Masters Degrees (Economics)

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2D irregular strip packing at Kohler signs
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014-12) Bossenger, Wayne; Nieuwoudt, Isabelle; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Kohler Signs (PTY) Ltd is a sign production company located in Cape Town, South Africa. They manufacture and install signs for the City of Cape Town and private companies as well as manufacture advertisement signs to be placed on vehicles. Road signs consist of steel sheets that are cut and bent to the appropriate size and frame, and an image design, which is cut from re ective vinyl, are applied to the bent steel sheet. The image design consists of various letters, numbers and symbols which are categorised as irregular items. When these irregular items are combined in a distinctive way, with the use of di erent coloured vinyl, they convey a message to the road user which may be to yield for pedestrians crossing the street, or indicate to the road user the various highway exits that exist on the interchange ahead. These irregular items are placed upon re ective vinyl for cutting which results in vinyl o cuts that are wasted. The focus of this thesis is to minimise the waste incurred by placing these irregular items upon the vinyl in an optimal and timely manner for industry use. The vinyl printer, which cuts the irregular items out of the vinyl, consists of a xed width and is only limited in height by the vinyl itself. Thus, this problem may be described as a Two Dimensional Irregular Strip Packing Problem. These irregular items have only a few possible heights for each type of irregular item packed, which allows these irregular items to be packed as a level packing problem. The items are packed within levels as though they are regular items with the assistance of a prede ned rule-set. In this thesis various packing algorithms and image processing methodologies from the literature are researched and used to develop a new packing algorithm for this speci c problem. The newly developed algorithm is put through various benchmarks to test its performance. Some of these benchmarks are procured from Kohler Signs themselves, whereas others are randomly generated under certain conditions. These benchmarks reveal that the newly developed algorithm performs better for both the minimisation of waste and the minimisation of algorithm running time than the tried and trusted techniques utilised in industry by Kohler Signs.
An analysis of the role of impact assessment legislation in facilitating sustainable development : a case study of Tanzania
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-04) Alfred, Emanoel R.; Muller, Anneke; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Please refer to full text for abstract.
An analysis of the sustainability of the United States Government (USG) aid-funded non-governmental organisations (NGOS) in the Namibian health sector
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-12) Aipinge, Hilja Namene; Kaulihowa, T.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study researched the sustainability of USG aid-funded local NGOs in the Namibian health sector. The first objective of the study was to analyse the continuity of NGO operations and the likely consequences of reduced PEPFAR funding on the key programmatic areas of NGOs such as the HIV/AIDS prevention, care and support services. The second objective was to investigate the other sources of funding that may be available to ensure sustainability of the NGOs. The study largely employed a qualitative approach and a descriptive analysis technique was used. A comparative case study assessment of seven NGOs that had received USAID/PEPFAR funding at any point during the period 2007-2013 was provided. The NGOs included Catholic AIDS Action, Church Alliance for Orphans, Katutura Youth Enterprise Centre, Nawa Life Trust, Project HOPE, Society for Family Health and Lilfe/Line Child/Line. The research findings were analysed and used to develop a set of conclusions and recommendations that could help to improve funding, ensure continuity of NGOs and sustain the health gains achieved over the years. The study found that on average PEPFAR constituted 80 per cent of the NGOs’ revenue and that due to the reduction in funding as well as the shift in PEPFAR’s focus to HIV treatment as prevention, the health gains achieved over the years could potentially be reversed if this behaviour did not change. The research suggested, amongst others, that the long-term sustainability of the programmes and the continuity of NGOs is dependent upon support from local governments. Literature has shown that local governments elsewhere have acknowledged the role that NGOs play and, therefore, created systems to allocate funding to NGOs, which practices can be extended to the Namibian situation. The recommendations further encouraged NGOs to embark on self-financing strategies by appointing dedicated personnel with the capacity to focus on fundraising activities with a target of achieving 50 per cent of income self-generated.
An approach to human development in rural Western Cape with specific reference to farm workers
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2005-12) Tregurtha, Norma; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Using the conceptual framework of the human development approach as proposed by Amartya Sen, this dissertation attempts to measure the absolute and relative development status of Western Cape farm workers for 1996 and 2001. The dissertation begins by presenting a critical analysis of the traditional neo-classical model of development, and goes further to demonstrate how, from the early 1970s, the validity of this model was increasingly questioned by the broader development fraternity and eventually supplanted by the human development approach in the 1990s. The human development approach is based on two conceptual roots namely; social exclusion theory and the capability model of Amartya Sen. Social exclusion theory identifies important themes such as gender and culture which the neo-classical development approach failed to reflect in its theoretical and methodological structures while the capability model establishes the philosophical and theoretical foundations of human development. More specifically it clarifies the question: 'what is wellbeing, how do we measure it and how is it linked to development and poverty? From the perspective of the human development approach, wellbeing is about being able to exercise economic, social and political choice or freedom. These freedoms are labelled capabilities and are they are derived from functioning choices. A functioning represents different aspects of the state of a person, and can either be an activity such as working or a state of existence such as being educated. A functioning is an achievement whereas a capability is the possible options or choices open to a person. It is on the basis of a person's capability set that an evaluation of their level of wellbeing is possible. The human development approach therefore measures development in terms of capabilities The key methodological challenges related to measuring development in terms of human capabilities are numerous. The theory of human development does not specify which capabilities to include when measuring poverty or wellbeing, in addition it provides no method to rank capabilities. Capabilities can simultaneously expand in some areas while contract in others. Because there is no method of ranking capabilities it is impossible to conclude whether on balance, development has taken place. Finally on a practical level the data requirements to measure wellbeing in a multivariate way are significant and are more often than not based on detailed household socio-economic surveys that are not easily replicated over time. For these reasons, while development economists endorse the theory of human development on an ideological and strategic level, methodologically there is still a tendency to measure it in terms of income levels. Despite these challenges a number of empirical applications of the human development approach have emerged in recent years and a cross-section of these studies is described as part of this dissertation. The main methodological issues that have to be confronted when operationalising the human development approach are also documented while the appropriateness of using the theory of fuzzy sets to measure vague concepts such as poverty and wellbeing, is emphasized. Drawing on data from the 1996 and 2001 Population Census this dissertation confronts these measurement challenges and by limiting the analysis to 6 functionings namely; housing, housing services, education, health, social relations, employment and economic achievements, attempts to measure the overall development status of Western Cape farm workers. By comparing this result with the achievement of other labour groups such as the unemployed and workers employed elsewhere in the economy it is also possible to conclude on their relative development status. With respect to functioning achievement (measured as fuzzy scores), in 2001 farm workers scored the lowest of all the labour groups in terms of housing services, social relations and education achievement. In terms of their access to economic resources, while farm workers individual and household monthly income levels exceeded that of the unemployed - their fuzzy score was roughly half of that achieved by workers in other sectors. These various functionings were weighted and aggregated to arrive at an overall wellbeing indicator, and almost no difference could be detected in the score achieved by farm workers and the unemployed. This result was found to be relatively insensitive to the weight assigned to a particular functioning. While there is almost no difference in the overall level of human development "enjoyed" by farm workers and the unemployed, a large difference was found between farm workers and other workers in the economy. It can be argued that this discrepancy is indicative of the high concentration of unskilled workers found in the agricultural sector. However when occupation was brought into consideration, a relatively large discrepancy in development levels between farm workers and employed unskilled workers, could still be detected. In terms of gender, overall women farm workers scored slightly higher than men, however in terms of personal income they scored considerably lower than men. This difference could not be attributed to differences in the number of hours worked per week and confirms the findings of other studies that showed that women farm workers do not receive equal wages for equal work effort. In terms of development status, the results generated by the 1996 population census, were consistent with 2001 however, here farm workers scored poorly in terms of the housing, housing services, education and social relations functioning. It was only with respect to the employment and economic resources functionings that farm workers ranked above the unemployed. By applying the frequency-based membership functions generated for 1996 to the 2001 data set, it was possible to detect absolute changes in development status that took place between 1996 and 2001. Relative to the other labour groups, farm workers consistently exhibited the highest rate of progress. Education, social relations and housing services functionings scores in 2001, were 20% higher than 1996 levels. Key Words: Poverty, development, wellbeing, human development approach, capabilities, functionings, fuzzy sets, Western Cape, Western Cape agriculture, farm workers
Artikel 9C van die inkomstebelastingwet met spesiale verwysing na aktiewe en passiewe inkomste
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 1998-12) Wiese, Adelle; Matthee, J. A.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the Fifth Interim Report of the Katz Commission recommendations were made on a number of fundamental tax issues, including the distinction between the source and residence principle. The Commission decided that the source principle should remain but that a distinction between "active" and "passive" income should be made. "Active" income should then be taxed on the source principle and "passive" income on the residence principle. With effect from 1 July 1997 exchange controls for South African residents were softened, which meant that South Africans could thereafter invest in foreign countries to a limited extent. To protect the South African tax base, sections 9C and 90 were incorporated in the Income Tax Act with effect from 1 July 1997. Section 9C regulates the taxation of investment income earned in foreign countries. The main purpose of this study was to investigate the taxation of foreign investment income in South Africa. For this purpose a critical analysis of section 9C was done within the context of the recommendations made by the Katz Commission in their Fifth Report. The focus of the study was aimed at the requirements for the exclusion of so-called active investment income according to section 9C(3)(a). In the analysis of section 9C it was necessary to determine where the terms used in the section were derived from. The terms which are not new in the South African tax context were analysed based on the opinions of tax specialists and national case law. The terms which are new in the South African tax context were mostly derived from international models of tax conventions and foreign tax codes. These were analysed according to the use thereof mainly in the Model Tax Convention on Income and on capital of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Commentaries thereon. The critical analysis of section 9C also included the applicability of the section on other sections in the Income Tax Act, a brief commentary on section 90 and the relief provided to taxpayers where the section leads to double taxation. The ability of the South African Revenue Service to collect the tax, the effect of the tax on immigrants and the effect of the electronic future on the tax were also investigated. The conclusion arrived at in this study is that most of the terms in section 9C are based on internationally used terms and could be analysed according to international tax conventions and case law. The South African Revenue Service will have to provide guidelines for the uncertainties and provide measures to rectify the irregularities and inconsistencies found in the section. In the light of further examinations to be done by the South African Revenue Service, based on the recommendations of the Katz Commission in their Fifth Report, section 9C provides a set of internationally accepted principles as a solid base for future regulation.
Assessing cartel detection and damages in simulated markets : a comparative study of econometric and machine learning approaches
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2024-03) Visser, Amy Sharon; Boshoff, Willem; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: Collusion among firms, with the intent to artificially elevate prices, has far-reaching implications for market competition and consumer welfare. This thesis explores the detection of structural breaks in simulated price data under collusion, and their subsequent impact on damage estimation. This contribution is significant in the field of competition economics as it allows for consideration of the implications for econometric methods aimed at identifying and measuring collusive effects in the age of machine learning alternatives. A combination of econometric and machine learning approaches, including Lasso regression, random forest regression and classification, logistic regression, and Bai-Perron structural break testing are rigorously examined against four distinct data generating processes simulated to mimic the behaviours of cartels observed in the market. These include a deterministic switch data generating process, a recurrent switch data generating process, a phased switch data generating process, and a Markov-switching data generating process. The study reveals that the Lasso model consistently outperforms the other methods in estimating structural breaks, demonstrating superior performance in identifying cartel and competitive pricing behaviours across the different linear data generating processes. Conversely, the Bai-Perron test exhibits the poorest performance, particularly in Phase and Markov-switching transitions, highlighting its limitations in capturing nuanced structural changes. Furthermore, damage estimation was performed using dummy variables generated by each of the models. All of the empirical models perform relatively well in capturing damages, with the exception of the Bai-Perron model when applied to the phase and Markov-switching data generating processes, further emphasising its limited utility in detecting nuanced switching mechanisms in pricing behaviour. To enhance the analysis, damage estimation was alternatively conducted by predicting movements in the price variable for the Lasso and random forest models. These modifications revealed slight discrepancies in damage predictions, with the Lasso model overpredicting and the random forest model underpredicting damages. Nevertheless, both models remain highly accurate in capturing the economic impact of structural changes in competitive pricing. This research contributes to the field of competition economics by providing a comprehensive analysis of structural break detection and damage estimation methodologies, ultimately demonstrating the practical advantages of the Lasso regression model when applied to linear pricing models. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and analysts seeking to better understand and address changes in competitive market dynamics.
Assessing the economic impact of road traffic injuries on privately insured healthcare recipients in South Africa during the covid-19 pandemic
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2024-03) Mboko, Lewis Tendai; Sophia, du Plessis; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: Background: Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) are a global public health problem, with around 1.3 million deaths annually. According to the World Health Organisation (2020), road traffic injuries are the 10th leading cause of death in upper-middle-income countries and constitute one of the five major diseases and conditions with the highest mortality and morbidity in South Africa (Mabuza, Titus and Adeniji, 2020). Cost of Injury (COI) studies are essential to estimate the burden of injuries and are good guides for policymaking, priority setting, and public health management. However, a few COI studies have been conducted in low- and middle-income countries, even though more than 85% of injuries and death happen in the developing world (Wijnen, 2021). South Africa is not an exception to the lack of sufficient studies to assess the socioeconomic impact of road traffic crashes. The lack of studies makes it difficult to assess the cost-effectiveness of prevention methods, resulting in a lack of comprehension of the problem's scope. Aim: This study aimed to comprehensively assess the economic burden of road traffic injuries in South Africa by incorporating both direct medical costs and indirect costs from a healthcare system perspective in the private sector. Methods: Employing a retrospective Cost of Illness (COI) approach, the study evaluated the direct medical costs of road traffic injuries among BestMed-insured patients involved in accidents during 2020 and 2021. Furthermore, Indirect costs, including productivity loss and long-term healthcare expenses, were estimated using data from previous studies. Detailed claims information was utilized to track patient treatment costs specifically related to the respective accidents. Results: The average medical direct cost for treating a single road traffic injury in the study cohort was R58 964 ($3211), equivalent to 588% of South Africa's health expenditure per capita and 50.7% of the average Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. Incorporating indirect costs substantially increased the economic burden of RTIs. The average indirect cost per crash stood at R 196,699 ($11,015). Factors such as gender, comorbidities, complications, hospital stay duration, and Major Diagnostic Categories (MDCs) significantly influenced injury costs. Conclusion: South Africa's average cost of treating road traffic injuries is significantly higher than the country's healthcare expenditure per capita. Cost of Injury analyses, stratification of costs, and employing regression models with accurate cost data provides a better understanding of the overall economic burden of road traffic injuries in South Africa. Placing a financial value on the tangible and intangible losses attributed to road traffic crashes makes the need for immediate and far-reaching intervention clear to policymakers and decision-makers.
Assessing the validity of the Structure, Conduct and Performance paradigm as theoretical framework for the application of competition policy in the long-term insurance sector of South Africa
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2001-12) Blaauw, Petrus Arnoldus; Theron, N. M.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the recent past the industrialised world bore witness to staggering growth in the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. In the face of this growth process economic theory had to confront new challenges in explaining and interpreting economic phenomena. The complex nature of inter- and intra-firm relationships forced a pragmatic stance on policy makers to ensure that all actions are efficient and competitive. Two prominent schools of thought with contradictory viewpoints emerged. The Structuralists built upon the foundations laid by Bain (1951) and Mason (1939). This implied a theoretical framework, namely the Structure, Conduct and Perofrmance paradigm (SCP paradigm) that could be used to explain inter- and intra-firm relations according to a simple forward causality argument. The Structuralists' interpretation of the SCP paradigm provides strong support for the implementation of deconcentration measures by competition authorities. The Chicago School, however, developed a counter-argument inspired by Demsetz's (1973) efficiency hypothesis. According to them, causality is reversed and deconcentration measures are used at the expense of the most efficient firms. The thesis aims to study these contradictory arguments as well as their evolution in South Africa. Various researchers in South Africa have built on the arguments of the Structuralists and the Chicagoans regarding the manufacturing sector. The theoretical methods implemented by them will be applied to the long-term insurance industry to assess the validity of the SCP paradigm as a theoretical framework for the application of competition policy.
Barriers to private housing development in townships in the Western Cape
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013-12) Helsby, Claire Margaret; Essop, Hassan; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : Since 1994, the focus of the South African government on subsidy housing has resulted in 2.3 million housing units being built. But despite this achievement, the official housing backlog figure in 2010 was a considerable 2.1 million housing units. With government’s focus on subsidy housing, little development has occurred in the gap market (households who earn between R3 500 and R16 000 per month). The gap market is households who can, to some extent, provide for their own housing needs. However, there is a shortage of housing supply in this segment of the market, so even if households can afford to purchase a house, there is no such house available. The problem is further exacerbated in the Western Cape due to high land values. This research highlights that more affordable land, suitable for affordable housing development, is available in the townships of the Western Cape. Private development in the township and affordable market, is still, however, insignificant compared to the government subsidy market. This study therefore investigates the reasons why developers choose not to develop within the gap market in the township/affordable areas. The findings revealed that developers avoided development in the township/affordable market due to five encompassing barriers, namely: land, finance, government inefficiencies, thin profit margins and the risky township/affordable market environment.
The Bass diffusion model for communication technology globally and the economic factors that influence it
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2019-04) Boucher, Bradley; Rankin, Neil; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY : Globally over the period 1995 to 2015 there has been an increase in the everyday use of mobile phones and the associated technologies that come with it, but this has led to a digital divide in skill and access levels to these technologies between developed and developing countries. This paper looks to expand on previous research as to the cause and pattern of the adoption rates for mobile users which is used to provide people with access to cellular technologies such as mobile voice communications, sms and internet services. A view of the adoption rate of internet usage will also be analysed in order to have a secondary technology to compare against. It was found that the percentage of the total population that is older than 14 increases the rate of adoption and generational changes in the underlying technology led to a decrease in adoption rates. It was also found that while the wealth of a country is useful for predicting the initial level of adoption rates, it was a poor predictor with regards to year on year changes in adoption rates.
Behoeftes en waardes van kleurlingvroue ten opsigte van behuisingsomstandighede
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 1980) Van Wyk, Anna Sophia; Bekker, S. B.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Department of Economics.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: As gevolg van die geweldige behuisingstekort onder Kleurlinge in Wes-Kaapland en 'n toenemende ontplooing van Staatsprogramme ten opsigte van die beskikbaarstelling van behuising vir minder gegoede groepe, is kennis van beide die huidige behuisingsopset, asook die behoeftes en waardeoriëntasies van inwoners van hierdie skemas uiters noodsaaklik vir toekomstige beplanning, voorkoming van foutiewe optrede, asook die daarstelling van 'n evolusionêre samelewing en dus die suksesvolle uitvoering van die Regering se behuisingsbeleid.
Belastingoorwegings om in gedagte te hou by samesmeltings en oornames van Suid-Afrikaanse maatskappye
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2000-12) De Bruin, Magdalena Maria; Van Schalkwyk, C. J.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic & Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: TAX CONSIDERATIONS OF MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS During the past few years the South African business environment experienced a considerable increase in corporate mergers and acquisitions. At a corporate tax rate of thirty per cent, the tax implications of mergers and acquisitions have an important impact on the financial success thereof. By way of background information, a short exposition of the characteristics, the various forms and the reasons for the increase, of mergers and acquisitions is provided. Essentially a merger or acquisition entails the acquisition of either the business of, or the shares in, the target company. A comparison is drawn between the tax consequences of the above two options for both parties to mergers and acquisitions. The composition of the purchase price payable by an acquiring company in respect of the acquisition of the target company's business or shares may have far reaching tax consequences. Consequently, the most commonly used arrangements relating to payment of the purchase price are scrutinized from a tax point of view. The bulk of the study consists of an analysis of particular aspects of mergers and acquisitions, which may, depending on how a particular transaction is structured, result in important tax benefits. The analysis is directed towards, firstly, establishing the tax consequences arising from mergers and acquisitions and, secondly, suggesting tax efficient structuring methods or alerting against structuring options that may have detrimental tax results. Some of the proposed tax structuring techniques have tax efficient results for one party to the merger or acquisition, but result in corresponding negative tax effects for the other. There are, however, opportunities to structure a tax efficient transaction in such a way to ensure that both parties share in the tax benefit. lt is even possible to, in respect of certain aspects of mergers and acquisitions, achieve a tax efficient result for both parties to the transaction without any commensurate disadvantage, or without them having to share the benefits thereof. lt is important to evaluate tax planning strategies against the general antiavoidance measures contained in the doctrine of substance over form and in tax legislation. Consequently, in the final analysis, the applicability of the antiavoidance measures to the tax planning strategies proposed in this study, is considered.
Cape Colony marriage in perspective
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013-03) Cilliers, Jeanne; Fourie, Johan; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Despite the importance of studying marriage patterns for a better understanding of colonial life, the subject has received little attention from a purely economic perspective. In his seminal work, European Marriage Patterns in Perspective (1965), J. Hajnal introduces the notion of a European Marriage Pattern (EMP) emerging in the late Middle Ages which became characteristic of Western European society in the early modern period. Hajnal points out several distinct aspects to distinguish Western European marriages from all other societies of the time. While existing literature in this field has typically focussed on the demographic features of marriage patterns, such as the average age of marriage, the share of the population that had never married, and the effects of the EMP on fertility and resulting population growth, little attention has been paid to the underlying mechanisms and causes of the EMP. Using genealogical records to track the ancestry of colonial settlers in South Africa, this study will investigate the evolution of marriage in the Cape Colony. The focus is primarily on the persistence of the EMP and attempt to determine whether it continued to characterise the marriages of European descendents outside of Europe, or whether a distinct marriage pattern emerged in the Cape Colony in the eighteenth and early nineteenth century. It will explore the effect that such patterns may have historically had on family size, standards of living and life chances for European settlers at the Cape, with an aim to shed new light on the underlying causes of the EMP, by critically evaluating De Moor and van Zanden’s (2010) three hypotheses of the origins of this distinct marriage pattern.
The Cape Town International Convention Centre : a positive economic impact created through the legalisation of gambling
(Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch, 2004-04) Voges, Pierre; Black, Philip A.; University of Stellenbosch. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The legalisation of gambling in South Africa was perceived by many as an unnecessary vice that would bring social decay in a country that is already battling to cope with a wide array of social woes, such as unemployment, crime, etc. Anti gambling protestors argued that South African society is not sufficiently developed to cope with an industry that diverts money from normal household budgetary expenditure patterns to the many forms of gambling that suddenly became legal. Protestors also argued that gambling tax is just another tax on an already overtaxed society. Many of these arguments were justified and the legalisation of gambling was clearly an issue, which had to be dealt with carefully. Politicians, the custodians of a well-managed political system through pro-active policies that will be to the benefit of a country and its people were in a particularly difficult position with the creation of a legalized gambling industry and had to weigh policy between the advantage of additional tax revenue and the disadvantage of adding to the social ills of South African society. In terms of the Constitution of South Africa gambling was a concurrent competence and the respective provinces had an opportunity to develop gambling policy that will be beneficial to the relevant province. Although the national Gambling Act provided the broad parameters in which provincial legislation had to be developed, provinces had ample opportunity to be innovative in respect of provincial gambling legislation. After the legalisation of gambling provinces moved quickly to ensure that casinos were developed, mainly to create a larger revenue base through gambling tax. Most provinces were cash-strapped, as their share of the national budget was not sufficient to deal with the long list of provincial development priorities. A way had to be found to supplement the national government contributions and gambling tax was an attractive option. The Western Cape Province moved somewhat slower in the promulgation of provincial gambling legislation. There was a clear realisation that gambling was going to have a massive social impact on the population of the Western Cape and therefore had a clear objective to find ways to develop casinos in such a way that it would offset the negative impact of gambling. This thesis did not place any emphasis on the quantification of the social impact (such as lack of productivity, loss of employment, bankruptcy, domestic violence, divorce, etc). The objective was to show that the allocation of a gambling licence could be used to create infrastructure that is not linked or related to a casino. Such infrastructure is normally in high demand in cities or regions, which are emerging as tourist destinations, but the infrastructure would not be developed by the government, as the capital cost is too high, nor by the private sectors as the profit margins are too low. The Western Cape used its allocation of five casino licences in terms of the National Gambling Act to create an impact on the whole of the region by dividing the province into five regions and allocating a casino licence to each of the regions. Since 1994 Cape Town and the Western Cape have gained prominence internationally as a tourist destination. It was soon clear that the city and region would not be able to cope with the influx of tourists due to a lack of hotel rooms and other tourism infrastructure. It was also clear that the tourism industry would not show the required growth without facilities, such as a convention centres. It is particularly a convention centre that became an urgent element in Cape Town as convention business has become a rapidly growing business with a potentially significant impact in terms of convention expenditure and the resulting economic impact on a city. The Western Cape developed gambling policy determinations made it clear that in the case of the five regions, casino bid companies were obliged to include tourism infrastructure that would add value to a particular region. It was made clear that such infrastructure should not necessarily be linked with a casino and could be off-site. The policy determinations were clear in its stipulations that stand-alone casinos would not be entertained in the adjudication process. The development of an international convention centre became an important criterion in the allocation of a casino licence in the Cape Metropole. Although casino bid companies included different kinds of infrastructure in their bids (mostly projects that would have a positive impact on tourism) the development of an international convention centre became a strong factor and the casino licence for the Cape Metropole was allocated to the company that included the development of an international convention centre in the their casino bid application. Although convention centers are rarely profitable they are known to change the face of cities and regions in terms of their economic impact, not only the impact in terms of urban renewal opportunity, but also attracting domestic and international convention center delegate expenditure and the expenditure on hotels, food and beverage, transport, and general tourism expenditure. The direct, indirect and induced economic impact of this expenditure in the Western Cape and Cape Town result in the off-setting of the negative social impact and ensure that the benefits of the legalisation of gambling is extended to projects that would be unlikely developments in the absence of a casino licence allocated. The study undertaken demonstrates the economic impact (direct, indirect and induced) of the Cape Town International Convention Centre. It also shows the impact of the center on the promotion of tourism, including convention center delegates returning to the Western Cape for leisure purposes in the future. It culminates in the conclusion that the allocation of a casino licence should not only be the development of a stand-alone casino, but also the creation of tourism infrastructure that offsets the negative impact of gambling.
Captive insurance companies : a theoretical and empirical study
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003-12) Le Roux, Magdalena Elizabeth; Mostert, F. J.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Business Management.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Much research has been done on risk coverage within the field of the traditional insurance market, but the concept of alternative risk transfer is fairly new to the world of risk management. The need for more innovative, multi-faceted approaches to meet possible losses, together with the growing resistance to the cross-subsidisation inherent in traditional insurance, has initiated the development of the captive insurance industry as an alternative risk transfer mechanism. The objective of this research was to study the application of captive insurance as a risk management mechanism for managers. The objective comprised a modelling approach for managers to handle the strategic implications of establishing and operating a captive insurer. The tasks that were required for this assignment were as follows: • The completion of a literature study of the basic theory available on captive insurance as an internal risk financing mechanism for management; • The collection of relevant empirical information on the subject by means of questionnaires, which had to be based on the literature study; • The critical analysis of the collected data; and • The development of a decision-making model based on the outcome of the available information, that could provide a practical guideline for management to decide on the establishment and operation of a captive insurer. Twenty-five questionnaires were sent out during February 2003 to cover all the registered onshore and cell captive insurance companies in South Africa. Offshore insurance companies could not be included in this study due to article 33 of the Reserve Bank's Act no. 90 of 1989 regarding confidential information. Of the 25 captive insurance companies, 21 companies completed the questionnaires, and three respondents declared that they did not perform captive insurance activities anymore. A response rate of over 95 per cent is therefore achieved. The information obtained from the questionnaires was summarised on a SPSS spreadsheet and subjected to a statistical analysis to form the bases for the empirical investigation. The results of the empirical study for onshore and cell captive insurers leads to conclusions regarding the importance of the objectives needed for establishing and operating the captive Insurer. The three most importantfactors which should determine the decision of a holding company to establish an onshore captive insurer were identified as the financial commitment of the holding company, the spreading of the risks of the holding company, and the retention capacity of the holding company. The three most importantfactors which should determine the decision of a holding company to operate an onshore captive insurer are the retention capacity of the holding company, the financial commitment of the holding company, and the management commitment of the holding company. The three most importantfactors which should determine the decision of a holding company to establish a cell captive insurer were identified as the spreading of the risks of the holding company, the retention capacity of the holding company, and the financial commitment of the holding company. The three most importantfactors which should determine the decision of a holding company to operate a cell captive insurer are the financial commitment of the holding company, the spreading of the risks of the holding company, and the management commitment of the holding company. A decision-making model for both onshore and cell captive insurers was developed as a tool for risk managers when deciding on the establishment and operation of a captive insurer as part of their risk management programme. The resulting conclusions and recommendations of this assignment are largely based on the personal viewpoints of the captive insurers active in the South African captive insurance industry. It is therefore recommended that future research also includes the role and views of the holding companies.
Choosing investment solutions for South African long-term investors with prospect theory-type risk preferences
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2020-03) Mazwai, Osagyefo; Gilbert, Evan; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT : This thesis investigates the optimal choice of investment style for a representative long term South African investor assuming a Prospect Theory-type utility functions. The relative performance of Balanced Funds, Absolute Return Funds, General Equity Funds, and Flexible Funds were investigated in this context. A fundamental insight of Prospect Theory is that human beings are more responsive to losses than gains, as demonstrated by the S-shaped value function. These subtleties are ignored by Expected Utility Theory and their associated risk measures (most importantly, variance) may lead to portfolio designs that are inconsistent with investors’ risk preferences. Two methods for investigating the optimal investment style for these investors were applied (namely, Historical Analysis and Filtered Historical Simulations). The Historical Analysis method reveals that Balanced Funds offer the highest returns, but the Sharpe ratio shows that Absolute Return Funds have the best risk-return trade off. Using Prospect theorybased utility functions with differing parameters reflecting differing risk preferences, the Filtered Historical Simulation method reveals that Absolute Return Funds are most likely to be the optimal investment style for an investor exhibiting either severe or mild “loss aversion”. For investors with “no loss aversion”, the optimal investment style is Balanced Funds which deliver the highest expected cumulative utility. This study shows that the choice of investment style is dependent on the level of loss aversion. This suggests the need to estimate these for South African investors as the parameters used in this study are derived from international studies that are relatively dated.
A comparison between existing mortality risk algorithms and machine learning techniques
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2022-12) Scholtz, Jenny; Burger, Rulof; Retief, Riani; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: This thesis assesses the feasibility and benefits of using the patient data of a large private South African hospital group to estimate a model of mortality risk using flexible machine learning techniques. Specifically, I investigate whether such a model would have been able to outperform a commonly used medical scoring system, SAPS 3, in predicting mortality during the second half of the Covid-19 pandemic. A LightGBM machine learning model is shown to be much more accurate in predicting mortality (76.15% accuracy, compared to 56.58% for SAPS 3) for the Covid-19 positive sample. Roughly half of this gain in predictive accuracy is obtained from using the most recent and relevant data to train the model, while the remaining lift is attributable to allowing the model to find patient symptoms and attributes that are measured but ignored by SAPS 3. Interestingly, the flexible functional form of the machine learning models, which allow the predictors to affect mortality through non-linearities and interactions, has a negligible effect on predictive accuracy. The same method is also found to produce more accurate forecasts for patients who tested negative for Covid-19, but this improvement is smaller than for Covid-19 positive sample. The results of this thesis illustrate that machine learning methods are valuable tools to predict patient outcomes, particularly when there are unexpected shifts in the relationship between patient features and patient outcomes. Large hospital groups can obtain more accurate forecasts from a dynamic scoring system which is frequently frequently retrained on their own patient data.
The conceptualisation and application of service-learning in higher education : a case study
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2003-03) Daniels, Freda J.; Kapp, C. A.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Education. Dept. of Education Policy Studies.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The central question that this research study addresses is whether higher education institutions in South Africa are sufficiently meeting the needs of their students, by contextualising and integrating their academic curricula with service delivery in communities. The higher education sector has been criticized for not adequately promoting and developing social responsibility in the context of civic awareness among their students. This study suggests that service-learning could become a vital force in educational change and promote social equity by enabling the advancement of historically disadvantaged communities. Service-learning could thus be the vehicle that links academic learning outcomes, service in communities and civic education. The purpose of this study is to explore the theoretical foundations of servicelearning in order to achieve a deeper understanding of what service-learning entails. The Occupational Therapy Department of the University of Stellenbosch was selected as a case study to critically assess to what extent it has conceptualised, planned, implemented and assessed its service-learning programmes in terms of the key elements, principles and goals of service-learning. The research strategy for this study is a qualitative case study. Qualitative data was obtained through the completion of an open-ended questionnaire by the final year Occupational Therapy students. Semi-structured interviews were also conducted with the head of the department and different representatives of the community project that was selected for the purpose of this research study. The study concludes that the Occupational Therapy Department did in fact, integrate its academic curriculum outcomes with service delivery in the community. However, the development of civic awareness among students needs to be explicitly linked to the academic learning outcomes and service delivery in communities.
Correlating factors of U.S. presidential speeches with stock market movements - a machine learning approach
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2023-03) Rees, Pablo; van Lill, Dawie; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH SUMMARY: The literature relating textual to stock market data is deep, but the relationship between speeches given by political figures and stock markets is relatively undefined. This research begins to rectify this by exploring the relationship between U.S. presidential speeches and daily price movements in the S&P 500 index. It was possible to explore this relationship by using natural language processing techniques, econometric time-series analysis, and machine learning models. It was found that models including presidential speech data can achieve prediction accuracy of about 60% over an S&P 500 index price movement proxy. This is an increase of about 0.3% (0.599 vs 0.601) over the models that did not include the presidential speech data (without losing ground in either recall or precision). Notably, this result was drawn from 71 years of data at a daily resolution. Thus, it is concluded that presidential speeches hold predictive power over stock market movements and that this relationship can be used to improve the power of predictive models.
Credit demand and credit rationing in the informal financial sector in Uganda
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2005-4) Okurut, Francis Nathan; Schoombee, G. A.; Van der Berg, S.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study was motivated by the need to determine the key factors that influence credit demand and credit rationing in the informal financial markets so as to contribute to policy formulation to improve access for the poor in Uganda to the broader (formal and informal) financial sector. The results of the study suggest that credit demand in the informal financial sector is positively and significantly influenced by capacity related variables (education level, and household expenditure) at the household level, and the informal lenders' credit rationing behaviour is also negatively and significantly influenced by household wealth factors (asset values). The same variables have similar effects in the models for credit demand and credit rationing in the broader financial sector. Since households demand credit for both investment and consumption smoothing, improved access to the broader financial sector will enable them to acquire more wealth, and move out of poverty in the long run. The policy options to improve small borrower access to the broader financial sector include provision of incentives to banks to serve the smaller borrowers, development of credit reference bureaus, provision of innovative insurance products to the poor, and broader economic policies that enable households to acquire more wealth. In addition appropriate linkages need to be developed between the formal and informal financial sectors so as to broaden the financial system.

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