The system will be unavailable for updates from 12:30 on Tuesday 23 May to prepare for the upgrade of the software platform.

Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths

Jombart, Thibaut ; Van Zandvoort, Kevin ; Russell, Timothy W. ; Jarvis, Christopher I. ; Gimma, Amy ; Abbott, Sam ; Clifford, Sam ; Funk, Sebastian ; Gibbs, Hamish ; Liu, Yang ; Pearson, Carl A. B. ; Bosse, Nikos I. ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group ; Eggo, Rosalind, M. ; Kucharski, Adam J. ; Edmunds, W. John (2020)

CITATION: Jombart, T. et al. 2020. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. doi:10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761.

The original publication is available at


We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, userfriendly, online tool.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: