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Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
Jombart, Thibaut ; Van Zandvoort, Kevin ; Russell, Timothy W. ; Jarvis, Christopher I. ; Gimma, Amy ; Abbott, Sam ; Clifford, Sam ; Funk, Sebastian ; Gibbs, Hamish ; Liu, Yang ; Pearson, Carl A. B. ; Bosse, Nikos I. ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group ; Eggo, Rosalind, M. ; Kucharski, Adam J. ; Edmunds, W. John (2020)
CITATION: Jombart, T. et al. 2020. Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths. doi:10.1101/2020.03.10.20033761.
The original publication is available at https://www.medrxiv.org
We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be present in that population. This suggests containment via contact tracing will be challenging at this point, and other response strategies should be considered. Our approach is implemented in a publicly available, userfriendly, online tool.