Extinction risk from climate change

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dc.contributor.authorThomas C.D.
dc.contributor.authorCameron A.
dc.contributor.authorGreen R.E.
dc.contributor.authorBakkenes M.
dc.contributor.authorBeaumont L.J.
dc.contributor.authorCollingham Y.C.
dc.contributor.authorErasmus B.F.N.
dc.contributor.authorFerreira De Siqueira M.
dc.contributor.authorGrainger A.
dc.contributor.authorHannah L.
dc.contributor.authorHughes L.
dc.contributor.authorHuntley B.
dc.contributor.authorVan Jaarsveld A.S.
dc.contributor.authorMidgley G.F.
dc.contributor.authorMiles L.
dc.contributor.authorOrtega-Huerta M.A.
dc.contributor.authorPeterson A.T.
dc.contributor.authorPhillips O.L.
dc.contributor.authorWilliams S.E.
dc.date.accessioned2011-05-15T16:02:08Z
dc.date.available2011-05-15T16:02:08Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.description.abstractClimate change over the past ∼30 years has produced numerous shifts in the distributions and abundances of species and has been implicated in one species-level extinction. Using projections of species' distributions for future climate scenarios, we assess extinction risks for sample regions that cover some 20% of the Earth's terrestrial surface. Exploring three approaches in which the estimated probability of extinction shows a power-law relationship with geographical range size, we predict, on the basis of mid-range climate-warming scenarios for 2050, that 15-37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'committed to extinction'. When the average of the three methods and two dispersal scenarios is taken, minimal climate-warming scenarios produce lower projections of species committed to extinction (∼18%) than mid-range (∼24%) and maximum-change (∼35%) scenarios. These estimates show the importance of rapid implementation of technologies to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and strategies for carbon sequestration.
dc.description.versionArticle
dc.identifier.citationNature
dc.identifier.citation427
dc.identifier.citation6970
dc.identifier.issn280836
dc.identifier.other10.1038/nature02121
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/12321
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectEarth (planet)
dc.subjectGas emissions
dc.subjectGreenhouse effect
dc.subjectRisk assessment
dc.subjectCarbon sequestration
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectglobal warming
dc.subjectmass extinction
dc.subjectrisk assessment
dc.subjectarticle
dc.subjectcarbon sequestration
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectgas
dc.subjectgeographic distribution
dc.subjectgreenhouse
dc.subjectpriority journal
dc.subjectprobability
dc.subjectrisk assessment
dc.subjectspecies extinction
dc.subjectAnimals
dc.subjectBiodiversity
dc.subjectCarbon
dc.subjectConservation of Natural Resources
dc.subjectGeography
dc.subjectGreenhouse Effect
dc.subjectModels, Theoretical
dc.subjectRisk Assessment
dc.subjectSpecies Specificity
dc.subjectTime Factors
dc.titleExtinction risk from climate change
dc.typeArticle
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