Forecasting South African containers for international trade : a commodity-based approach

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dc.contributor.authorHavenga, Jan H.
dc.contributor.authorVan Eeden, Joubert
dc.date.accessioned2013-11-25T10:48:15Z
dc.date.available2013-11-25T10:48:15Z
dc.date.issued2011-11
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at http://www.jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/72en_ZA
dc.description.abstractThe most common approach used internationally for forecasting international trade containers is models based on the correlation between container trade and economic growth. While the strong historical correlation is indisputable, this paper argues that there will be saturation in the propensity to containerise as all the suitable volumes of the underlying commodities shift to containers over time. In addition, the link between freight transport and GDP will decouple as more sustainable approaches to economic development, and therefore freight transport, are necessitated by economic and environmental realities. A commodity-based model, taking into account the underlying drivers of containerisation, is proposed here as a more realistic forecast of container demand. This could have a material impact on how large-scale investment decisions are directed.en_ZA
dc.description.versionPublishers' Versionen_ZA
dc.format.extentp. 170-185 :ill.
dc.identifier.citationHavenga, J.H. & Van Eeden, J. 2011. Forecasting South African containers for international trade: a commodity-based approach. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 5(1): 170-185. doi: 10.4102/jtscm.v5i1.72 .en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1995-5235 (online)
dc.identifier.issn2310-8789 (print)
dc.identifier.otherdoi: 10.4102/jtscm.v5i1.72
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/85548
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherAOSIS OpenJournalsen_ZA
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyrighten_ZA
dc.subjectContainerization -- South Africa -- Forecastingen_ZA
dc.titleForecasting South African containers for international trade : a commodity-based approachen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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