Using Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the cost impact of systemic risk factors in a project portfolio : a case study
| dc.contributor.author | Joubert, F. J. | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.author | Snyman, M. | en_ZA |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-01-24T07:49:37Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-01-24T07:49:37Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2021 | |
| dc.description | CITATION: Joubert, F. J. & Snyman, M. 2021. Using Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the cost impact of systemic risk factors in a project portfolio : a case study. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 32(4):67-82, doi:10.7166/32-4-2518. | |
| dc.description | The original publication is available at http://sajie.journals.ac.za | |
| dc.description.abstract | ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In terms of project risk management, ‘systemic risk’ is identified as risks which are artefacts of the environment which a project is executed in, and are related to (i) the project team’s actions, (ii) how project controls are managed and interact, and (iii) how the project is planned and executed. This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the cost impact of systemic risk on a portfolio of projects by using risk quantification and Monte Carlo simulation, in the absence of a validated parametric risk model, to estimate the systemic risks in an entire portfolio of projects. The case study simulation results indicate a significant effect of systemic risks on the project portfolio risk profile, where systemic risks increased the P80 value of the contingency requirement by +85.6%. The successful management of systemic risk would contribute to project success by limiting unnecessary waste. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In terme van projekrisikobestuur word sistemiese risiko’s geïdentifiseer as risiko’s wat ʼn karakteristiek is van die omgewing waarbinne die projek uitgevoer word. Hierdie risiko’s hou verband met (i) die aksies van die projekbestuurspan, (ii) hoe projekkontroles bestuur word en ineenskakel, en (iii) hoe die projek beplan en uitgevoer word. Hierdie artikel stel ʼn metode voor wat gebruik kan word om die koste-impak van sistemiese risiko’s op ʼn projek portefeulje te bepaal waar daar ʼn gebrek is aan ʼn geldige paremetriese model vir die berekening van sistemiese risiko’s se impak op ʼn hele projekportefeulje. Dit word gedoen deur middel van risiko kwantifisering en Monte Carlo simulasie. Die resultaat toon ʼn noemenswaardige impak van sistemiese risiko’s op die risikoprofiel van die projekportefeulje, waar sistemiese risiko die gebeurlikheidsbegroting met +85.6 % verhoog het. Die suksesvolle bestuur van sistemiese risiko’s kan ʼn noemenswaardige effek op projek sukses uitoefen deur die beperking van onnodige vermorsing. | af_ZA |
| dc.description.uri | http://sajie.journals.ac.za/pub/article/view/2518 | |
| dc.description.version | Publisher's version | |
| dc.format.extent | 16 pages | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.citation | Joubert, F. J. & Snyman, M. 2021. Using Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the cost impact of systemic risk factors in a project portfolio : a case study. South African Journal of Industrial Engineering, 32(4):67-82, doi:10.7166/32-4-2518 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 2224-7890 (online) | |
| dc.identifier.issn | 1012-277X (print) | |
| dc.identifier.other | doi:10.7166/32-4-2518 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/124132 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_ZA | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | Southern African Institute for Industrial Engineering | en_ZA |
| dc.rights.holder | Authors retain copyright | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Project risk management | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Project mangement | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Risk management -- Systimatic | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Monte Carlo method | en_ZA |
| dc.title | Using Monte Carlo simulation to quantify the cost impact of systemic risk factors in a project portfolio : a case study | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Article | en_ZA |