South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA)
The South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) is a national research centre established under the Centre of Excellence programme of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation. The Centre focuses on research in quantitative modelling of the spatial and temporal patterns of disease. The immediate aim of the research is to understand and predict the development of various diseases, and thereby to provide advice on how best to combat them. Our research focuses on issues pertaining to HIV, TB and malaria, although not to the exclusion of other epidemiological problems.
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Sexual and reproductive health services utilization by female sex workers is contextspecific : results from a cross-sectional survey in India, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa
(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2017)Background: Female sex workers (FSWs) are extremely vulnerable to adverse sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes. To mitigate these risks, they require access to services covering not only HIV prevention but also ... -
Oncolytic potency and reduced virus tumorspecificity in oncolytic virotherapy. A mathematical modelling approach
(Public Library of Science, 2017)In the present paper, we address by means of mathematical modeling the following main question: How can oncolytic virus infection of some normal cells in the vicinity of tumor cells enhance oncolytic virotherapy? We formulate ... -
Host-seeking efficiency can explain population dynamics of the tsetse fly Glossina morsitans morsitans in response to host density decline
(Public Library of Science, 2017)Females of all blood-feeding arthropod vectors must find and feed on a host in order to produce offspring. For tsetse—vectors of the trypanosomes that cause human and animal African trypanosomiasis—the problem is more ... -
A dynamic model for estimating adult female mortality from ovarian dissection data for the tsetse fly Glossina pallidipes Austen sampled in Zimbabwe
(Public Library of Science, 2017)Human and animal trypanosomiasis, spread by tsetse flies (Glossina spp), is a major public health concern in much of sub-Saharan Africa. The basic reproduction number of vector-borne diseases, such as trypanosomiasis, is ... -
Exploring the potential of using cattle for malaria vector surveillance and control : a pilot study in western Kenya
(Biomed Central, 2017)Background: Malaria vector mosquitoes with exophilic and zoophilic tendencies, or with a high acceptance of alternative blood meal sources when preferred human blood-hosts are unavailable, may help maintain low but constant ... -
HIV as a cause of immune activation and immunosenescence
(Hindawi Publishing Corporation, 2017)Systemic immune activation has emerged as an essential component of the immunopathogenesis of HIV. It not only leads to faster disease progression, but also to accelerated decline of overall immune competence. HIV-associated ... -
Progress and prospects for the control of HIV and tuberculosis in South Africa : a dynamical modelling study
(Elsevier, 2017)Background: In September, 2016, South Africa adopted a policy of providing antiretroviral treatment to everyone infected with HIV irrespective of their CD4 cell count. Studies of universal treatment and expanded prevention ... -
Feasibility, acceptability and potential sustainability of a ‘diagonal’ approach to health services for female sex workers in Mozambique
(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2018-10-03)Background: Female sex workers (FSWs) in many settings have restricted access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services. We therefore conducted an implementation study to test a ‘diagonal’ intervention which ... -
Spatial distribution of leprosy in India : an ecological study
(BioMed Central, 2018-03-27)Background: As leprosy elimination becomes an increasingly realistic goal, it is essential to determine the factors that contribute to its persistence. We evaluate social and economic factors as predictors of leprosy ... -
Partner age differences and associated sexual risk behaviours among adolescent girls and young women in a cash transfer programme for schooling in Malawi
(BioMed Central, 2018-03-27)Background: Age disparities in sexual relationships have been proposed as a key risk factor for HIV transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa, but evidence remains inconclusive. The SIHR study, a cluster randomised trial of a ... -
Is younger really safer? A qualitative study of perceived risks and benefits of age-disparate relationships among women in Cape Town, South Africa
(Public Library of Science, 2013-11-15)Young women in age-asymmetric relationships may be at an elevated risk for acquisition of HIV, since relationships with older men are also correlated with other risk behaviors like less condom use. Qualitative studies have ... -
Age differences between sexual partners, behavioural and demographic correlates, and HIV infection on Likoma Island, Malawi
(Springer Nature, 2016)Patterns of age differences between sexual partners – age-mixing – may partially explain the magnitude of HIV epidemics in Sub-Saharan Africa. However, evidence of age-disparity as a risk factor for HIV remains mixed. We ... -
Where do female sex workers seek HIV and reproductive health care and what motivates these choices? a survey in 4 cities in India, Kenya, Mozambique and South Africa
(Public Library of Science, 2016)Background: A baseline cross-sectional survey among female sex workers (FSWs) was conducted in four cities within the context of an implementation research project aiming to improve FSWs’ access to HIV, and sexual and ... -
Beyond risk compensation : clusters of antiretroviral treatment (ART) users in sexual networks can modify the impact of ART on HIV incidence
(Public Library of Science, 2016)Introduction: Concerns about risk compensation—increased risk behaviours in response to a perception of reduced HIV transmission risk—after the initiation of ART have largely been dispelled in empirical studies, but ... -
Impact of age and sex on CD4+ cell count trajectories following treatment initiation : an analysis of the Tanzanian HIV treatment database
(Public Library of Science, 2016)Objective: New guidelines recommend that all HIV-infected individuals initiate antiretroviral treatment (ART) immediately following diagnosis. This study describes how immune reconstitution varies by gender and age to ... -
A comparison of self-report and antiretroviral detection to inform estimates of antiretroviral therapy coverage, viral load suppression and HIV incidence in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa
(BioMed Central, 2017-09-29)Abstract Background Accurately identifying individuals who are on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is important to determine ART coverage and proportion on ART who are virally ... -
Cost-effectiveness of Xpert MTB/RIF and investing in health care in Africa
(Elsevier, 2014-10)The Xpert MTB/RIF assay is an accurate test for the diagnosis of tuberculosis when an adequate sputum sample can be obtained; even in smear-negative tuberculosis the sensitivity is about 67%.1, 2 Although the assay turnaround ... -
Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment : a combined analysis of three mathematical models
(Elsevier, 2014-01)Background WHO's 2013 revisions to its Consolidated Guidelines on antiretroviral drugs recommend routine viral load monitoring, rather than clinical or immunological monitoring, as the preferred monitoring approach on the ... -
Are HIV and reproductive health services adapted to the needs of female sex workers? results of a policy and situational analysis in Tete, Mozambique
(BioMed Central, 2016)Background In the context of an implementation research project aiming at improving use of HIV and sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services for female sex workers (FSWs), a broad situational analysis was conducted ... -
Barriers to HIV and sexual and reproductive health care for female sex workers in Tete, Mozambique : results from a cross-sectional survey and focus group discussions
(BioMed Central, 2016)Background: In the context of an operational research project in Tete, Mozambique, use of, and barriers to, HIV and sexual and reproductive health (HIV/SRH) commodities and services for female sex workers (FSWs) were assessed ...
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