South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA)
The South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) is a national research centre established under the Centre of Excellence programme of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation. The Centre focuses on research in quantitative modelling of the spatial and temporal patterns of disease. The immediate aim of the research is to understand and predict the development of various diseases, and thereby to provide advice on how best to combat them. Our research focuses on issues pertaining to HIV, TB and malaria, although not to the exclusion of other epidemiological problems.
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COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis
(2020)Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, ... -
Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2
(Oxford University Press, 2020)Background: We evaluated if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay local SARS-CoV-2 community transmission in a previously unaffected country. Methods: We simulated infected air travellers arriving into countries ... -
Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa
(2020)For African countries currently reporting COVID-19 cases, we estimate when they will report more than 1 000 and 10 000 cases. Assuming current trends, more than 80% are likely to exceed 1 000 cases by the end of April 2020, ... -
Mesenchymal stem cells used as carrier cells of oncolytic adenovirus results in enhanced oncolytic virotherapy
(Springer Nature, 2020-01-16)Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) loaded with oncolytic viruses are presently being investigated as a new modality of advanced/metastatic tumors treatment and enhancement of virotherapy. MSCs can, however, either promote or ... -
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
(2020)We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be ... -
Impact of a diagonal intervention on uptake of sexual and reproductive health services by female sex workers in Mozambique : a mixed-methods implementation study
(Frontiers Media, 2018)Background: Female sex workers (FSWs) have high risks for adverse sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, yet low access to services. Within an implementation research project enhancing uptake of SRH services by ... -
Birth outcomes following antiretroviral exposure during pregnancy : initial results from a pregnancy exposure registry in South Africa
(AOSIS, 2019)Background: In 2013, a pregnancy exposure registry and birth defects surveillance (PER/BDS) system was initiated in eThekwini District, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), to assess the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on birth ... -
Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic : a review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
(Medpharm Publications, 2018)We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its ... -
How maternal investment varies with environmental factors and the age and physiological state of wild tsetse Glossina pallidipes and Glossina morsitans morsitans
(Royal Society, 2018)Theory suggests females should optimize resource allocation across reproductive bouts to maximize lifetime reproduction, balancing current and future reproductive efforts according to physiological state and projected ... -
Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe’s Zambezi Valley : a mathematical modelling study
(Public Library of Science, 2018)Background: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains ... -
Epidemiological metrics and benchmarks for a transition in the HIV epidemic
(Public Library of Science, 2018)No abstract available -
Interpreting HIV diagnostic histories into infection time estimates : analytical framework and online tool
(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2019-10-26)Background: It is frequently of epidemiological and/or clinical interest to estimate the date of HIV infection or time-since-infection of individuals. Yet, for over 15 years, the only widely-referenced infection dating ... -
High risk exposure to HIV among sexually active individuals who tested negative on rapid HIV Tests in the Tshwane District of South Africa - the importance of behavioural prevention measures
(Public Library of Science, 2018-02-02)Objective: To assess the prevalence of HIV risk behaviour among sexually active HIV sero-negative individuals in the Tshwane district of South Africa (SA). Methods: Demographic and HIV risk behaviour data were collected ... -
High human papillomavirus (HPV) prevalence in South African adolescents and young women encourages expanded HPV vaccination campaigns
(Public Library of Science, 2018-01-02)The objectives of the study were to investigate prevalence of cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) genotypes to inform HPV vaccination strategy in South Africa and to study factors associated with HPV prevalence. Sexually ... -
Population-level HIV incidence estimates using a combination of synthetic cohort and recency biomarker approaches in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
(Public Library of Science, 2018-09-13)Introduction: There is a notable absence of consensus on how to generate estimates of population-level incidence. Incidence is a considerably more sensitive indicator of epidemiological trends than prevalence, but is harder ... -
Computational analysis of antibody dynamics identifies recent HIV-1 infection
(American Society for Clinical Investigation, 2018)Accurate HIV-1 incidence estimation is critical to the success of HIV-1 prevention strategies. Current assays are limited by high false recent rates (FRRs) in certain populations and a short mean duration of recent infection ... -
Developing and implementing national health identifiers in resource limited countries : why, what, who, when and how?
(Taylor & Francis Open, 2018)Many resource-limited countries are scaling up health services and health-information systems (HISs). The HIV Cascade framework aims to link treatment services and programs to improve outcomes and impact. It has been adapted ... -
Complete genome sequence of dengue virus serotype 2, Asian/American genotype, isolated from the urine of a Venezuelan child with hemorrhagic fever in 2016
(American Society for Microbiology, 2018)The complete genome sequence was obtained for a Dengue virus 2 isolate from the urine of an 8-year-old girl who was hospitalized with dengue hemorrhagic fever in 2016 in Venezuela. -
Dynamics and control of infections on social networks of population types
(Elsevier, 2018)Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the ... -
The role of age-mixing patterns in HIV transmission dynamics : Novel hypotheses from a field study in Cape Town, South Africa
(Elsevier, 2018)Background: Age-disparate relationships are thought to put young women at increased risk of HIV, though current evidence is inconclusive. Studying population-level age-mixing patterns as well as individual-level measures ...
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