South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA)
The South African Centre for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis (SACEMA) is a national research centre established under the Centre of Excellence programme of the Department of Science and Technology and the National Research Foundation. The Centre focuses on research in quantitative modelling of the spatial and temporal patterns of disease. The immediate aim of the research is to understand and predict the development of various diseases, and thereby to provide advice on how best to combat them. Our research focuses on issues pertaining to HIV, TB and malaria, although not to the exclusion of other epidemiological problems.
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Serostatus testing and dengue vaccine cost–benefit thresholds
(Royal Society, 2019-08-21)TheWorld Health Organization (WHO) currently recommends pre-screening for past infection prior to administration of the only licensed dengue vaccine, CYD-TDV. Using a threshold modelling analysis, we identify settings ... -
Cumulative viral load as a predictor of CD4+ Tcell response to antiretroviral therapy using Bayesian statistical models
(PLoS, 2019-11-13)Introduction: There are Challenges in statistically modelling immune responses to longitudinal HIV viral load exposure as a function of covariates. We define Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo mixed effects models to ... -
Engaging community health workers in maternal and infant death identification in Khayelitsha, South Africa : a pilot study
(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2020-11-26)Background: Engaging community health workers in a formalised death review process through verbal and social autopsy has been utilised in different settings to estimate the burden and causes of mortality, where ... -
Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana : a population level mathematical modelling approach
(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2020-11-23)Background: This paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the ... -
Extinction probabilities for tsetse (Glossina spp.) in a world of changing climate
(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2020-12)ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Tsetse (Glossina spp) transmit trypanosomiases, as sleeping sickness to humans and nagana to livestock. These continue to have negative impacts on health and wealth in the African continent. In recent ... -
Outbreak response intervention models of vaccine-preventable diseases in humans and foot-and- mouth disease in livestock : a protocol for a systematic review
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2020)Introduction Outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases continue to threaten public health, despite the proven effectiveness of vaccines. Interventions such as vaccination, social distancing and palliative care are ... -
Extinction probabilities as a function of temperature for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp.)
(Public Library of Science, 2020)Significant reductions in populations of tsetse (Glossina spp) in parts of Zimbabwe have been attributed to increases in temperature over recent decades. Sustained increases in temperature might lead to local extinctions ... -
COVID-19 length of hospital stay: a systematic review and data synthesis
(2020)Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has placed an unprecedented strain on health systems, with rapidly increasing demand for healthcare in hospitals and intensive care units (ICUs) worldwide. As the pandemic escalates, ... -
Effectiveness of interventions targeting air travellers for delaying local outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2
(Oxford University Press, 2020)Background: We evaluated if interventions aimed at air travellers can delay local SARS-CoV-2 community transmission in a previously unaffected country. Methods: We simulated infected air travellers arriving into countries ... -
The effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of community-based support for adolescents receiving antiretroviral treatment : an operational research study in South Africa
(Wiley Open Access, 2018)Introduction: Adolescents and youth receiving antiretroviral treatment (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa have high attrition and inadequate ART outcomes, and evaluations of interventions improving ART outcomes amongst adolescents ... -
Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa
(2020)For African countries currently reporting COVID-19 cases, we estimate when they will report more than 1 000 and 10 000 cases. Assuming current trends, more than 80% are likely to exceed 1 000 cases by the end of April 2020, ... -
Mesenchymal stem cells used as carrier cells of oncolytic adenovirus results in enhanced oncolytic virotherapy
(Springer Nature, 2020-01-16)Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) loaded with oncolytic viruses are presently being investigated as a new modality of advanced/metastatic tumors treatment and enhancement of virotherapy. MSCs can, however, either promote or ... -
Inferring the number of COVID-19 cases from recently reported deaths
(2020)We estimate the number of COVID-19 cases from newly reported deaths in a population without previous reports. Our results suggest that by the time a single death occurs, hundreds to thousands of cases are likely to be ... -
Impact of a diagonal intervention on uptake of sexual and reproductive health services by female sex workers in Mozambique : a mixed-methods implementation study
(Frontiers Media, 2018)Background: Female sex workers (FSWs) have high risks for adverse sexual and reproductive health (SRH) outcomes, yet low access to services. Within an implementation research project enhancing uptake of SRH services by ... -
Birth outcomes following antiretroviral exposure during pregnancy : initial results from a pregnancy exposure registry in South Africa
(AOSIS, 2019)Background: In 2013, a pregnancy exposure registry and birth defects surveillance (PER/BDS) system was initiated in eThekwini District, KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), to assess the impact of antiretroviral treatment (ART) on birth ... -
Modelling the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic : a review of the substance and role of models in South Africa
(Medpharm Publications, 2018)We review key mathematical models of the South African human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic from the early 1990s onwards. In our descriptions, we sometimes differentiate between the concepts of a model world and its ... -
How maternal investment varies with environmental factors and the age and physiological state of wild tsetse Glossina pallidipes and Glossina morsitans morsitans
(Royal Society, 2018)Theory suggests females should optimize resource allocation across reproductive bouts to maximize lifetime reproduction, balancing current and future reproductive efforts according to physiological state and projected ... -
Climate change and African trypanosomiasis vector populations in Zimbabwe’s Zambezi Valley : a mathematical modelling study
(Public Library of Science, 2018)Background: Quantifying the effects of climate change on the entomological and epidemiological components of vector-borne diseases is an essential part of climate change research, but evidence for such effects remains ... -
Epidemiological metrics and benchmarks for a transition in the HIV epidemic
(Public Library of Science, 2018)No abstract available -
Interpreting HIV diagnostic histories into infection time estimates : analytical framework and online tool
(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2019-10-26)Background: It is frequently of epidemiological and/or clinical interest to estimate the date of HIV infection or time-since-infection of individuals. Yet, for over 15 years, the only widely-referenced infection dating ...
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