The political risk of terrorism : the value of "new terrorism" as a concept for analysis

Scott, Gregory Richard Jr (2010-12)


Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010.


ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research paper offers an analysis of new terrorism as a concept for analysis in Political Risk. In order to assess the novelty and value of new terrorism it is juxtaposed with old terrorism. This analysis uses a historical comparative method in which three terrorist groups, within two distinct historical periods, are discussed and compared. The first historical period is 1945-2000 and assesses old terrorism through a descriptive assessment of the Muslim Brotherhood and Hezbollah. The second historical period, 2001-2009, provides a descriptive assessment of al-Qaeda. The primary variables for analysis with regards to the terrorist groups selected herein are goals, targets and tactics. Also discussed is the secondary variable structure. A number of key findings indicate that there are more similarities than there are differences between old and new terrorism. The novelty and value of new terrorism is thus limited as a concept for analysis within Political Risk Analysis. The conclusion of this research paper establishes that for a normative conceptualisation of terrorism to exist, and have value, it must consider both old and new terrorism. This normative understanding of terrorism better serves the purpose of mitigation within the sphere of Political Risk Analysis.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie bied .n ontleding van nuwe terrorisme as .n begrip vir ontleding in Politieke Risiko. Ten einde die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme te evalueer, word dit naas ou terrorisme gestel. Hierdie ontleding gebruik .n histories-vergelykende metode waarin drie terroristegroepe, in twee afsonderlike historiese tydperke, bespreek en vergelyk word. Die eerste historiese tydperk strek van 1945.2000 en evalueer ou terrorisme met behulp van .n beskrywende evaluering van die Moslem Broederskap en Hezbollah. Die tweede historiese tydperk, 2001.2009, bied .n beskrywende evaluering van al-Qaeda. Die primere veranderlikes vir ontleding met betrekking tot die terroristegroepe wat hierin aangewys is, is doelstellings, teikens en taktiek. Verder word die sekondere veranderlike struktuur bespreek. .n Aantal belangrike bevindinge dui daarop dat daar meer ooreenkomste as verskille tussen ou en nuwe terrorisme bestaan. Die nuutheid en waarde van nuwe terrorisme het dus beperkinge vir ontleding as .n begrip in Politieke Risiko-ontleding. Die gevolgtrekking van hierdie studie dui dus daarop dat, vir .n normatiewe konseptualisering van terrorisme om te bestaan, en ook waarde te he, dit beide ou en nuwe terrorisme in berekening moet bring. Hierdie normatiewe begrip van terrorisme dien die doel van tempering binne die sfeer van Politieke Risiko-ontleding beter.

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