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High impact, low probability risk and related events in political rsk analysis: an evaluation of the Black Swan

dc.contributor.advisorLambrechts, Dericaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBridger, Nicole Judyen_ZA
dc.contributor.otherStellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science.en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2019-02-19T12:52:36Z
dc.date.accessioned2019-04-17T08:16:51Z
dc.date.available2019-02-19T12:52:36Z
dc.date.available2019-04-17T08:16:51Z
dc.date.issued2019-04
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/105877
dc.descriptionThesis (MA)--Stellenbosch University, 2019.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractENGLISH ABSTRACT: This thesis conducted an evaluation on the Black Swan theory, developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and its applicability in Political Risk Analysis (PRA). The theory is based on three primary characteristics speaking to events which take place that cannot be forecast because; (1) the event has a low occurrence probability due to its unknown unknown status and therefore cannot be identified. As a result (2) the impact of this event is significantly devastating as it changes a country's social, political and economic trajectories. However, although the event could not have been identified in order to approach it before its occurrence, (3) Taleb says that risk analysts and decision makers conduct a Narrative Fallacy after the fact where they identify indicators which would have pointed to its fruition. However, there are several quantitative and qualitative methods in PRA which have been used to approach high impact, low probability risks and related events. The thesis considers how the concept of PRA has developed and expanded to include measures which aid risk analysts in accurately forecasting and approaching events of this nature. The thesis then assesses a variety of qualitative and quantitative approach strategies to show this. This also presented critiques, oppositions and alternatives to Taleb's theory as the applicability of the Black Swan as a classification in PRA was then evaluated. This led to the development of the Novice Approach which was then applied to three examples in Jordan, Britain and America respectively. Here, Actors, Factors, Time (opportunity) and Location were used as the four primary indices to analyse and approach the terrorist attacks which took place at music festivals. In doing so, it was shown that scenarios such as these should be classified as high impact, low probability events in PRA and not as Black Swans. Furthermore, the impact these events may have on a country can be predetermined by the socio-political status and resource availability and capacity, meaning that the relative approach or mitigation strategy can be implemented. The study then concludes by saying that the Black Swan cannot be applied as a classification of events in PRA.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractAFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie tesis het 'n evaluering gedoen van die “Black Swan” teorie, ontwikkel deur Nassim Nicholas Taleb en die toepaslikheid daarvan in Politieke Risiko analise (PRA). Die teorie is gebaseer op drie primêre eienskappe wat handel oor gebeure wat nie voorspel kan word nie, want; (1) die gebeurtenis het 'n lae voorkoms waarskynlikheid as gevolg van sy onbekende status en kan dus nie geïdentifiseer word nie. As gevolg hiervan (2) is die impak van hierdie gebeurtenis aansienlik verwoestend, aangesien dit 'n land se sosiale, politieke en ekonomiese bane verander. Alhoewel die gebeurtenis nie geïdentifiseer kon word om dit voor sy aanval te benader nie, (3) sê Taleb dat risiko-ontleders en besluitnemers 'n “Narratiewe Fallacy” doen na die feit waar hulle aanwysers identifiseer wat na sy produksie verwys het. Daar is egter verskeie kwantitatiewe en kwalitatiewe metodes in PRA wat gebruik word om hoë impak, lae waarskynlikheid risiko’s en verwante gebeurtenisse aan te pak. Die tesis evalueer hoe die konsep PRA ontwikkel en uitgebrei het om maatreëls in te sluit wat risiko-ontleders help om akkurate voorspellings en benaderende gebeure van hierdie aard te bepaal. Dit oorweeg dan 'n verskeidenheid kwalitatiewe en kwantitatiewe benaderings strategieë om dit te toon, waarna dit ook kritiek, opposisie en alternatiewe vir Taleb se teorie aanbied, aangesien die toepaslikheid van die “Black Swan” as 'n klassifikasie in PRA verder geëvalueer is. Verder het dit het gelei tot die ontwikkeling van die Novice Approach, wat dan op drie voorbeelde in Jordanië, Brittanje en Amerika toegepas is. Hier is Akteurs, Faktore, Tyd (geleentheid) en Ligging gebruik as die vier primêre indekse om die terreur aanvalle wat tydens musiekfeeste plaasgevind het, te ontleed en te benader. Daardeur is getoon dat scenario's soos hierdie geklassifiseer moet word as hoë impak, lae waarskynlikheid gebeure in PRA en nie as “Black Swan” nie. Verder kan die impak wat hierdie gebeurtenisse op 'n land het, vooraf bepaal word deur die sosio-politieke status en beskikbaarheid en kapasiteit van hulpbronne, wat beteken dat die relatiewe benadering of versagtings strategie geïmplementeer kan word. Die studie sluit dan af deur te sê dat die “Black Swan” nie as 'n klassifikasie van gebeure in PRA toegepas kan word nie.af_ZA
dc.format.extentx, 114 pages : illustrationsen_ZA
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherStellenbosch : Stellenbosch Universityen_ZA
dc.subjectBlack swan theoryen_ZA
dc.subjectUncertainty (Information theory) -- Social aspectsen_ZA
dc.subjectPolitical stability -- Evaluationen_ZA
dc.subjectPolitical risk -- Evaluationen_ZA
dc.subjectUCTD
dc.titleHigh impact, low probability risk and related events in political rsk analysis: an evaluation of the Black Swanen_ZA
dc.typeThesisen_ZA
dc.rights.holderStellenbosch Universityen_ZA


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