Research Articles (Economics)

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    Suid-Afrika se lang tog na ekonomiese vryheid : 'n persoonlike reis
    (LitNet, 2022) Fourie, Johan, 1982-
    Ekonomiese geskiedkundiges het deesdae die kwantitatiewe middele om “geskiedenisse van onder af” te ontsluit. Ons wil die vraag beantwoord: Wat gee gewone mense die vermoe om beter lewens te bou, en wat weerhou die vryheid om dit te doen van hulle? In hierdie skrywe gebruik ek my familiegeskiedenis om hierdie vraag te beantwoord. Terwyl ek my familie deur die Suid-Afrikaanse geskiedenis volg, gebruik ek ’n verskeidenheid kwantitatiewe bronne: universiteitsrekords, sterftekennisgewings, kiesersrekords, rekords van maatskappye met beperkte aanspreeklikheid, attestasierekords, belastingrekords, boedelinventarisse, om net ’n paar te noem. Hierdie rekords help my om te bewys dat Suid-Afrika goed gedoen het om die eerste les uit die ekonomiese geskiedenis – dat ons wetenskap moet gebruik om ons meer produktief te maak – te leer. Ons het egter eers onlangs van die tweede les – dat die voordele van hierdie produktiwiteit nie net aan ’n elite moet behoort nie – bewus geword. Suid-Afrika se lang tog na ekonomiese vryheid is dus nog ver van klaar af. Ons ambisie gaan egter verder: ons wil nie net die lang pad na ekonomiese vryheid beskryf nie, maar dit uiteindelik ook bevorder. Solank ons die regte lesse uit die verlede leer, lyk die toekoms meer belowend.
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    Non-controlling minority shareholdings and collusion
    (Springer, 2020-05) De Haas, Samuel; Paha, Johannes
    This article merges theoretical literature on non-controlling minority shareholdings (NCMS) in a coherent model to study the effects of NCMS on competition and collusion. The model encompasses both the case of a common owner holding shares of rival firms as well as the case of cross ownership among rivals. We find that by softening competition, NCMS weaken the sustainability of collusion under a greater variety of situations than was indicated by earlier literature. Such effects exist, in particular, in the presence of an effective competition authority.
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    Inflation dynamics : expectations, structural breaks and global factors
    (International Centre for Economic Analysis, 2020-08-04) Siklos, Pierre L.
    There is no consensus over the importance of “global forces” on inflation. This study explores the role of structural breaks in the inflation process, and their timing, whether it is common across countries, and the extent to which ‘global forces’ are relevant. Three conclusions stand out. Global inflation impacts inflation in both AE and EME, but the impact is more heterogeneous than existing narratives have argued. One’s interpretation of global influences on domestic inflation differs, according to whether poorly performing economies in inflation terms are considered as opposed to the standard practice of examining mean inflation performance. A focus on observed inflation alone ignores that inflation expectations, including a global version of this variable, also plays a critical in inflation dynamics. Finally, there are significant spillovers in inflation between AE and EME, but these too are sensitive according to relative inflation performance. Some policy implications are also drawn.
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    Record linkage in the Cape of Good Hope Panel
    (Taylor and Francis Group, 2019-02) Rijpma, Auke; Cilliers, Jeanne; Fourie, Johan
    In this article, we describe the record linkage procedure to create a panel from Cape Colony census returns, or opgaafrolle, for 1787–1828, a dataset of 42,354 household-level observations. Based on a subset of manually linked records, we first evaluate statistical models and deterministic algorithms to best identify and match households over time. By using household-level characteristics in the linking process and near-annual data, we are able to create high-quality links for 84% of the dataset. We compare basic analyses on the linked panel dataset to the original cross-sectional data, evaluate the feasibility of the strategy when linking to supplementary sources, and discuss the scalability of our approach to the full Cape panel.
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    Osamu Saito’s pioneering research into the long-term changes in occupational structure of Japan has inspired scholars to take a fresh look at structural change in other countries. This article offers a case study of Indonesia. We find a rather slow pace of structural transformation until the 1970s – the immediate post-war period even saw a reversal of trends. After 1970, during a growth spurt, employment growth in manufacturing was not impressive, and services were an even more important source of employment. The role played by by-employment is also analysed, demonstrating that in 1905 the economy was quite diversified.