SUNScholar - Browsing by Author "Essl, Franz"

Browsing by Author "Essl, Franz"

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Around the world in 500 years: Inter-regional spread of alien species over recent centuries
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2021) Seebens, Hanno; Blackburn, Tim M.; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Orlova-Bienkowskaja, Marina; Pyšek, Petr; Schindler, Stefan; Essl, Franz
Aim: The number of alien species has been increasing for centuries world-wide, but temporal changes in the dynamics of their inter-regional spread remain unclear. Here, we analyse changes in the rate and extent of inter-regional spread of alien species over time and how these dynamics vary among major taxonomic groups. Location: Global. Time period: 1500–2010. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants, mammals, birds, fishes, arthropods and other invertebrates. Methods: Our analysis is based on the Alien Species First Record Database, which comprises >60,000 entries describing the year when an alien species was first recorded in a region (mostly countries and large islands) where it later established as an alien species. Based on the number and distribution of first records, we calculated metrics of spread between regions, which we termed “inter-regional spread”, and conducted statistical analyses to assess variations over time and across taxonomic groups. Results: Almost all (>90%) species introduced before 1700 are found in more than one region today. Inter-regional spread often took centuries and is ongoing for many species. The intensity of inter-regional spread increased over time, with particularly steep increases after 1800. Rates of spread peaked for plants in the late 19th century, for birds and invertebrates in the late 20th century, and remained largely constant for mammals and fishes. Inter-regional spread for individual species showed hump-shaped temporal patterns, with the highest rates of spread at intermediate alien range sizes. Approximately 50% of widespread species showed signs of declines in spread rates. Main conclusions: Our results show that, although rates of spread have declined for many widespread species, for entire taxonomic groups they have tended to increase continuously over time. The large numbers of alien species that are currently observed in only a single region are anticipated to be found in many other regions in the future.
Biodiversity assessments : origin matters
(Public Library of Science, 2018-11-13) Pauchard, Anibal; Meyerson, Laura A.; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Brundu, Giuseppe; Cadotte, Marc W.; Courchamp, Franck; Essl, Franz; Genovesi, Piero; Haider, Sylvia; Holmes, Nick D.; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Lockwood, Julie L.; Novoa, Ana; Nunez, Martin A.; Peltzer, Duane A.; Pysek, Petr; Richardson, David M.; Simberloff, Daniel; Smith, Kevin; Van Wilgen, Brian W.; Vila, Montserrat; Wilson, John R. U.; Winter, Marten; Zenni, Rafael D.
Recent global efforts in biodiversity accounting, such as those undertaken through the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) and Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), are vital if we are to track conservation progress, ensure that we can address the challenges of global change, and develop powerful and scientifically sound indicators. Schlaepfer [1] proposes that we should work toward inventories of biodiversity that account for native and non-native species regardless of species origin and ecological context. We strongly disagree with the approach of combining counts of native and non-native species because this will reduce our capacity to detect the effects of non-native species on native biodiversity with potentially devastating consequences. Compelling and abundant evidence demonstrates that some non-native species can become invasive and produce major ecosystem disruptions and even native species extinction. Unfortunately, we still cannot be certain which non-native species will be the most detrimental (e.g., [2]). Combining native and non-native species together into a single biodiversity index would not only inflate biodiversity estimates and risk promoting the spread of invasive non-native species but would also ignore the fundamental ecological differences between the two groups.
A conceptual map of invasion biology : integrating hypotheses into a consensus network
(Wiley, 2020-03-25) Enders, Martin; Havemann, Frank; Ruland, Florian; Bernard-Verdier, Maud; Catford, Jane A.; Gomez-Aparicio, Lorena; Haider, Sylvia; Heger, Tina; Kueffer, Christoph; Kuh, Ingolf; Meyerson, Laura A.; Musseau, Camille; Novoa, Ana; Ricciardi, Anthony; Sagouis, Alban; Schittko, Conrad; Strayer, David L.; Vilà, Montserrat; Essl, Franz; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Kumschick, Sabrina; Lockwood, Julie L.; Mabey, Abigail L.; McGeoch, Melodie A.; Estibaliz, Palma; Pysek, Petr; Saul, Wolf-Christian; Yannelli, Florencia A.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.
Background and aims: Since its emergence in the mid-20th century, invasion biology has matured into a productive research field addressing questions of fundamental and applied importance. Not only has the number of empirical studies increased through time, but also has the number of competing, overlapping and, in some cases, contradictory hypotheses about biological invasions. To make these contradictions and redundancies explicit, and to gain insight into the field’s current theoretical structure, we developed and applied a Delphi approach to create a consensus network of 39 existing invasion hypotheses. Results: The resulting network was analysed with a link-clustering algorithm that revealed five concept clusters (resource availability, biotic interaction, propagule, trait and Darwin’s clusters) representing complementary areas in the theory of invasion biology. The network also displays hypotheses that link two or more clusters, called connecting hypotheses, which are important in determining network structure. The network indicates hypotheses that are logically linked either positively (77 connections of support) or negatively (that is, they contradict each other; 6 connections). Significance: The network visually synthesizes how invasion biology’s predominant hypotheses are conceptually related to each other, and thus, reveals an emergent structure – a conceptual map – that can serve as a navigation tool for scholars, practitioners and students, both inside and outside of the field of invasion biology, and guide the development of a more coherent foundation of theory. Additionally, the outlined approach can be more widely applied to create a conceptual map for the larger fields of ecology and biogeography.
The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD)’s Post-2020 target on invasive alien species – what should it include and how should it be monitored?
(2020-10-15) Essl, Franz; Latombe, Guillaume; Lenzner, Bernd; Pagad, Shyama; Seebens, Hanno; Smith, Kevin; Wilson, John R. U.; Genovesi, Piero
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The year 2020 and the next few years are critical for the development of the global biodiversity policy agenda until the mid-21st century, with countries agreeing to a Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD). Reducing the substantial and still rising impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) on biodiversity will be essential if we are to meet the 2050 Vision where biodiversity is valued, conserved, and restored. A tentative target has been developed by the IUCN Invasive Species Specialist Group (ISSG), and formally submitted to the CBD for consideration in the discussion on the Post-2020 targets. Here, we present properties of this proposal that we regard as essential for an effective Post-2020 Framework. The target should explicitly consider the three main components of biological invasions, i.e. (i) pathways, (ii) species, and (iii) sites; the target should also be (iv) quantitative, (v) supplemented by a set of indicators that can be applied to track progress, and (vi) evaluated at medium- (2030) and long-term (2050) time horizons. We also present a proposed set of indicators to track progress. These properties and indicators are based on the increasing scientific understanding of biological invasions and effectiveness of responses. Achieving an ambitious action-oriented target so that the 2050 Vision can be achieved will require substantial effort and resources, and the cooperation of a wide range of stakeholders.
Data descriptor : Pacific introduced flora (PaciFLora)
(Pensoft, 2021-07-20) Wohlwend, Michael Rudolf; Craven, Dylan; Weigelt, Patrick; Seebens, Hanno; Winter, Marten; Kreft, Holger; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Van Kleunen, Marl; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Space, James; Thomas, Philip; Knight, Tiffany
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Pacific region has the highest density of naturalized plant species worldwide, which makes it an important area for research on the ecology, evolution and biogeography of biological invasions. While different data sources on naturalized plant species exist for the Pacific, there is no taxonomically and spatially harmonized database available for different subsets of species and islands. A comprehensive, accessible database containing the distribution of naturalized vascular plant species in the Pacific will enable new basic and applied research for researchers and will be an important information source for practitioners working in the region.Here, we present PacIFlora, an updated and taxonomically standardized list of naturalized species, their unified nativeness, cultivation and invasiveness status, and their distribution across the Pacific Ocean, including harmonized location denommination. This list is based on the two largest databases on naturalized plants for the region, specifically the Pacific Island Ecosystems at Risk (PIER) and the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) databases. We provide an outlook for how this database can contribute to numerous research questions and conservation efforts.
Defining the impact of non-native species
(Wiley, 2014) Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Essl, Franz; Evans, Thomas; Gaertner, Mirijam; Hulme, Philip E.; Kühn, Ingolf; Mrugala, Agata; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Ricciardi, Anthony; Richardson, David M.; Sendek, Agnieszka; Vila, Montserrat; Winter, Marten; Kumschick, Sabrina
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Non-native species cause changes in the ecosystems to which they are introduced. These changes, or some of them, are usually termed impacts; they can be manifold and potentially damaging to ecosystems and biodiversity. However, the impacts of most non-native species are poorly understood, and a synthesis of available information is being hindered because authors often do not clearly define impact. We argue that explicitly defining the impact of non-native species will promote progress toward a better understanding of the implications of changes to biodiversity and ecosystems caused by non-native species; help disentangle which aspects of scientific debates about non-native species are due to disparate definitions and which represent true scientific discord; and improve communication between scientists from different research disciplines and between scientists, managers, and policy makers. For these reasons and based on examples from the literature, we devised seven key questions that fall into 4 categories: directionality, classification and measurement, ecological or socio-economic changes, and scale. These questions should help in formulating clear and practical definitions of impact to suit specific scientific, stakeholder, or legislative contexts.
Drivers of future alien species impacts: an expert-based assessment
(Wiley, 2020) Essl, Franz; Lenzner, Bernd; Bacher, Sven; Bailey, Sarah; Hui, Cang; Kuhn, Ingolf; Pysek, Petr; Richardson, David M.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Understanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%–30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions—transport, climate change and socio-economic change—were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
The effect of cross-boundary management on the trajectory to commonness in biological invasions
(Pensoft, 2020-10-15) Latombe, Guillaume; Essl, Franz; McGeoch, Melodie A.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The number of alien species introduced and undergoing range expansion in novel environments is steadily increasing, with important consequences for native ecosystems. The efficacy of management planning and decision making to limit such invasions can be improved by understanding how interventions will impact the population dynamics of recently introduced species. To do so, here we expand on a typological framework that enables the classification of populations over time into 10 categories of commonness, and apply it to a spatially discrete metapopulation with heterogeneous abundance across spatial units (patches). We use this framework to assess the effect of cross-boundary management on the capacity of a metapopulation with different demographic and dispersal characteristics, including time lags in population growth, to become common. We demonstrate this framework by simulating a simple theoretical metapopulation model capable of exploring a range of environments, species characteristics, and management actions. Management can vary in the efficacy of propagule interception between patches, and in the synchronisation of the implementation of these measures across patches (i.e. if management is implemented simultaneously across patches). Simulations show that poor interception efficacy that only modestly reduces the number of propagules entering a given spatial unit cannot be compensated for by strong management synchronisation between spatial units. Management synchronisation will nonetheless result in a reduction in rates of spread once a critical threshold of interception efficacy has been met. Finally, time lags in population growth that may result in delayed spread are an important aspect to be considered in management as they can amplify the efficacy of management. Our results demonstrate how a typological framework of categories of commonness can be used to provide practical insights for the management of biological invasions.
Framework and guidelines for implementing the proposed IUCN Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT)
(Wiley, 2015) Hawkins, Charlotte L.; Bacher, Sven; Essl, Franz; Hulme, Philip E.; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kuhn, Ingolf; Kumschick, Sabrina; Nentwig, Wolfgang; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Richardson, David M.; Vila, Montserrat; Wilson, John R. U.; Genovesi, Piero; Blackburn, Tim M.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Recently, Blackburn et al. (2014) developed a simple, objective and transparent method for classifying alien taxa in terms of the magnitude of their detrimental environmental impacts in recipient areas. Here, we present a comprehensive framework and guidelines for implementing this method, which we term the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa, or EICAT. We detail criteria for applying the EICAT scheme in a consistent and comparable fashion, prescribe the supporting information that should be supplied along with classifications, and describe the process for implementing the method. This comment aims to draw the attention of interested parties to the framework and guidelines, and to present them in their entirety in a location where they are freely accessible to any potential users.
Global actions for managing cactus invasions
(MDPI, 2019-10-16) Novoa, Ana; Brundu, Giuseppe; Day, Michael D.; Deltoro, Vicente; Essl, Franz; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Fried, Guillaume; Kaplan, Haylee; Kumschick, Sabrina; Lloyd, Sandy; Marchante, Elizabete; Marchante, Helia; Paterson, Iain D.; Pysek, Petr; Richardson, David M.; Witt, Arne; Zimmermann, Helmuth G.; Wilson, John R. U.
The family Cactaceae Juss. contains some of the most widespread and damaging invasive alien plant species in the world, with Australia (39 species), South Africa (35) and Spain (24) being the main hotspots of invasion. The Global Cactus Working Group (IOBC GCWG) was launched in 2015 to improve international collaboration and identify key actions that can be taken to limit the impacts caused by cactus invasions worldwide. Based on the results of an on-line survey, information collated from a review of the scientific and grey literature, expertise of the authors, and because invasiveness appears to vary predictably across the family, we (the IOBC GCWG): (1) recommend that invasive and potentially invasive cacti are regulated, and to assist with this, propose five risk categories; (2) recommend that cactus invasions are treated physically or chemically before they become widespread; (3) advocate the use of biological control to manage widespread invasive species; and (4) encourage the development of public awareness and engagement initiatives to integrate all available knowledge and perspectives in the development and implementation of management actions, and address conflicts of interest, especially with the agricultural and ornamental sectors. Implementing these recommendations will require global co-operation. The IOBC GCWG aims to assist with this process through the dissemination of information and experience.
Global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees to prevent tree invasions and mitigate their negative impacts
(Pensoft, 2020-10-08) Brundu, Giuseppe; Pauchard, Anibal; Pysek, Petr; Pergl, Jan; Essl, Franz; Wilson, John R. U.; Richardson, David M.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Sustainably managed non-native trees deliver economic and societal benefits with limited risk of spread to adjoining areas. However, some plantations have launched invasions that cause substantial damage to biodiversity and ecosystem services, while others pose substantial threats of causing such impacts. The challenge is to maximise the benefits of non-native trees, while minimising negative impacts and preserving future benefits and options. A workshop was held in 2019 to develop global guidelines for the sustainable use of non-native trees, using the Council of Europe – Bern Convention Code of Conduct on Invasive Alien Trees as a starting point. The global guidelines consist of eight recommendations: 1) Use native trees, or non-invasive non-native trees, in preference to invasive non-native trees; 2) Be aware of and comply with international, national, and regional regulations concerning non-native trees; 3) Be aware of the risk of invasion and consider global change trends; 4) Design and adopt tailored practices for plantation site selection and silvicultural management; 5) Promote and implement early detection and rapid response programmes; 6) Design and adopt tailored practices for invasive non-native tree control, habitat restoration, and for dealing with highly modified ecosystems; 7) Engage with stakeholders on the risks posed by invasive non-native trees, the impacts caused, and the options for management; and 8) Develop and support global networks, collaborative research, and information sharing on native and non-native trees. The global guidelines are a first step towards building global consensus on the precautions that should be taken when introducing and planting non-native trees. They are voluntary and are intended to complement statutory requirements under international and national legislation. The application of the global guidelines and the achievement of their goals will help to conserve forest biodiversity, ensure sustainable forestry, and contribute to the achievement of several Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations linked with forest biodiversity.
An integrated, spatio-temporal modelling framework for analysing biological invasions
(Wiley, 2018) Mang, Thomas; Essl, Franz; Moser, Dietmar; Kleinbauer, Ingrid; Dullinger, Stefan; Lahoz-Monfort, Jose J.
Aim: We develop a novel modelling framework for analysing the spatio-temporal spread of biological invasions. The framework integrates different invasion drivers and disentangles their roles in determining observed invasion patterns by fitting models to historical distribution data. As a case study application, we analyse the spread of common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia). Location: Central Europe. Methods: A lattice system represents actual landscapes with environmental heterogeneity. Modelling covers the spatio-temporal invasion sequence in this grid and integrates the effects of environmental conditions on local invasion suitability, the role of invaded cells and spatially implicit “background” introductions as propagule sources, within-cell invasion level bulk-up and multiple dispersal means. A modular framework design facilitates flexible numerical representation of the modelled invasion processes and customization of the model complexity. We used the framework to build and contrast increasingly complex models, and fitted them using a Bayesian inference approach with parameters estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Results: All modelled invasion drivers codetermined the A. artemisiifolia invasion pattern. Inferences about individual drivers depended on which processes were modelled concurrently, and hence changed both quantitatively and qualitatively between models. Among others, the roles of environmental variables were assessed substantially differently subject to whether models included explicit source-recipient cell relationships, spatio-temporal variability in source cell strength and human-mediated dispersal means. The largest fit improvements were found by integrating filtering effects of the environment and spatio-temporal availability of propagule sources. Main conclusions: Our modelling framework provides a straightforward means to build integrated invasion models and address hypotheses about the roles and mutual relationships of different putative invasion drivers. Its statistical nature and generic design make it suitable for studying many observed invasions. For efficient invasion modelling, it is important to represent changes in spatio-temporal propagule supply by explicitly tracking the species’ colonization sequence and establishment of new populations.
Invasion costs, impacts, and human agency : response to Sagoff 2020
(Wiley, 2020) Cuthbert, Ross N.; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Briski, Elizabeta; Diagne, Christophe; Dick, Jaimie T. A.; Essl, Franz; Genovesi, Piero; Haubrock, Phillip J.; Latombe, Guillaume; Lenzner, Bernd; Meinard, Yves; Pauchard, Anibal; Pysek, Petr; Ricciardi, Anthony; Richardson, David M.; Russell, James C.; Simberloff, Daniel; Courchamp, Franck
Article impact statement: In an era of profound biodiversity crisis, invasion costs, invader impacts, and human agency should not be dismissed.
Naturalization of European plants on other continents : the role of donor habitats
(National Academy of Sciences, 2019) Kalusova, Veronika; Chytry, Milan; Van Kleunen, Mark; Mucina, Ladislav; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Kreft, Holger; Pergl, Jan; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Pysek, Petr
The success of European plant species as aliens worldwide is thought to reflect their association with human-disturbed environments. However, an explicit test including all human-made, seminatural and natural habitat types of Europe, and their contributions as donor habitats of naturalized species to the rest of the globe, has been missing. Here we combine two databases, the European Vegetation Checklist and the Global Naturalized Alien Flora, to assess how human influence in European habitats affects the probability of naturalization of their plant species on other continents. A total of 9,875 native European vascular plant species were assigned to 39 European habitat types; of these, 2,550 species have become naturalized somewhere in the world. Species that occur in both human-made habitats and seminatural or natural habitats in Europe have the highest probability of naturalization (64.7% and 64.5% of them have naturalized). Species associated only with human-made or seminatural habitats still have a significantly higher probability of becoming naturalized (41.7% and 28.6%, respectively) than species confined to natural habitats (19.4%). Species associated with arable land and human settlements were recorded as naturalized in the largest number of regions worldwide. Our findings highlight that plant species’ association with native-range habitats disturbed by human activities, combined with broad habitat range, play an important role in shaping global patterns of plant invasions.
Open minded and open access : introducing NeoBiota, a new peer-reviewed journal of biological invasions
(Pensoft, 2011) Kuhn, Ingolf; Kowarik, Ingo; Kollmann, Johannes; Starfinger, Uwe; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Bustamante, Ramiro O.; Celesti-Grapow, Laura; Chytry, Milan; Colautti, Robert I.; Essl, Franz; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Garcia-Berthou, Emili; Gollasch, Stephan; Hierro, Jose; Hufbauer, Ruth A.; Hulme, Philip E.; Jarosik, Vojtech; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Karrer, Gerhard; Mack, Richard N.; Molofsky, Jane; Murray, Brad R.; Nentwig, Wolfgang; Osborne, Bruce; Pysek, Petr; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Rejmanek, Marcel; Roques, Alain; Shaw, Richard; Sol, Daniel; Van Kleunen, Mark; Vila, Montserrat; Von der Lippe, Moritz; Wolfe, Lorne M.; Penev, Lyubomir
The Editorial presents the focus, scope, policies, and the inaugural issue of NeoBiota, a new open access peer-reviewed journal of biological invasions. The new journal NeoBiota is a continuation of the former NEOBIOTA publication series. The journal will deal with all aspects of invasion biology and impose no restrictions on manuscript size neither on use of color. NeoBiota implies an XML-based editorial workflow and several cutting-edge innovations in publishing and dissemination, such as semantic markup of and enhancements to published texts, data publication, and extensive cross-linking within the journal and to external sources.
Phylogenetic structure of alien plant species pools from European donor habitats
(John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2021) Kalusova, Veronika; Cubino, Josep Padulles; Fristoe, Trevor S.; Chytry, Milan; Van Kleunen, Mark; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Kreft, Holger; Mucina, Ladislav; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Lososova, Zdenka
Aim: Many plant species native to Europe have naturalized worldwide. We tested whether the phylogenetic structure of the species pools of European habitats is related to the proportion of species from each habitat that has naturalized outside Europe (habitat’s donor role) and whether the donated species are more phylogenetically related to each other than expected by chance. Location: Europe (native range), the rest of the world (invaded range). Time period: Last c. 100 years. Major taxa studied: Angiospermae. Methods: We selected 33 habitats in Europe and analysed their species pools, including 9,636 plant species, of which 2,293 have naturalized outside Europe. We assessed the phylogenetic structure of each habitat as the difference between the observed and expected mean pairwise phylogenetic distance (MPD) for (a) the whole species pool and (b) subgroups of species that have naturalized outside Europe and those that have not. We used generalized linear models to test for the effects of the phylogenetic structure and the level of human influence on the habitat’s donor role.
Projecting the continental accumulation of alien species through to 2050
(John Wiley & Sons, 2020) Seebens, Hanno; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Capinha, Cesar; Dawson, Wayne; Dullinger, Stefan; Genovesi, Piero; Hulme, Philip E.; Van Kleunen, Mark; Kuhn, Ingolf; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Lenzner, Bernd; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Pattison, Zarah; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Winter, Marten; Essl, Franz
Biological invasions have steadily increased over recent centuries. However, we still lack a clear expectation about future trends in alien species numbers. In particular, we do not know whether alien species will continue to accumulate in regional floras and faunas, or whether the pace of accumulation will decrease due to the depletion of native source pools. Here, we apply a new model to simulate future numbers of alien species based on estimated sizes of source pools and dynamics of historical invasions, assuming a continuation of processes in the future as observed in the past (a business‐as‐usual scenario). We first validated performance of different model versions by conducting a back‐casting approach, therefore fitting the model to alien species numbers until 1950 and validating predictions on trends from 1950 to 2005. In a second step, we selected the best performing model that provided the most robust predictions to project trajectories of alien species numbers until 2050. Altogether, this resulted in 3,790 stochastic simulation runs for 38 taxon–continent combinations. We provide the first quantitative projections of future trajectories of alien species numbers for seven major taxonomic groups in eight continents, accounting for variation in sampling intensity and uncertainty in projections. Overall, established alien species numbers per continent were predicted to increase from 2005 to 2050 by 36%. Particularly, strong increases were projected for Europe in absolute (+2,543 ± 237 alien species) and relative terms, followed by Temperate Asia (+1,597 ± 197), Northern America (1,484 ± 74) and Southern America (1,391 ± 258). Among individual taxonomic groups, especially strong increases were projected for invertebrates globally. Declining (but still positive) rates were projected only for Australasia. Our projections provide a first baseline for the assessment of future developments of biological invasions, which will help to inform policies to contain the spread of alien species.
Role of diversification rates and evolutionary history as a driver of plant naturalization success
(Wiley, 2020) Lenzner, Bernd; Magallon, Susana; Dawson, Wayne; Kreft, Holger; Konig, Christian; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Weigelt, Patrick; Van Kleunen, Mark; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Human introductions of species beyond their natural ranges and their subsequent establishment are defining features of global environmental change. However, naturalized plants are not uniformly distributed across phylogenetic lineages, with some families contributing disproportionately more to the global alien species pool than others. Additionally, lineages differ in diversification rates, and high diversification rates have been associated with characteristics that increase species naturalization success. Here, we investigate the role of diversification rates in explaining the naturalization success of angiosperm plant families. We use five global data sets that include native and alien plant species distribution, horticultural use of plants, and a time-calibrated angiosperm phylogeny. Using phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models, we analysed the effect of diversification rate, different geographical range measures, and horticultural use on the naturalization success of plant families. We show that a family's naturalization success is positively associated with its evolutionary history, native range size, and economic use. Investigating interactive effects of these predictors shows that native range size and geographic distribution additionally affect naturalization success. High diversification rates and large ranges increase naturalization success, especially of temperate families. We suggest this may result from lower ecological specialization in temperate families with large ranges, compared with tropical families with smaller ranges.
Scientists’ warning on invasive alien species
(Wiley, 2019) Pysek, Petr; Hulme, Philip E.; Simberloff, Dan; Bacher, Sven; Blackburn, Tim M.; Carlton, James T.; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Foxcroft, Llewellyn C.; Genovesi, Piero; Jeschke, Jonathan M.; Kühn, Ingolf; Liebhold, Andrew M.; Mandrak, Nicholas E.; Meyerson, Laura A.; Pauchard, Aníbal; Pergl, Jan; Roy, Helen E.; Seebens, Hanno; Van Kleunen, Mark; Vila, Montserrat; Wingfield, Michael J.; Richardson, David M.
Biological invasions are a global consequence of an increasingly connected world and the rise in human population size. The numbers of invasive alien species – the subset of alien species that spread widely in areas where they are not native, affecting the environment or human livelihoods – are increasing. Synergies with other global changes are exacerbating current invasions and facilitating new ones, thereby escalating the extent and impacts of invaders. Invasions have complex and often immense long-term direct and indirect impacts. In many cases, such impacts become apparent or problematic only when invaders are well established and have large ranges. Invasive alien species break down biogeographic realms, affect native species richness and abundance, increase the risk of native species extinction, affect the genetic composition of native populations, change native animal behaviour, alter phylogenetic diversity across communities, and modify trophic networks. Many invasive alien species also change ecosystem functioning and the delivery of ecosystem services by altering nutrient and contaminant cycling, hydrology, habitat structure, and disturbance regimes. These biodiversity and ecosystem impacts are accelerating and will increase further in the future. Scientific evidence has identified policy strategies to reduce future invasions, but these strategies are often insufficiently implemented. For some nations, notably Australia and New Zealand, biosecurity has become a national priority. There have been long-term successes, such as eradication of rats and cats on increasingly large islands and biological control of weeds across continental areas. However, in many countries, invasions receive little attention. Improved international cooperation is crucial to reduce the impacts of invasive alien species on biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human livelihoods. Countries can strengthen their biosecurity regulations to implement and enforce more effective management strategies that should also address other global changes that interact with invasions.
Source pools and disharmony of the world's island floras
(Nordic Society Oikos, 2020) Konig, Christian; Weigelt, Patrick; Taylor, Amanda; Stein, Anke; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Pergl, Jan; Pysek, Petr; Van Kleunen, Mark; Winter, Marten; Chatelain, Cyrille; Wieringa, Jan J.; Krestov, Pavel; Kreft, Holger
Island disharmony refers to the biased representation of higher taxa on islands compared to their mainland source regions and represents a central concept in island biology. Here, we develop a generalizable framework for approximating these source regions and conduct the first global assessment of island disharmony and its underlying drivers. We compiled vascular plant species lists for 178 oceanic islands and 735 mainland regions. Using mainland data only, we modelled species turnover as a function of environmental and geographic distance and predicted the proportion of shared species between each island and mainland region. We then quantified the over- or under-representation of families on individual islands (representational disharmony) by contrasting the observed number of species against a null model of random colonization from the mainland source pool, and analysed the effects of six family-level functional traits on the resulting measure. Furthermore, we aggregated the values of representational disharmony per island to characterize overall taxonomic bias of a given flora (compositional disharmony), and analysed this second measure as a function of four island biogeographical variables. Our results indicate considerable variation in representational disharmony both within and among plant families. Examples of generally over-represented families include Urticaceae, Convolvulaceae and almost all pteridophyte families. Other families such as Asteraceae and Orchidaceae were generally under-represented, with local peaks of over-representation in known radiation hotspots. Abiotic pollination and a lack of dispersal specialization were most strongly associated with an insular over-representation of families, whereas other family-level traits showed minor effects. With respect to compositional disharmony, large, high-elevation islands tended to have the most disharmonic floras. Our results provide important insights into the taxon- and island-specific drivers of disharmony. The proposed framework allows overcoming the limitations of previous approaches and provides a quantitative basis for incorporating functional and phylogenetic approaches into future studies of island disharmony.

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