A continental-scale validation of ecosystem service models

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dc.contributor.authorWillcock, Simonen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHooftman, Danny A. P.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBalbi, Stefanoen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBlanchard, Ryanen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDawson, Terence P.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorO’Farrell, Patrick J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHickler, Thomasen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHudson, Malcolm D.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorLindeskog, Matsen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMartinez-Lopez, Javieren_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMulligan, Marken_ZA
dc.contributor.authorReyers, Belindaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorShackleton, Charlieen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSitas, Nadiaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVilla, Ferdinandoen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorWatts, Sophie M.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorEigenbrod, Felixen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBullock, James M.en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-07T13:09:59Z
dc.date.available2021-09-07T13:09:59Z
dc.date.issued2019-04-22
dc.descriptionCITATION: Willcock, S., et al. 2019. A continental-scale validation of ecosystem service models. Ecosystems, 22:1902–1917. doi:10.1007/s10021-019-00380-y
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://www.springer.com/journal/10021
dc.description.abstractFaced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.en_ZA
dc.description.urihttps://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10021-019-00380-y
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent16 pages : illustrations (some color), mapsen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationWillcock, S., et al. 2019. A continental-scale validation of ecosystem service models. Ecosystems, 22:1902–1917. doi:10.1007/s10021-019-00380-y
dc.identifier.issn1435-0629 (online)
dc.identifier.issn1432-9840 (print)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1007/s10021-019-00380-y
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/122999
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain rights
dc.subjectEcosystem services -- Africa --Sub-Saharanen_ZA
dc.subjectBeneficiaryen_ZA
dc.subjectCarbonen_ZA
dc.subjectCharcoalen_ZA
dc.subjectComplexityen_ZA
dc.subjectFirewooden_ZA
dc.subjectGrazingen_ZA
dc.subjectEcosystem services -- Economic aspects -- Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectWateren_ZA
dc.subjectEcosystem services -- Law and legislation -- Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectEcosystem services -- Models -- Analysisen_ZA
dc.subjectEnvironmental degradation -- Africa --Sub-Saharanen_ZA
dc.subjectHuman beings -- Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Influence on natureen_ZA
dc.titleA continental-scale validation of ecosystem service modelsen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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