Essays on fiscal policy in South Africa
| dc.contributor.advisor | Du Plessis, Stan, 1972- | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Siebrits, F. K. (F. Krige) | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Liu, Guangling | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.author | Kemp, Johannes Hermanus | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.other | Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Economics. | en_ZA |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-01-27T08:38:56Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2020-04-28T12:02:51Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-01-27T08:38:56Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2020-04-28T12:02:51Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2020-03 | |
| dc.description | Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2020. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | ENGLISH ABSTRACT : This study is primarily motivated by the renewed interest in the effects of fiscal policy on general macroeconomic outcomes and macroeconomic stability since the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis. In the wake of the crisis, it became apparent that both the standard and unconventional monetary policy toolkits were insufficient to stimulate global demand to the degree required. As such, there was renewed debate on the role of discretionary fiscal policy in stabilising the global economy. In light of the resurgence in interest on the effects of fiscal policy on broader macroeconomic outcomes, as well as the relative dearth of research on the topic in South Africa, this study investigates several aspects of the economy-wide transmission of fiscal policy decisions within the South African context. Chapter 2 provides microeconomic evidence of the behavioural responses of individual taxpayers to changing tax rates. The magnitude of this behavioural response is central to the formulation of tax and transfer policies. Using a new dataset comprising confidential tax return data, the elasticity of taxable income (ETI) is estimated. The estimate lies close to the mid-point of estimates found in the literature. Furthermore, it is shown that behavioural responses to changing tax rates are concentrated in higher-income groups. Finally, through embedding the ETI estimate in an optimal tax framework it is shown that there is little scope for raising marginal rates. Chapter 3 broadens the scope and investigates the transmission of unanticipated fiscal policy innovations to broader macroeconomic aggregates, including GDP and private consumption. A key aim of the chapter is to estimate fiscal multipliers. Using a variety of identification approaches and model specifications, it is found that, while the size of budgetary multipliers is sensitive to the identification strategy and modelling approach used, government spending multipliers are positive and smaller than one. Tax multipliers are found to be large and distortionary. Chapter 3 estimates fiscal multipliers based on empirical reduced-form models. A different approach to the identification of fiscal shocks and their transmission to macroeconomic outcomes is through estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. To that end, Chapter 4 specifies and estimates an open-economy fiscal DSGE model for the South African economy. While fiscal multipliers are generally in line with estimates from Chapter 3, the size of budgetary multipliers depends crucially on the specific policy rule that is used to stabilise debt, i.e. the functional form of the fiscal rules. The specific features embedded in the model, including the specification of nominal rigidities and consumer behaviour, also play a vital role in determining the size of the fiscal multipliers. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Na afloop van die 2008/09 Internasionale Finansiële Krisis was daar hernude belangstelling in die impak van fiskale beleid op makro-ekonomiese uitkomste, asook die impak van hierdie beleidsbesluite op makro-ekonomiese stabiliteit. In die afloop van die krisis het dit vinnig duidelik geraak dat beide tradisionele én buitengewone monetêre beleidsmaatreëls nie voldoende was om globale groei genoegsaam aan te wakker nie. Dus het die aandag verskuif na fiskale beleid en het daar hewige debat onstaan oor die vermoeë, al dan nie, van diskresionêre fiskale beleid om die wêreldekonomie te stabiliseer en globale groei ’n hupstoot te gee. Aan die hand van die hernude belangstelling in fiskale beleid na afloop van die krisis, en die algemene gebrek aan navorsing in hierdie veld in Suid-Afrika, bekyk hierdie studie verskeie aspekte van die transmissie van fiskale beleid na makro-ekonomiese uitkomste binne die Suid- Afrikaanse konteks. Hoostuk 2 verskaf mikro-ekonomiese insigte oor veranderinge in individuele gedragspatrone na ’n aanpassing in die marginale belastingkoers. Kennis van hierdie veranderende gedragspatrone speel ’n belangrike rol in die formulering van beleid rondom belasting en maatskaplike (of ander) toelae. Een maatstaf wat hierdie gedragsverandering kwantifiseer is die sogenaamde elastisiteit van belasbare inkomste (EBI). Die EBI vir Suid-Afrika word beraam met behulp van ’n nuwe datastel bestaande uit individuele belastingopgawes. In die algemeen, wys die resultate dat die waarde van die EBI vir Suid-Afrika naby aan die middelpunt van die beramings in die breër literatuur lê. ’n Verdere toepassing van die EBI is in die berekening van sogenaamde optimale belastingkoerse. Die beraamde waarde van die EBI vir Suid Afrika dui dat daar min ruimte vir addisionele verhogings in marginale koerse is, veral onder hoë inkomste groepe. In Hoofstuk 3 verskuif die fokus na die makro-ekonomiese impak van fiskale beleidbesluite. Die hoofdoel van die hoofstuk is om sogenaamde fiskale vermenigvuldigers ("fiscal multipliers") te beraam. Hierdie vermenigvuldigers gee die verandering in spesifieke makro-ekonomiese veranderlikes, insluitend BBP, na afloop van ’n eksogene verandering in fiskale beleid. Die resultate wys dat die grootte van hierdie vermenigvuldigers afhang van beide die tegniek wat gebruik word om fiskale skokke te identifiseer, sowel as die spesifieke modelspesifikasie. Desnieteenstaande dui die beramings daarop dat bestedingsvermenigvuldigers positief maar kleiner as een is, terwyl belastingvermenigvuldigers relatief groot is. In Hoofstuk 4 word ’n strukturele model van die Suid-Afrikaanse ekomomie gebou in ’n poging om die impak van fiskale beleid te kwantifiseer. In die hoofstuk word ’n sogenaamde dinamiese stochastiese algemene ekwilibrium ("Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium") model beraam. Die model bevat a gedetailleerde fiskale blok met volledig gespesifiseerde fiskale gedragsreëls. Die model word gebruik om die impak van fiskale beleidsbesluite onder verskillende omstandighede te meet, met spesifieke verwysing na die impak van die tipe fiskale instrument wat gebruik word om die skuldlas te stabiliseer na afloop van ’n fiskale skok. Die bevindinge beaam die resultate van Hoofstuk 3 - bestedingsvermenigvuldigers is positief maar kleiner as een, terwyl belastingvermenigvuldigers negatief is. Die grootte van die vermenigvuldigers hang egter af van die funksionele vorm van die fiskale gedragsreël en die spesifieke eienskappe van die model. | af_ZA |
| dc.description.version | Doctoral | en_ZA |
| dc.format.extent | v, 171 pages ; illustrations, includes annexures | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/107770 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_ZA | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch Universit | en_ZA |
| dc.rights.holder | Stellenbosch Universit | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | National income -- South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Fiscal multipliers | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Equilibrium (Economics) -- South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Fiscal policy -- South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modelling | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Income tax -- South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | UCTD | |
| dc.title | Essays on fiscal policy in South Africa | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_ZA |