Changes in mortality of people living with HIV in South Africa and their potential implications for life assurers
Date
2016
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Actuarial Society of South Africa
Abstract
This research investigates the impact of improved (and improving) mortality experience in South Africa as a result of the increased (and increasing) access to antiretroviral treatment on South African life assurers, the entry-level insurance market and the wider South African economy. The research focuses on various potential impacts on the entry-level insurance market, including new business profitability, product development and pricing, market penetration and the potential for increased savings. This research has been done with the assistance of four of the main South African life offices and also draws on the new THEMBISA AIDS model on which a working paper has been produced. The research is based on the THEMBISA model in order to investigate the potential impact of alternative mortality scenarios on typical entry-level products within the industry where the scenarios have been based on actual current and proposed antiretroviral roll-out strategies by the Department of Health. Potential improvements to profitability, premium reductions, benefit enhancements and cashback benefits are quantified using a profit test model for entry-level market products.
Description
CITATION:Strydom, M. L., Corubolo, D. & Nel, C. 2016. Changes in mortality of people living with HIV in South Africa and their potential implications for life assurers. South African Actuarial Journal, 16:1-33. doi:10.4314/saaj.v16i1.1.
The original publication is available at http://www.actuarialsociety.org.za
The original publication is available at http://www.actuarialsociety.org.za
Keywords
AIDS (Disease) -- Patients -- Tembisa (South Africa), Insurance -- South Africa, CD4 count, Life insurance policies -- South Africa, Insurance policies -- South Africa
Citation
Strydom, M. L., Corubolo, D. & Nel, C. 2016. Changes in mortality of people living with HIV in South Africa and their potential implications for life assurers. South African Actuarial Journal, 16:1-33. doi:10.4314/saaj.v16i1.1