Examining the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on South African air travel

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dc.contributor.advisorKrygsman, Stephanen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSterley, Zack Badenen_ZA
dc.contributor.otherStellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics.en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2022-11-21T13:01:42Z
dc.date.accessioned2023-01-16T12:48:31Z
dc.date.available2022-11-21T13:01:42Z
dc.date.available2023-01-16T12:48:31Z
dc.date.issued2022-12
dc.descriptionThesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2022.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractENGLISH SUMMARY: The Covid-19 Pandemic halted national and international air-travel, causing the steepest decline in global air travel demand ever recorded. The purpose of this research study is to examine the impact that the Pandemic has and potentially will have on South African domestic and international air travel demand in the medium term. The impact was evaluated in two parts. The first used historic data to forecast the growth of airline demand, had the Pandemic not occurred. This “counterfactual” model was then compared to the actual passenger numbers recorded between the period from March 2020 to September 2021 to quantify the decline of air travel demand caused by the Covid-19 Pandemic within this period. To construct the counterfactual model for both the domestic and international air travel demand, pre-Pandemic passenger data from Airport Company South Africa (ACSA) was used to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model, type (2,1,0) x (1,0,0) 12. The model forecasts until the end of 2024, presenting a scenario of air travel demand which would have been expected in the absence of the Pandemic. The second part forecasted the short-term recovery in passenger air travel demand by fitting the intervention (the demand shock caused by the Covid-19 Pandemic) to the SARIMA model. This model was compared to the counterfactual model, to predict the loss in air travel demand until December 2022. The recovery forecast was also later assessed against actual observations to evaluate the accuracy of the model and to comment on its suitability for use in future studies. ACSA data showed that South African air demand dropped by 99% between March and April 2020. Between March 2020 and September 2021, the counterfactual model illustrates a total loss of between 42.5 million and 60.3 million domestic and international passengers. The recovery forecast suggested that, based on a neutral recovery scenario, domestic air travel would reach 64.5% of 2019 levels by the end of 2022. International recovery was predicted to settle lower at 34% of 2019 levels by December 2022. Furthermore, forecasting analysis found that South African passenger losses, for the period of March 2020 to June 2023, are expected to be 62.2 million for domestic and 30.2 million for international. Therefore, total losses for the period, attributed to the Covid-19 Pandemic and its associated effects on South African air travel demand, are expected to reach 92.4 million by June 2023. The results of this study confirm long-term implications for South African airlines, airports and the air travel industry in general. Findings from this study provide quantifiable evidence of the harsh impact that the Covid-19 Pandemic has had on the air travel industry. Findings also have the potential to aid government officials and industry stakeholders in strategic planning and decision making within future demand shocks. It is recommended that future researchers take the model constructed for this paper as a prototypical proof test to build on and to improve the accuracy and forecasting range. Doing so opens up opportunities to use the model to forecast recovery of time-series data in future demand crises.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractAFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar.af_ZA
dc.description.versionMasters
dc.format.extentxi, 149 pages : illustrations, includes annexures
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/126070
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherStellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
dc.rights.holderStellenbosch University
dc.subjectCOVID-19 (Disease) -- Flights -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectAir transportation industry -- Infections -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectAircraft industry -- Infections -- South Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectUCTD
dc.titleExamining the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on South African air travelen_ZA
dc.typeThesisen_ZA
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