Dynamics and control of infections on social networks of population types
Date
2018
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Random mixing in host populations has been a convenient simplifying assumption in the study of epidemics, but
neglects important differences in contact rates within and between population groups. For HIV/AIDS, the assumption
of random mixing is inappropriate for epidemics that are concentrated in groups of people at high risk,
including female sex workers (FSW) and their male clients (MCF), injecting drug users (IDU) and men who have
sex with men (MSM). To find out who transmits infection to whom and how that affects the spread and containment
of infection remains a major empirical challenge in the epidemiology of HIV/AIDS. Here we develop a
technique, based on the routine sampling of infection in linked population groups (a social network of population
types), which shows how an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Can Tho Province of Vietnam began in FSW, was
propagated mainly by IDU, and ultimately generated most cases among the female partners of MCF (FPM).
Calculation of the case reproduction numbers within and between groups, and for the whole network, provides
insights into control that cannot be deduced simply from observations on the prevalence of infection.
Specifically, the per capita rate of HIV transmission was highest from FSW to MCF, and most HIV infections
occurred in FPM, but the number of infections in the whole network is best reduced by interrupting transmission
to and from IDU. This analysis can be used to guide HIV/AIDS interventions using needle and syringe exchange,
condom distribution and antiretroviral therapy. The method requires only routine data and could be applied to
infections in other populations.
Description
CITATION: Williams, B. G. & Dye, C. 2018. Dynamics and control of infections on social networks of population types. Epidemics, 23:11–18, doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.10.002.
The original publication is available at https://www.sciencedirect.com
The original publication is available at https://www.sciencedirect.com
Keywords
Social interaction, Demographic surveys -- Vietnam, HIV infections -- Transmission -- Vietnam, HIV infections -- Prevention, HIV positive persons -- Sexual behavior
Citation
Williams, B. G. & Dye, C. 2018. Dynamics and control of infections on social networks of population types. Epidemics, 23:11–18, doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2017.10.002