Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies

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dc.contributor.authorMartens, Carolaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHickler, Thomasen_Za
dc.contributor.authorDavis-Reddy, Claireen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorEngelbrecht, Francoisen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHiggins, Steven I.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorVon Maltitz, Graham P.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMidgley, Guy F.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorPfeiffer, Mirjamen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorScheiter, Simonen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2023-04-18T08:10:04Z
dc.date.available2023-04-18T08:10:04Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionCITATION: Martens, C, Hickler, T, Davis-Reddy, C, et al. Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies. Glob Change Biol. 2020; 27: 340– 358. doi.10.1111/gcb.15390en_ZA
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at: wiley.comen_ZA
dc.description.abstractAnthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between –8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and –22 to –6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.en_ZA
dc.description.versionPublisher’s versionen_ZA
dc.format.extent19 pages : illustrations (some color), mapsen_ZA
dc.identifier.citationMartens, C, Hickler, T, Davis-Reddy, C, et al. Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies. Glob Change Biol. 2020; 27: 340– 358. doi.10.1111/gcb.15390en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1354-1013 (print)en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn1365-2486 (online)en_ZA
dc.identifier.otherdoi.10.1111/gcb.15390en_ZA
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/126792
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherJohn Wiley & Sons Ltden_ZA
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyrighten_ZA
dc.subjectAdaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM)en_ZA
dc.subjectBiomes -- Africaen_ZA
dc.subjectCarbon stocksen_ZA
dc.subjectClimatic changesen_ZA
dc.subjectCO2 fertilizationen_ZA
dc.subjectEnsemble simulationsen_ZA
dc.subjectBiodiversity -- Climatic factorsen_ZA
dc.subjectBiomass water use efficiencyen_ZA
dc.subjectCarbon dioxide -- Effect of fires on -- Simulationen_ZA
dc.titleLarge uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategiesen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
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