A simple ecological model captures the transmission pattern of COVID-19 outbreak in China

Simple item page
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Fengen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorZhang, Jinmeien_ZA
dc.contributor.authorCao, Menglanen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorHui, Cangen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2020-05-21T11:57:49Z
dc.date.available2020-05-21T11:57:49Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.descriptionCITATION: Zhang, F. et al. 2020. A simple ecological model captures the transmission pattern of COVID-19 outbreak in China. BMC Infectious Diseases, doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-27784/v1.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com
dc.description.abstractBackground The rapid spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19), initially reported in the city of Wuhan in China, and quickly transmitted to the entire nation and beyond, has become an international public health emergency. Estimating the final number of infection cases and the turning point (time with the fastest spreading rate) is crucial to assessing and improving the national and international control measures currently being applied. Methods We develop a simple model based on infectious growth with a time-varying infection rate, and estimate the final number of infections and the turning point using data updated daily from 3 February 2020, when China escalated its initial public health measures, to 10 February. Results Our model provides an extremely good fit to the existing data and therefore a reasonable estimate of the time-varying infection rate that has largely captured the transmission pattern of this epidemic outbreak. Our estimation suggests that (i) the final number of infections in China could reach 78,000 with an upper 95% confidence limit of 88,880; (ii) the turning point of the fastest spread was on the 4th or the 5th of February; and (iii) the projected period for the end of the outbreak (i.e., when 95% of the final predicted number of infection is reached) will be the 24th of February, with an upper 95% confidence limit on the 19th of March. Conclusions Our results suggest that the current control measures in China are excellent, and more than sufficient to contain the spread of this highly infectious novel coronavirus, and that the application of such measures could be considered internationally for the global control of this outbreak.en_ZA
dc.description.versionPre-print
dc.format.extent9 pages
dc.identifier.citationZhang, F. et al. 2020. A simple ecological model captures the transmission pattern of COVID-19 outbreak in China. BMC Infectious Diseases, doi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-27784/v1.
dc.identifier.issn1471-2334 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.21203/rs.3.rs-27784/v1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/108584
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherBioMed Central
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright
dc.subjectCOVID-19 (Disease) -- Prevention -- Chinaen_ZA
dc.subjectCommunicable diseases -- Transmission -- Mathematical modelsen_ZA
dc.subjectEcological mappingen_ZA
dc.titleA simple ecological model captures the transmission pattern of COVID-19 outbreak in Chinaen_ZA
dc.typeArticleen_ZA
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
zhang_simple_2020.pdf
Size:
490.24 KB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format
Description:
Download article
Download
License bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Thumbnail Image
Name:
license.txt
Size:
1.71 KB
Format:
Item-specific license agreed upon to submission
Description:
Download
Collections
Research Articles (Mathematical Sciences)