Physical patterns and post-hoc measures of wildfire behaviour in grassland
| dc.contributor.advisor | Midgley, Guy F. | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Beckett, Heath | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.author | Danckwerts, Matthew | en_ZA |
| dc.contributor.other | Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Science. Dept. of Botany and Zoology. | en_ZA |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2022-08-24T13:21:28Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-01-16T12:39:40Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2022-08-24T13:21:28Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-01-16T12:39:40Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2022-12 | |
| dc.description | Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2022. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Wildland fires are an intrinsic feature of seasonal grassland and savanna ecosystems, and are thus guaranteed to occur at some frequency in these systems. In addition, fire managers and practitioners in southern Africa use fire as a management tool in these rangeland systems to achieve an array of management goals for ecological, agricultural, and safety purposes. The occurrence of uncontrolled fires potentially attributable to human agency and accompanied by damage to property and associated litigation is an inevitable outcome in these wildland fire systems. The fields of fire litigation and forensics are, however, under-developed for such wildfire systems in which the inference of deliberate, accidental, and natural contributors to events is critical. Post-hoc physical indicators of wildfire pattern and spread, as well as fire behaviour prediction models are used by experts to determine origin, spread, and behaviour of fires in forensic wildland fire investigations conducted in contemplation of litigation. A review of post-hoc wildfire behaviour indicators relevant to forensic wildfire investigations, detailing application, reliability, and limitations, identified a suite of indicators of potential value in such circumstances. Selected post-hoc indicators and prediction models of fire behaviour were then tested for their suitability and utility across a range of fuel and weather conditions in montane grassland systems of the Greater Winterberg region, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Real-time fire behaviour data were gathered from 143 fires across seven sites and compared with corresponding post-fire indicator expression and prediction model outputs. Slope proved to be a critical driver of fire behaviour in the mountainous Eastern Cape grassland systems. Fire behaviour models (encompassing a wide range of fuel model configurations constructed for southern African grassland systems), did not suitably predict (or retrodict) actual fire conditions, generally under-predicting rate of spread, fire intensity, & flame length values. McArthur models, derived from field-based data, proved to be the most suitable predictors of fire behaviour in Eastern Cape montane grasslands. It is recommended that current fuel model and input assumptions which exist for southern African grassland and savanna systems be re-evaluated. Residual ash colour, curling, spalling, and residual ash organic carbon content were found to be unreliable forensic indicators of wildfire pattern and spread. Foliage freeze, cupping of grass tussocks, consumption depth of grass tussocks, amount of residual unburnt plant litter, protection, sooting, & staining were considered reliable, but in some cases may be site specific and need to be applied in conjunction with each other to draw accurate and reliable conclusions of fire pattern and spread. The presence of undercut culms and leeside charring on pole-type fuels are almost unequivocal indicators of back fires and wind direction, respectively. These findings suggest that certain post-hoc wildland fire pattern and spread indicators must be re- evaluated, and practitioners are advised to adopt an adaptive approach to indicator interpretation, applying fire behavioural science of the processes and drivers of indicator formation and expression, while collectively incorporating several indicators in conjunction with each other before forming conclusions on origin, cause, and spread of ‘runaway’ wildfires. | en_ZA |
| dc.description.abstract | AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Veldbrande is 'n intrinsieke kenmerk van seisoenale grasveld en savanne ekosisteme, en is dus gewaarborg om op 'n sekere frekwensie in hierdie stelsels te voorkom. Daarbenewens gebruik brandbestuurders en praktisyns in Suider-Afrika vuur as 'n bestuursinstrument in hierdie weiveldstelsels om 'n verskeidenheid bestuursdoelwitte vir ekologiese, landbou en veiligheidsdoeleindes te bereik. Die voorkoms van onbeheerde brande moontlik toeskryfbaar aan menslike agentskap wat gepaard gaan met skade aan eiendom en regseise is 'n onvermydelike uitkoms in hierdie veldbrandstelsels. Die onderwerpe van brandlitigasie en forensiese ondersoeke is egter onderontwikkel vir sulke veldbrandstelsels waarin die afleiding van doelbewuste, toevallige en natuurlike bydraers tot gebeure krities is. Post-hoc fisiese aanwysers van veldbrandpatroon en verspreiding, sowel as brandgedragvoorspellingsmodelle word deur kundiges gebruik om oorsprong, verspreiding en gedrag van brande te bepaal in forensiese veldbrandondersoeke wat uitgevoer word in oorweging van litigasie. 'n Lieteraturr-oorsig van post-hoc veldbrandgedrag-aanwysers wat relevant is vir forensiese veldbrandondersoeke, met besonderhede oor toepassing, betroubaarheid en beperkings, het 'n reeks aanwysers van potensiële waarde in sulke omstandighede geïdentifiseer. Geselekteerde post-hoc aanwysers en voorspellingsmodelle van brandgedrag is getoets vir hul geskiktheid en bruikbaarheid oor 'n reeks brandstof- en weerstoestande in berggrasveldstelsels van die Groter Winterberg-streek, Oos- Kaap, Suid-Afrika. Brandgedragdata is van 143 brande oor sewe terreine versamel en vergelyk met ooreenstemmende na- brand-aanwyseruitdrukking en voorspellingsmodeluitsette. Helling was 'n kritieke drywer van brandgedrag in die bergagtige Oos-Kaapse grasveldstelsels. Brandgedragmodelle (wat 'n wye reeks brandstofmodelkonfigurasies insluit wat vir Suider-Afrikaanse grasveldstelsels gebou is), het werklike brandtoestande nie behoorlik voorspel (of teruggespel) nie, gewoonlik onder voorspelling van verspreidingstempo, brandintensiteit en vlamlengtewaardes. McArthur-modelle, afgelei van veldgebaseerde data, het geblyk die mees geskikte voorspellers van brandgedrag in Oos-Kaapse berggraslande te wees. Dit word aanbeveel dat huidige brandstofmodel en insetaannames wat bestaan vir Suider-Afrikaanse grasveld- en savannestelsels herevalueer word. Daar is gevind dat oorblywende askleur, krul, spatsels en oorblywende as-organiese koolstofinhoud onbetroubare aanwysers van veldbrandpatroon en verspreiding is. Blaarvriesing, opvul van graspolle, verbruiksdiepte van graspolle, hoeveelheid oorblywende onverbrande plantrommel, beskerming, roeting en kleuring is as betroubaar beskou, maar kan in sommige gevalle plekspesifiek wees en moet in samewerking met mekaar toegedien word om maak akkurate en betroubare gevolgtrekkings van brandpatroon en verspreiding. Die teenwoordigheid van ondersnyde halms en verkooling op paaltipe brandstowwe is byna onomwonde aanduidings van onderskeidelik terugbrande en windrigting. Hierdie bevindings dui daarop dat sekere post-hoc veldbrandpatroon en verspreidingsaanwysers herevalueer moet word, en praktisyns word aangeraai om 'n aanpasbare benadering tot aanwyserinterpretasie aan te neem, deur brandgedragswetenskap van die prosesse en dryfvere van aanwyservorming en uitdrukking toe te pas, terwyl hulle gesamentlik verskeie aanwysers in samewerking met mekaar in te sluit voordat gevolgtrekkings gemaak word oor oorsprong, oorsaak en verspreiding van 'weghol' veldbrande. | af_ZA |
| dc.description.version | Masters | en_ZA |
| dc.format.extent | 268 pages : illustrations (some color), maps | en_ZA |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/125882 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_ZA | en_ZA |
| dc.publisher | Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University | en_ZA |
| dc.rights.holder | Stellenbosch University | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Grasslands -- South Africa -- Measurement | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Grasslands -- South Africa -- Eastern Cape | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Fire behavior | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Wildfires -- Prevention and control | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Modelling | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Wildfires -- Climatic factors | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | Wildland fires -- Management | en_ZA |
| dc.subject | UCTD | en_ZA |
| dc.title | Physical patterns and post-hoc measures of wildfire behaviour in grassland | en_ZA |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_ZA |
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