Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil : an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics

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dc.contributor.authorXavier, Marcos Vinicius Eloyen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorBassi, Andrea Marcelloen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorDe Souza, Cibele Mallyen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorFilho, Wilson Pereira Barbosaen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorSchleiss, Kevinen_ZA
dc.contributor.authorNunes, Felipeen_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2014-07-06T17:15:33Z
dc.date.available2014-07-06T17:15:33Z
dc.date.issued2013
dc.descriptionCITATION: Xavier, M. V. E. et al. 2013. Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil : an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 3:17, doi:10.1186/2192-0567-3-17.
dc.descriptionThe original publication is available at https://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com
dc.description.abstractBackground: Developing medium- to long-term energy scenarios is a key to achieve goals of energy security and greenhouse gas emission reduction through the implementation of effective public policies. Methods: Despite the availability of many tools and methods that focus on energy planning from an engineering perspective, only a few approaches have the methodological capabilities to build energy scenarios and quantify their impacts across social and environment indicators in a dynamic and flexible way. To fill this gap, we have created a System Dynamics model customized for the state of Minas Gerais in Brazil to simulate possible trajectories of energy demand and supply. Results Two scenarios were developed: a business-as-usual case (BAU), with no major changes in the energy profile of the state; the other is an alternative scenario, where the reduction of carbon intensity (RIC) is a key goal. To summarize the results, the scenario RIC has lower greenhouse gas emissions and greater energy generation and employment, but has a total cumulative cost higher than BAU as the final indicators estimated. Conclusions: We can see important opportunities to contribute to global climate change mitigation while fostering a low-carbon energy sector and a green economy in the state. By investing in the renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, technological improvements, and the targets analyzed in this study, Minas Gerais State could reduce political and financial risks originating from the reliance on fossil fuels while generating more income in the energy sector and the state economy as a whole and reducing medium- and longer-term costs.
dc.description.urihttps://energsustainsoc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/2192-0567-3-17
dc.description.versionPublisher's version
dc.format.extent13 pages
dc.identifier.citationEnergy, Sustainability and Society
dc.identifier.citation3
dc.identifier.citation17
dc.identifier.citation1
dc.identifier.citation13
dc.identifier.citationXavier, M. V. E. et al. 2013. Energy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil : an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamics. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 3:17, doi:10.1186/2192-0567-3-17.
dc.identifier.issn2192-0567 (online)
dc.identifier.otherdoi:10.1186/2192-0567-3-17
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/87771
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherBioMed Central
dc.rights.holderAuthors retain copyright
dc.subjectPower resources -- Brazilen_ZA
dc.titleEnergy scenarios for the Minas Gerais State in Brazil : an integrated modeling exercise using System Dynamicsen_ZA
dc.typeArticle
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