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A risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industry

dc.contributor.advisorFourie, C. J.en_ZA
dc.contributor.advisorVon Leipzig, K. H.en_ZA
dc.contributor.authorMc Naught, M. D.en_ZA
dc.contributor.otherStellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.en_ZA
dc.date.accessioned2015-12-14T07:42:54Z
dc.date.available2015-12-14T07:42:54Z
dc.date.issued2015-12
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/97871
dc.descriptionThesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractENGLISH ABSTRACT: In chaotic maintenance environments, executing planned maintenance becomes difficult because the need for immediate corrective action escalates. Reverting back from a poor system state to a stable and well maintained one is a challenge. Railway track environments are prone to system degradation and poor maintenance. They are, therefore, in need of analytical tools to 'get on track' with maintenance. A risk-based method which grades track corridors between train stations according to their level of risk was developed. To achieve this, both the likelihood and the severity components of risk were considered. The likelihood component of risk in the track environment is the reliability of track. Reliability was calculated by quantifying track failure modes first and then analysing the characteristics of failures for each track corridor. Probabilistic models were generated from repairable systems reliability theory from which reliability predictions were made. The severity component of risk is the average delay historically experienced by each track corridor. A risk matrix was developed which brings together likelihood and severity components of risk for each track corridor. Maintenance prioritisation is possible from the risk rankings created by the matrix. The risk rankings for five track corridors were validated when a condition-based track maintenance tool, TQI, was in agreement.en_ZA
dc.description.abstractAFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die chaotiese instandhoudingsomgewing is dit moeilik om beplande onderhoud uit te voer, aangesien die nodigheid vir onmiddellike regstellende aksie toeneem. Om terug te keer van 'n swak stelsel na 'n stabiele en goed instandgehoue stelsel is 'n uitdaging. Spoorweg-omgewings is geneig tot stelselagteruitgang en swak instandhouding. Daar is dus 'n behoefte aan analitiese metodes om weer op die regte skedule te begin volg met instandhouding. 'n Risiko-gebaseerde metode wat spoorweë tussen stasies gradeer volgens hulle risiko is ontwikkel. Om dit reg te kry, is beide die waarskynlikheid en die graad van erns van risiko's in ag geneem. Die waarskynlikheid van risiko in die spoor-omgewing is die betroubaarheid van die spoor. Betroubaarheid wordbereken deur eerstens die hoeveelheid spoorfalings te bepaal en dan die kenmerke van die falings vir elke spoorweg te analiseer. Waarskynlikheidsmodelle is opgestel van herstelbare stelsels betroubaarheidsteorie van waar betroubaarheidsvoorspellings gemaak is. Die graad van erns van risiko's is die gemiddelde vertraging wat histories deur elke spoorweg ondervind is. 'n Risiko-matriks wat die waarskynlikheid en graad van erns van risiko's kombineer is vir elke spoorweg ontwikkel. Instandhoudings-prioritisering word moontlik gemaak deur die risiko-graderings volgens die matriks. Die risiko-graderings vir vyf-spoor spoorweë is bevestig toe 'n voorwaarde-gebaseerde instandhoudingsprogram, TQI, eenparigheid bereik het.af_ZA
dc.format.extent172 pages : illustrationsen_ZA
dc.language.isoen_ZAen_ZA
dc.publisherStellenbosch : Stellenbosch Universityen_ZA
dc.subjectRailway industry -- Maintenanceen_ZA
dc.subjectRailway track reliabilityen_ZA
dc.subjectPerway (section of railway track) -- Maintenance prioritisationen_ZA
dc.subjectUCTDen_ZA
dc.titleA risk-reliability comparison of track sections in the passenger railway industryen_ZA
dc.typeThesisen_ZA
dc.rights.holderStellenbosch Universityen_ZA


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