2050 Scenarios for long-haul tourism in the evolving global climate change regime
Date
2012-12
Authors
Vorster, Shaun
Ungerer, Marius
Volschenk, Jako
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute (MDPI)
Abstract
Tourism and its “midwife”, aviation, are transnational sectors exposed to global
uncertainties. This scenario-building exercise considers a specific subset of these
uncertainties, namely the impact of the evolving global climate change regime on
long-haul tourism (LHT), with a 2050 horizon. The basic problematique is that
unconstrained growth in aviation emissions will not be compatible with 2050 climate
stabilisation goals, and that the stringency and timing of public policy interventions could
have far-reaching impacts—either on the market for future growth of LHT, or the natural
ecosystem on which tourism depends. Following an intuitive-logic approach to
scenario-building, three meta-level scenarios that can be regarded as “possible” futures for
the evolution of LHT are described. Two of these, i.e., the “grim reaper” and the “fallen
angel” scenarios, are undesirable. The “green lantern” scenario represents the desired
future. Long-haul tourist destinations should heed the early warning signals identified in
the scenario narratives, and contribute towards realising the desired future. They should
further guard against being passive victims if the feared scenarios materialise, by adapting,
repositioning early upon reading the signposts, hedging against risks, and seizing
new opportunities.
Description
Publication of this article was funded by the Stellenbosch University Open Access Fund.
The original publication is available at http://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
The original publication is available at http://www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
Keywords
Tourism -- Environmental aspects, Biofuels -- Environmental aspects, Climatic changes, Aircraft exhaust emissions -- Environmental aspects
Citation
Vorster, S., Ungerer, M. & Volschenk, J. 2012. 2050 Scenarios for long-haul tourism in the evolving global climate change regime. Sustainability, 5(1), 1-51, doi:10.3390/su5010001.