A strategic forestry development plan for the Western area of Sierra Leone

Alieu, Emmanuel Keifala (1996)

Thesis (M. Sc.) -- University of Stellenbosch, 1996.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study comprises forecasting the demand for sawnwood, construction poles (mostly Anisophyllea laurina) and Funtumia africana logs for utilization in the Western Area of Sierra Leone. Trend analysis of production, sales and consumption of the three products covering the period 1985 to 1995, form the basis of the demand forecasts for the period 1996 to 2005. The trend of each of fifteen data surces for the three products are initially analysed using seven different regression models on a comparative basis. The compound growth model described the trend better than the other six and was therefore used in projecting the future demand for most data sources and products. The possible effects of demand shifters are taken into account and the initial forecasts are amended accordingly. Both Quattro-Pro (version 3.0) and Statgraphics (versions 3.0 and 6.0) are used in the initial trend analysis. The demand forescasts to the year 2005 are used to develop short-, medium- and long-term project proposals aimed at the satisfaction of these demands. The environmental limitations of the Western Area are taken into account in the development of the project proposals. Social, physical and logistical constraints are considered in the drafting of the strategic forestry development plan for the Western Area of Sierra Leone.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie behels die vooruitskatting van die vraag na gesagde hout, pale vir konstruksie (meestal Anisophylles laurina) en Funtumia africana-blokke vir benutting in die Westelike Gebied van Sierra Leone. Tendensontleding van produksie, verkope en verbruik van die drie produkte gedurende die periode 1985 tot 1995, vorm die basis van die vooruitskattings van die vraag vir die tydperk 1996 tot 2005. Die tendens van elk van vyftien databronne vir die drie produkte word ontleed deur gebruik te maak van sewe verskileende regressiemodelle op 'n vergelykende basis. Die saamgestelde groeimodel het die neigings beter beskryf as die ander ses en is gevolglik in geval van die meeste databronne en produkte vir tendenontleding gebruik. Die moontlike uitwerking van vraagverskuiwers word in aanmerking geneem en die aanvanklike vooruitskattings word dienoorkomstig aangepas. Quattro-Pro (weergawe 3.0) sowel as Statgraphics (weergawes 3.0 en 6.0) word vir die aanvanklike tendensontleding gebruik. Die vooruitskattings van die vraag tot by die jaar 2005 word gebruik vir die ontwikkeling van kort-, medium- en langtermyn projekvoorstelle wat gemik is op die bevrediging van hierdie vraag. Die omgewingsbeperkings van die projekvoorstelle. Sosiale, fisiese en logistieke beperkings word oorweeg tydens die opstellings van die strategiese bosbou-ontwikkelingsplan vir die Westelike Gebied van Sierra Leone.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/55001
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