A heuristic integrated planning decision support model for large multiple capital projects

Coetzee, Stephanus Johannes (1999-11)

Dissertation (Ph.D.(Ing)) -- University of Stellenbosch, 1999.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In order to do proper long-term planning for major capital projects which are funded collectively by a central body (e.g. the government), input is required from strategic level as well as from project managers at tactical level to ensure that planning requirements are included from all levels of management. This input is processed by means of a heuristic capital planning and decision support model so that the results, which comply with most of the given constraints, can indicate financial and other impacts on all role players during the execution of the capital project. Through this, good decisions can be made with regard to the projects and investments. At strategic level, budgets, requirements· and priorities of the various projects are taken into consideration, while at tactical level, schedules, project and subproject cash flow predictions are calculated. With this a chosen schedule can be formulated. The impact of the chosen schedule on human resources and various engineering functions can be evaluated, after which sensitivity analyses are conducted. After the completion of sensitivity analyses, decision makers at strategic level can accept an appropriate near optimal macro schedule. Hereafter the final results are made available to decision makers and executors at tactical level. Insight into long-term cash flow requirements can be derived from the available information. All the major capital projects can be scheduled and the requirements in terms of high-level manpower can be determined so that strategic decisions can be made. Owing to the complexity of the model, which results from the many possible combinations that may occur, a heuristic approach is proposed for doing the capital planning. The impact on various factors, for example the impact on human resources, is determined from the schedule results. Any changes that might be necessitated by the schedule results can be negotiated with the role players, based on the output of the programme.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING:Langterrnynbeplanning van groot kapitaalprojekte waarvan die fondse deur 'n sentrale instansie (bv. die regering) voorsien word, benodig insette vanaf strategiese vlak asook van projekbestuurders op die taktiese vlak om te verseker dat beplanningsbehoeftes alle vlak:ke van bestuur insluit. Hierdie insette word deur midde1 van 'n heuristiese kapitaalbeplannings- en besluitnemingsondersteuningsmodel verwerk sodat resultate wat aan die meeste van die gegewe beperkings voldoen, finansiele en ander impakte aan al die rolspelers tydens die uitvoering van die kapitaalprojekproses uitwys. Hierdeur word ingeligte projek- en be1eggingsbesluite gemaak:. Op strategiese vlak word begrotings, behoeftes en prioriteite van projekte aangespreek terwyl daar op taktiese vlak skedules en kontaptvloeivooruitskattings vir projekte en subprojekte bereken word. Hierrnee word 'n gekose skedule geformuleer. Die impak van die gekose skedule op menslike hulpbronne en verskeie ingenieursfunksies word geevalueer waarna sensitiwiteitsanalises gedoen word. Na die afhandeling van sensitiwiteitsanalises kan 'n geskikte naby-optimale makroskedule deur die besluitnemers op strategiese vlak aanvaar word. Hiema word finale resultate aan besluitnemers en uitvoerders op taktiese vlak beskikbaar gestel. Insig in die hoevlak:mannekragbehoefte en die langterrnyn-kontantvloeibehoefte kan met behulp van die geskeduleerde groot kapitaalprojekte en geprosesseerde inligting afgelei word sodat strategiese besluite geneem kan word. Vanwee die kompleksiteit van die model wat uit die baie moontlike kombinasies spruit, word 'n heuristiese benadering voorgeste1 om die beplanning van kapitaalprojekte te doen. Die impak op verskeie faktore, soos byvoorbeeld die impak op menslike bronne, word op grond van die skeduleresultate bereken. Enige verandering wat op grond van die impakanalise nodig mag wees, kan met behulp van die programresultate en deur middel van onderhandelinge tussen die rolspelers aangebring word.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/51111
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