Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana : a population level mathematical modelling approach
Date
2020-11-23
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
BMC (part of Springer Nature)
Abstract
Background: This paper investigates the impact of malaria preventive interventions in Ghana and the prospects of
achieving programme goals using mathematical models based on regionally diverse climatic zones of the country.
Methods: Using data from the District Health Information Management System of the Ghana Health Service from
2008 to 2017, and historical intervention coverage levels, ordinary non-linear differential equations models were
developed. These models incorporated transitions amongst various disease compartments for the three main ecological
zones in Ghana. The Approximate Bayesian Computational sampling approach, with a distance based rejection
criteria, was adopted for calibration. A leave-one-out approach was used to validate model parameters and the most
sensitive parameters were evaluated using a multivariate regression analysis. The impact of insecticide-treated bed
nets and their usage, and indoor residual spraying, as well as their protective efficacy on the incidence of malaria, was
simulated at various levels of coverage and protective effectiveness in each ecological zone to investigate the prospects
of achieving goals of the Ghana malaria control strategy for 2014–2020.
Results: Increasing the coverage levels of both long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor residual spraying
activities, without a corresponding increase in their recommended utilization, does not impact highly on averting
predicted incidence of malaria. Improving proper usage of long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets could lead to
substantial reductions in the predicted incidence of malaria. Similar results were obtained with indoor residual spraying
across all ecological zones of Ghana.
Conclusions: Projected goals set in the national strategic plan for malaria control 2014–2020, as well as World Health
Organization targets for malaria pre-elimination by 2030, are only likely to be achieved if a substantial improvement in
treated bed net usage is achieved, coupled with targeted deployment of indoor residual spraying with high community
acceptability and efficacy.
Description
CITATION: Awine, T. & Silal, S. P. 2020. Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana : a population level mathematical modelling approach. Malaria Journal, 19:423, doi:10.1186/s12936-020-03496-y.
The original publication is available at https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com
The original publication is available at https://malariajournal.biomedcentral.com
Keywords
Malaria -- Prevention -- Ghana -- Mathematical models.
Citation
Awine, T. & Silal, S. P. 2020. Accounting for regional transmission variability and the impact of malaria control interventions in Ghana : a population level mathematical modelling approach. Malaria Journal, 19:423, doi:10.1186/s12936-020-03496-y