Migration and urbanisation in South Africa and Namibia : an investigation of the intersection between location, deprivation and opportunity in a developing country context

Moses, Eldridge Granville (2020-03)

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2020.

Thesis

ENGLISH ABSTRACT: South Africa and Namibia are two of the most unequal countries in the world. These inequalities have very strong and persistent racial and geographic dimensions due to the legacy of colonial and apartheid segregationist policies, which today manifest themselves in large rural-urban area and racial differences in education and labour market opportunities. Spatial inequalities in both countries have encouraged rapid urbanisation despite labour market prospects being poor. As a result, numerous studies have investigated the roles of spatial location and mobility, and the role that that mobility has in alleviating poverty and inequality in the Southern African context over time. This dissertation contributes to the Southern African literature in two ways. Firstly, it identifies individual and region-level characteristics that influence migration decisions at the individual level, and at the aggregate level by analysing gross migration flows. Secondly, it contributes to a very small body of South African literature using panel data to study the dynamics of new urban household formation. The empirical evidence presented in this dissertation shows that internal migration in South Africa continues to be an age and education-selective process. Previous migration experience, as well as sending area net out-migration rates significantly increase the probability of internal migration in South Africa. These findings are robust to the inclusion of various individual and region-level controls. The study of urban informal area household formation in South Africa reveals that relative youth, marital status changes and recent migration positively affect the probability of forming a new urban informal household. The study also finds that urban informal area residents have weak labour market prospects relative to urban formal area residents, but in most respects fare as well as or better than traditional authority residents. The gravity model estimated using Namibian data shows that constituency-level factors affect migration flows in different ways, dependent on the distance traveled. The contribution of this study to the literature is the finding that studying migration flows without group disaggregation may mask differences in migrant motivations.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Suid-Afrika en Namibië is twee van die mees ongelyke lande in die wêreld. Hierdie ongelykheid het baie sterk en voortdurende rasse- en geografiese aspekte weens die erfenis van koloniale en apartheid-segregasiebeleide, wat hul vandag manifesteer as groot landelik-stedelike en rasse-verskille in opvoeding en geleenthede in die arbeidsmark. Ruimtelike ongelykhede in beide lande het vinnige verstedeliking aangemoedig, ten spyte van swak arbeidsmark geleenthede. Gevolglik het verskeie studies die rolle van ruimtelike ligging en mobiliteit ondersoek, en die rol wat daardie mobiliteit speel in die verligting van armoede en ongelykheid in die Suidelike Afrika-konteks oor tyd. Hierdie verhandeling dra by tot die Suider-Afrikaanse literatuur op twee wyses. Eerstens identifiseer dit individuele en streekvlak-kenmerke wat migrasie-besluite op die individuele vlak en in die algemeen beïnvloed, deur bruto migrasie-vloei te analiseer. Tweedens dra dit by tot ’n baie beperkte Suid-Afrikaanse literatuur deur die gebruik van paneeldata om die dinamika van die vorming van nuwe stedelike huishoudings te bestudeer. Die empiriese bewyse aangebied in hierdie verhandeling toon dat interne migrasie in Suid-Afrika steeds ’n ouderdom- en opvoeding-selektiewe proses is. Vorige migrasie ondervinding, sowel as die netto uit-migrasiekoerse uit die brongebied, verhoog die waarskynlikheid van interne migrasie in Suid-Afrika aansienlik. Hierdie bevindings is geldig, selfs met die insluiting van verskillende individuele en streekvlak-kontroles. Die studie van stedelike huishouding-vorming in informele gebiede in Suid-Afrika onthul dat relatiewe jeugdigheid, veranderinge in huwelikstatus, en onlangse migrasie ’n positiewe verband het met die waarskynlikheid dat ’n nuwe stedelike informele huishouding gevorm sal word. Die studie vind ook dat stedelike inwoners van stedelike informele gebiede swak arbeidsmark-vooruitsigte het vergeleke met stedelike inwoners van formele gebiede, maar in die meeste opsigte goed vaar of beter vaar as inwoners van gebiede met tradisionele owerhede. Die gravitasie-model beraam, met die gebruik van Namibiese data, dat faktore op distriksvlak die migrasie-vloei op verskillende wyses beïnvloed, afhangend van die afstande wat gereis word. Die bydrae van hierdie studie tot die literatuur is die bevinding dat die bestudering van migrasie-vloei, sonder om te onderskei tussen groeperings, die verskille in migrasie-motiverings mag verbloem.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/107869
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