Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa

Pearson, Carl A. B. ; Van Schalkwyk, Cari ; Foss, Anna M. ; O'Reilly, Kathleen M. ; CMMID COVID-19 working group ; SACEMA ; Pulliam, Juliet R. C. (2020)

CITATION: Pearson, C. A. et al. 2020. Projected early spread of COVID-19 in Africa, doi:10.1101/2020.04.05.20054403 .

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For African countries currently reporting COVID-19 cases, we estimate when they will report more than 1 000 and 10 000 cases. Assuming current trends, more than 80% are likely to exceed 1 000 cases by the end of April 2020, with most exceeding 10 000 a few weeks later.

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