A new institutional economics (NIE) perspective on institutional change and leadership in Rwanda, from pre-history to post-genocide

Viljoen, Christie (2019-04)

Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2019.

Thesis

ENGLISH SUMMARY : This dissertation uses development theory and principles of New Institutional Economics (NIE) as points of departure to study the role of leadership and other aspects of institutional change in Rwanda’s history. Alston, Melo, Mueller and Pereira’s (2016) critical transitions framework, which emphasises the role of leadership in institutional change, serves as a conceptual framework for the analysis. This framework identifies shocks to economic and political outcomes as the sources of opportunities for individuals or groups to show leadership, change the dominant network and their beliefs, and implement institutional change. The study applies the critical transitions framework to Rwanda’s history to identify five epochs of institutional change: (i) the ‘Golden Era’ (pre-history to 1894); (ii) colonial period (1894-1961); (iii) First Republic (1961-1973); (iv) Second Republic (1973-1994); and (v) the post-genocide period (1994 to the present). The most recent period followed the genocide in 1994 that was spurred by a recurrent theme in the country's history, namely ethnic tension between Hutu and Tutsi. Since then, Rwanda has displayed one of the most impressive examples of post-conflict reconstruction in human history. Amongst Rwanda's achievements was being named by the World Bank's Doing Business project as the country that made the largest number of reforms to improve its business environment during the past decade and a half. This study uses Doing Business data to quantify pro-business institutional change from 2002 to 2013. The bases for this choice are the associations between the data collected by Doing Business and key concepts in NIE, as well as the theoretical underpinnings of the Doing Business project. This dissertation employs fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), a set-theoretic technique that allows for equifinality (various routes to an outcome), to analyse the determinants of pro-business institutional change in Rwanda and in Sub-Saharan African countries more generally. The analysis attempts to explain such institutional change in terms of combinations of five causal conditions: transactional leadership, state fragility, the strength of the business environment prior to the reforms, and the democratic and autocratic features of the polity. The results for Rwanda indicate that effective transactional leadership, a governance style with few democratic features and many autocratic elements, and an already-supportive business environment at the start of the period influenced pro-business institutional change from 2002 to 2013. The country’s leaders established structures for dialogue and engagement with stakeholders outside of the ruling party and for coordination of actions by different state departments and other stakeholders. They also created an environment of stakeholder commitment to implementation of projects and policies. Nsanzabaganwa’s (2012) connectedness model explains the policymaking processes behind institutional change in Rwanda. It describes policymaking in the country as a product of the interaction between the politician, policy expert, private sector and change manager. Political scientists now know that autocracies frequently establish the same economic institutions that academics historically viewed as typical hallmarks of democratic governments. The co-existence of an inclusive policymaking process and a relatively autocratic political regime in Rwanda is consistent with this phenomenon. This dissertation has a strong focus on change in formal institutions, but also highlights the role of informal institutions (like trust) in change processes. The main suggestion for future research that emanates from this dissertation is that analyses of institutional change should give more attention to the interplay between leadership and informal institutions. However, complex measurement problems would have to be overcome before informal institutions can receive more prominence in such analyses.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Hierdie proefskrif gebruik ontwikkelingsteorie en beginsels van Nuwe Institusionele Ekonomie (NIE) as vertrekpunte om die rol van leierskap en ander aspekte van institusionele verandering in die geskiedenis van Rwanda te bestudeer. Alston, Melo, Mueller en Pereira (2016) se “critical transitions framework”, wat die rol van leierskap in institusionele verandering beklemtoon, dien as ʼn konsepsuele raamwerk vir die ontleding. Dié raamwerk identifiseer skokke in ekonomiese en politieke uitkomste as die bronne van geleenthede vir individue of groepe om leierskap te toon, die dominante netwerk en hul oortuigings te verander, en institusionele verandering te implementeer. Die studie pas die “critical transitions framework” op Rwanda se geskiedenis toe en identifiseer vyf epogge van institusionele verandering: (i) die “Goue Era” (voor-geskiedenis tot 1894); (ii) koloniale periode (1894-1961); (iii) Eerste Republiek (1961-1973); (iv) Tweede Republiek (1973-1994); en (v) die periode na die volksmoord (1994 en daarna). Die mees onlangse epog volg op die volksmoord in 1994 wat veroorsaak is deur ʼn herhalende tema in die land se geskiedenis, naamlik etniese spanning tussen die Hutu en Tutsi. Sedertdien het Rwanda een van die mees indrukwekkende periodes van heropbou ná konflik in menseheugenis beleef. Een van Rwanda se prestasies was om deur die Wêreldbank se “Doing Business”-projek benoem te word as die land wat die afgelope anderhalfdekade die meeste verbeterings aan die sakeklimaat aangebring het. Hierdie proefskrif gebruik “Doing Business”-statistiek om besigheidsvriendelike institusionele verandering van 2002 tot 2013 te kwantifiseer. Dié keuse berus op die verwantskappe tussen die statistiek wat deur die “Doing Business”-projek ingesamel word en kernkonsepte binne die NIE, sowel as die teoretiese grondslae van die “Doing Business”-projek. Hierdie proefskrif gebruik “fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis” (fsQCA), ʼn versamelingsteoretiese tegniek wat ruimte vir ekwifinaliteit (verskeie roetes tot die uitkoms) laat, om die determinante van besigheidsvriendelike institusionele verandering in Rwanda en in Sub-Sahara Afrika in die algemeen te ontleed. Die ontleding poog om sodanige institusionele verandering te verklaar aan die hand van kombinasies van vyf oorsaaklike elemente” transaksionele leierskap, die risiko van staatsineenstorting, die toestand van die sakeklimaat voor die afskop van die hervormings, en die demokratiese en outokratiese eienskappe van die regering. Die uitslae vir Rwanda dui aan dat institusionele verandering vanaf 2002 tot 2013 deur effektiewe transaksionele leierskap, ‘n regeringstyl met min demokratiese en heelparty outokratiese elemente, asook ‘n reeds-ondersteunende sakeklimaat aan die begin van die periode beïnvloed is. Die land se leiers het strukture vir dialoog en skakeling met belanghebbendes buite die regerende party en vir koördinering van handelinge deur verskillende regeringsdepartemente en ander belanghebbendes geskep. Hulle het ook ‘n omgewing tot stand gebring waarin belanghebbendes tot die implementering van projekte en beleid verbind is. Nsanzabaganwa (2012) se “connectedness model” verduidelik die beleidmakingsprosesse agter institusionele verandering in Rwanda. Dit beskryf beleidmaking in die land as ‘n produk van die interaksie tussen die politikus, beleidskenner, privaatsektor en veranderingsbestuurder. Politieke wetenskaplikes weet nou dat outokrasieë dikwels dieselfde ekonomiese instellings skep wat akademici tevore as tipiese kenmerke van ‘n demokratiese bestel beskou het. Die naasbestaan van ʼn inklusiewe proses van beleidmaking en ʼn relatief outokratiese politieke bestel stem met dié verskynsel ooreen. Hierdie proefskrif fokus sterk op verandering in formele instellings, maar plaas ook klem op die rol van informele instellings (soos vertroue) in veranderingsprosesse. Die vernaamste voorstel vir toekomstige navorsing wat uit hierdie proefskrif voortspruit, is dat ontledings van institusionele verandering meer aandag aan die wisselwerking tussen leierskap en informele instellings moet gee. Moeilike metingsprobleme sal egter eers oorkom moet word voor informele instellings groter prominensie in sulke ontledings kan verkry.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/106170
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