Financial cost-benefit analysis for the establishment of areas free from and areas of low pest prevalence of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) in South Africa

Van Zyl, Jo Bridget (2019-04)

Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2019.

Thesis

ENGLISH SUMMARY : International food trade is critical for a country’s economy and for facilitating food security across the globe, but there are risks associated with food trade. These risks include the spread of invasive pest species. Bactrocera dorsalis was introduced into Africa through food trade, after which it spread to most of sub-Saharan Africa. Bactrocera dorsalis was declared present in the Northern Vhembe district of Limpopo in 2013, and is currently present in some areas in six of the nine provinces of South Africa. Bactrocera dorsalis is considered a fruit fly of economic importance as it accounts for major economic losses such as crop damages, and also loss of export markets due to being a quarantine pest in many countries. Bactrocera dorsalis therefore needs to be managed, and current areas which are pest free, must be maintained as such. Prior to a project being embarked on, it should be determined if the project will yield positive results. A financial cost-benefit analysis is used to calculate whether it will be feasible for South Africa to establish or keep certain areas free from or under low prevalence Bactrocera dorsalis. The status quo in South Africa is used as a baseline to establish if the current situation in South Africa can be feasibly maintained, and whether the spread of Bactrocera dorsalis to the rest of South Africa can be prevented. The financial cost-benefit analysis takes all costs and benefits related to the project in question, into account. A financial cost-benefit analysis has been conducted, and input from stakeholders was used to determine the different categories included in the analysis. The outcome, given the assumptions of the financial cost-benefit analysis, is positive. The net present value (NPV) and the cost-benefit ratio, provided as an outcome of the financial cost-benefit analysis, were used to interpret and determine the feasibility of the project. Both the net present value and cost-benefit ratio results are positive. The positive net present value and cost benefit ratio indicate that it will be feasible to maintain the current situation concerning Bactrocera dorsalis in South Africa. This project serves to indicate factors which should be included when a more comprehensive analysis is needed.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Internasionale voedselhandel is krities vir ‘n land se ekonomie en vir die fasilitering van voedsel sekuriteit reg oor die wêreld, maar daar is risiko’s verbonde aan voedselhandel. Risko’s sluit die verspreiding van indringerspesies in. Die Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) vrugtevlieg is deur middel van handel van voedsel produkte vrygestel in Afrika, waarna dit versprei het na die grootste gedeelte van sub-Sahara Afrika. Bactrocera dorsalis is in 2013 verklaar as teenwoordig in die Noorde van die Vhembe distrik van Limpopo in Suid Afrika, huidiglik is Bactrocera dorsalis teenwoordig in ses van die nege provinsies van Suid-Afrika. Bactrocera dorsalis word as ‘n vrugtevlieg van ekonomiese belang beskou, omdat dit vir groot ekonomiese verliese verantwoordelik is, verliese sluit in die beskadiging van oeste en die verlies aan uitvoer markte, aangesien Bactrocera dorsalis ‘n kwarantyn pes in baie lande is. Om hierdie rede moet Bactrocera dorsalis bestuur word en die huidige areas wat as pesvry geklassifiseer is, moet so behou word. Voordat ‘n projek begin is dit nodig om te bepaal of die projek positiewe resultate sal lewer. ‘n Finansiële koste-voordeel-analise is gebruik om te bepaal of dit vir Suid-Afrika winsgewend sal wees om sekere areas vry of areas met lae pes tellings van Bactrocera dorsalis sal hou. Die status quo situasie in Suid-Afrika word gebruik as ‘n basislyn om vas te stel of dit winsgewend is om die huidige situasie te behou en om vas te stel of die verspreiding van Bactrocera dorsalis na die res van Suid-Africa kan verhoed word. Die finansiële koste-voordeel-analise neem al die verwante kostes en voordele van die projek in ag. ‘n Finansiële koste-voordeel-analise is gedoen en insette van belanghebbendes is gebruik om die verskillende kategorieë vas te stel wat gebruik is in die analise. Die uitkoms van die analise, inaggenome die aannames van die finansiële koste-voordeel-analise, is positief. Die huidige netto waarde en die koste-voordeel-verhouding wat deur die gebruik van die analise as uitkoms gegee is, word gebruik om die resultaat te interpreteer en die winsgewendheid van die projek te bepaal. Beide die huidige netto waarde en die koste-voordeel-verhouding se resultate was positief. Die positiewe uitkoms van die huidige netto waarde en die koste-voordeel-verhouding dui daarop dat dit winsgewend is om die huidige situasie in Suid-Afrika, rakende Bactrocera dorsalis te onderhou. Hierdie projek dui ook ander faktore aan wat in ‘n meer samehangende analise gebruik en in ag geneem moet word.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/105896
This item appears in the following collections: