Dynamic adjustment of size profiles

Messina, Chesme Tessa (2019-04)

Thesis (MCom)--Stellenbosch University, 2019.

Thesis

ENGLISH SUMMARY : The effect of dynamic size profile adjustments on total sales are analysed for a prominent South African fashion retailer. Stock arriving at the distribution centre (DC) from factories are allocated to stores via a push system assuming demand is deterministic, where the retailer finalises allocation decisions on a central level for all stores. Paramount to store allocation decisions are size profiles, which partition a fixed quantity of company stock available at the DC into smaller, ideal size-mix allocation* for each store. The retailer derives size profiles from historical sales data, clustering stores with similar historic sales properties together. Each cluster receives a size profile reflective of the expected spread of sales amongst sizes, expressed as a percentage per size. Currently, size profiles remain static throughout the season, translating into inefficient stock allocations based on expected sales identified (only) from historic sales data. In an attempt to improve stock allocation efficiency, most recent sales data made available are incorporated into the decision making process when finalising allocations by dynamically adjusting size profiles throughout the season. To quantify the effect of dynamic size profile adjustments, sales of a prominent South African fashion retailer are simulated for a season. Verification and validation of simulation model, built to incorporate dynamic size profile adjustments concludes sales output is a sufficiently close representation of the real system. The simulation model is applied to two summer and two winter products, resulting in four simulation models. Analysis of product sales simulation with dynamic size profile adjustment, record a combined average increase in total sales of 3.11% for summer products and 2.72% for winter products, compared to static size profile sales. Fundamental to the success of dynamic size profile adjustments is the choice of an appropriate weighting parameter, "Y. Sensitivity analysis on value variation of was performed for each of the four simulation models. The main finding is that a chosen weighting parameter value is dataset specific and retaining historical sales data is important in the dynamic adjustment of size profiles.

AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING : Die effek van 'n dinamiese aanpassing van grootte-profiele op die totale verkope van 'n bekende Suid-Afrikaanse kleinhandelaar word ondersoek. Vooraad wat vanaf fabrieke by die distribusiesentrum aankom, word aan winkels toegeken volgens 'n sentrale stootstelsel, wearin nangeneem word dat die aanvraag konstant en deterministies is. In hierdie toekenningsbesluite is die grootte- profiel belangrik om 'n vaste hoeveelheid voorraad op te deel vir al die winkels volgens daardie winkel se ideale grootte-mengsel. Die kleinhandelaar bepnal grootte-profiele deur winkels vol- gens historiese verkope saam te groepeer. Elke groep winkels kry dan 'n grootte-profiel wat die verwagte verspreiding van verkope oor die verskillende groottes weerspieël tans bly hierdie grootte-profiele staties gedurende 'n seisoen, wat kan lei tot swak toekenningsbesluite. In 'n poging om die voorraadtoekenning te verbeter, word die jongste beskikbare verkoopsdata gebruik in die besluitnemingsproses deur die grootte-profiele dinamies aan te pas. 'n Simulasie wat die verkope vir 'n seisoen simuleer, is geprogrammeer om die effek van hierdie dinamiese aanpassing te kwantifiseer. Die simulasiemodel is geverifieer en gewalideer met die gevolgtrekking dat die gesimuleerde stelsel die werklike stelsel bevredigend naboots. Die simulasiemodel word toegepas op twee winter- en twee somerprodukte wat resultate vir Vier verskillende simulasies verskaf. 'n Ontleding van die resultate toon 'n gekombineerde toename in verkope van 3.11% vir die somerprodukte en 2.72% vir winterprodukte teenoor die statiese grootte-profiele. Die sukses van die dinamiese aanpassing berus op 'n gepaste keuse van die wegingsparameter, 7. Sensitiwiteitsanalise op die waarde van toon dat die beste waarde van -r afhanklik is van die onderliggende datastel en dat die behoud van historiese verkope data belangrik is in die dinamiese aanpassing van grootte-profiele.

Please refer to this item in SUNScholar by using the following persistent URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/105843
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