System dynamics simulation of income distribution and electric vehicle diffusion for electricity planning in South Africa
Date
2018-12
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University
Abstract
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The electricity generation industry has developed a symbiotic interdependence with the
social, environmental, economic and political ecologies in the country, resulting in
divergent complexities, which require non-linear model-based planning methodologies.
Some of the determinants influencing the power industry include technologies, such as
battery electric vehicles (BEVs), which have gained prominence as a possible option to
support South Africa’s climate change commitments. This study used an adapted
system dynamics modelling process to determine the provincial affordability of BEVs in
South Africa so that amended regional forecasts of BEVs could be established to plan
for charging infrastructure, environmental impacts in the energy and transport sectors,
as well as changes in electricity consumption. Results from the Electricity Strategic
Battery Electric Vehicle (E-StratBEV) simulator indicate that aligning BEV market
penetration with the current consumer behaviour within deciles on vehicle expenditure,
results in significantly lower than the expected market penetration. This means that by
2040, a low growth GDP-based target of 233,700 BEVs could adjust to 44,155 BEVs,
while a high growth scenario of 2,389,950 BEVs (based on South Africa’s commitment
in the Paris Agreement) could adjust to 451,736 BEVs. The inclusion of BEV drivers, such as reduced purchase price, increased charging infrastructure, reduced “range
anxiety”, and improved reputation effect, add a further cumulative total of 270 GWh
from 2019 until 2040 for the low growth scenario, and an additional 2,764 GWh for the
high growth scenario, to the residential electricity consumption. From 2019 to 2040, a
renewables heavy supply mix results in a 7% cumulative decrease in CO2 emissions in
the transport sector; however, with a coal heavy supply mix, no gains in carbon
emission reduction is achieved. The adapted system dynamics modelling process
allowed for the successful development and implementation of the E-StratBEV,
however, the process can be further enhanced by establishing preliminary complexity
criteria to ensure a project requires this method before commencement.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Geen opsomming beskikbaar
Description
Thesis (PhD)--Stellenbosch University, 2018.
Keywords
Electric vehicles -- Batteries, Electricity in transportation, Electric vehicle supply equipment, Electric power production, Electric vehicles -- South Africa, UCTD