Doctoral Degrees (School of Public Leadership)

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Browsing Doctoral Degrees (School of Public Leadership) by Subject "Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic policy"

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    Impact of commodity markets on economic development in Sub-Saharan Africa
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2007-12) Ocran, Matthew Kofi; Biekpe, Nicholas; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. School of Public Management and Planning.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Commodity issues have assumed renewed importance in debates about the attainment of the United Nation’s Millennium Development Goals for Sub-Saharan Africa and objectives of the New Partnership for Africa’s Development. For instance thirty-four countries in Africa depend on up to three commodities for more than half of their foreign exchange earnings. Despite the importance of commodity markets to economic development on the continent commodity-related research has not attracted the needed attention. The study considered eighteen primary commodities exported by most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. The commodities were drawn from metals, agricultural raw materials, food and energy sub-groups. This dissertation presents results of research work underlying six stand-alone essays focusing on the relationship between commodities and various aspects of economic performance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Whilst three of the six essays dwelt on issues affecting commodities of interest to most African countries the others considered particular commodity markets in a selected number of countries. First the relationship between commodity markets and economic growth is studied. The second essay examined trends and volatility in Sub-Saharan Africa’s key commodity prices over the past four decades. Role of commodity prices in macroeconomic policy in South Africa is also investigated using a new research approach. The fourth essay estimated the supply response of a number of tradable and non-tradable agricultural commodities in Ghana. In the fifth essay a range of volatility forecasting models were evaluated using eighteen commodity spot prices. The last essay examined the interaction between changes in commodity prices, money supply, inflation and the real exchange rate in Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa. The findings of the study indicate that a negative relationship exist between extent of primary commodity dependence and economic growth. The study also revealed that volatility levels have not changed for nine out of the eighteen commodities studied however, changes were observed in the other nine. Another key finding of the study was that there is merit in using gold and metal prices as variables in forming monetary policy in South Africa. It was also observed that random walk and autoregressive models consistently outperform more complex models in forecasting volatility in commodity spot prices. Results of the supply response study suggest that even though producers usually respond to price incentives, structural features of domestic agricultural commodity markets in Ghana may have hindered the conversion of improved incentives to higher agricultural growth. Results of the last paper indicate that in Ghana commodity price increases impact money supply growth and inflation whilst in Nigeria the effects of crude oil price increases produces higher inflation and appreciation of the real exchange. In the case of South Africa effects of gold export booms were transmitted through changes in money supply, inflation and real appreciation of the domestic currency. The results of the study have implications for both decision makers in business and government.