Browsing by Author "Van Heerden, Kyle"

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    A simulation model of an Ebola epidemic to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2020-03) Van Heerden, Kyle; Potgieter, Linke; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Logistics. Logistics.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT : A significant increase in the number of lives lost and material damages were seen in the past decade caused by natural and man-made disasters. The complex and dynamic environment of a disaster response effort demands agility and adaptability which could only be achieved with adequate preparation and strategic planning. In this project, simulation modelling is applied to the Ebola epidemic disaster of late 2014 in Sierra Leone to study the e ectiveness of intervention strategies. Given financial and logistical constraints the most effective intervention strategy or combination of strategies should be implemented to minimise the number of infected individuals at a minimum cost. The impact of four intervention strategies used during the epidemic namely, contact tracing, quarantine, safe burials, and vaccination, are evaluated. A metapopulation modelling approach is followed whereby a group of spatially separated populations interact through migrating individuals. A compartmental model consisting of a set of difference equations is used to model the spread of Ebola within each local population. A proportion of individuals in each local population move to other local populations. This spatial representation is used to gain better insight on how spatial interaction of individuals in neighbouring regions in a country affect the efficiency of intervention strategies. With the ability to test various intervention strategies, an effective combination of intervention strategies may be found that has the greatest impact on the spread of the disease. The results may impact the design and implementation of future intervention strategies.