Browsing by Author "Thuiller, Wilfried"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Life-history traits evolved jointly with climatic niche and disturbance regime in the genus leucadendron (proteaceae)
    (University of Chicago Press, 2017-12-05) Tonnabel, Jeanne; Schurr, Frank M.; Boucher, Florian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Renaud, Julien; Douzery, Emmanuel J. P.; Ronce, Ophelie
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Organisms have evolved a diversity of life-history strategies to cope with variation in their environment. Persistence as adults and/or seeds across recruitment events allows species to dampen the effects of environmental fluctuations. The evolution of life cycles with overlapping generations should thus permit the colonization of environments with uncertain recruitment. We tested this hypothesis in Leucadendron (Proteaceae), a genus with high functional diversity native to fire-prone habitats in the South African fynbos. We analyzed the joint evolution of life-history traits (adult survival and seed-bank strategies) and ecological niches (climate and fire regime), using comparative methods and accounting for various sources of uncertainty. In the fynbos, species with canopy seed banks that are unable to survive fire as adults display nonoverlapping generations. In contrast, resprouters with an underground seed bank may be less threatened by extreme climatic events and fire intervals, given their iteroparity and long-lasting seed bank. Life cycles with nonoverlapping generations indeed jointly evolved with niches with less exposure to frost but not with those with less exposure to drought. Canopy seed banks jointly evolved with niches with more predictable fire return, compared to underground seed banks. The evolution of extraordinary functional diversity among fynbos plants thus reflects, at least in part, the diversity of both climates and fire regimes in this region.
  • No Thumbnail Available
    Item
    Modelling the winter distribution of a rare and endangered migrant, the Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola
    (Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2007-04) Walther, Bruno A.; Schaffer, Norbert; Van Niekerk, Adriaan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Chown, Steven L.; 0000-0002-5631-0206
    The Aquatic Warbler Acrocephalus paludicola is one of the most threatened Western Palearctic passerine species, classified as globally Vulnerable. With its breeding grounds relatively secure, a clear need remains for the monitoring and protection of the migration and wintering grounds of this rare and endangered migrant. Recent research has shown that the Aquatic Warbler migrates through northwest Africa in autumn and spring. The wintering grounds are apparently limited to wetlands of sub-Saharan West Africa, with records from only about 20 localities in Mauritania, Mali, Senegal and Ghana. Given the lack of knowledge of its whereabouts, we decided to use the available data to predict the wintering distribution of the Aquatic Warbler with the help of Geographic Information Systems (GIS). We used a novel approach to model the distribution of rarely recorded species, which is based on a combination of presence-only and presence–absence modelling techniques. Using the program BIOMOD, we thus generated four progressively more conservative predictions of where the Aquatic Warbler overwinters in Africa. Whereas the most permissive model predicts the Aquatic Warbler to be found in a latitudinal band stretching from the Senegal river delta all the way to the Red Sea coast, the most restrictive model suggests a much smaller area concentrated within the regions around the Senegal river delta in northern Senegal and southern Mauritania and around the Niger inundation zone in southern Mali and eastern Burkina Faso. Such model predictions may be useful guidelines to focus further field research on the Aquatic Warbler. Given the excellent model predictions in this study, this novel technique may prove useful to model the distribution of other rare and endangered species, thus providing a means to guide future survey efforts.