Browsing by Author "Steyn-Bruwer, B. W."
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- ItemPredicting financial distress of companies listed on the JSE : a comparison of techniques(AOSIS, 2009) Muller, G. H.; Steyn-Bruwer, B. W.; Hamman, W. D.In 2006, Steyn-Bruwer and Hamman highlighted several deficiencies in previous research which investigated the prediction of corporate failure (or financial distress) of companies. In their research, Steyn-Bruwer and Hamman made use of the population of companies for the period under review and not only a sample of bankrupt versus successful companies. Here the sample of bankrupt versus successful companies is considered as two extremes on the continuum of financial condition, while the population is considered as the entire continuum of financial condition. The main objective of this research, which was based on the above-mentioned authors' work, was to test whether some modelling techniques would in fact provide better prediction accuracies than other modelling techniques. The different modelling techniques considered were: Multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), Recursive partitioning (RP), Logit analysis (LA) and Neural networks (NN). From the literature survey it was evident that existing literature did not readily consider the number of Type I and Type II errors made. As such, this study introduces a novel concept (not seen in other research) called the "Normalised Cost of Failure" (NCF) which takes cognisance of the fact that a Type I error typically costs 20 to 38 times that of a Type II error. In terms of the main research objective, the results show that different analysis techniques definitely produce different predictive accuracies. Here, the MDA and RP techniques correctly predict the most "failed" companies, and consequently have the lowest NCF; while the LA and NN techniques provide the best overall predictive accuracy.
- ItemShare repurchases : which number of shares should be used by JSE-listed companies when publishing market capitalisation in annual reports?(AOSIS, 2008) Bester, P. G.; Hamman, W. D.; Brummer, L. M.; Wesson, N.; Steyn-Bruwer, B. W.The legalisation of share repurchases in South Africa since July 1999 introduced additional complexity to financial reporting. The repurchasing of shares by subsidiaries or share trusts has led to a new concept: the number of company shares differs from the number of group shares. Ratios like earnings per share and headline earnings per share are governed by accounting standards and circulars, and prescribe the use of the (weighted) number of group shares. No guidance exists on the calculation of market capitalisation. This article aims to determine the methods used by companies listed on the JSE Securities Exchange South Africa (JSE) to calculate their number of shares when publishing market capitalisation. It was found that only about 25% of companies participating in share repurchases and publishing market capitalisation in their annual reports calculated market capitalisation based on the number of group shares. About 75% of the companies did not calculate their market capitalisation based on the number of group shares (i.e. they omitted to deduct subsidiary repurchases and/or trust consolidations in their calculation of the number of shares). It was also found that the JSE, when compiling the Top 40 index, calculates market capitalisation based on the number of company shares (i.e. ignoring subsidiary repurchases and trust consolidations). Accounting guidance is needed on the reporting of market capitalisation to ensure that this aspect is not overstated by the reporting entities.
- ItemWhat is the best way to predict financial distress of companies(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, University of Stellenbosch Business School, 2012-12) Muller, G. H.; Steyn-Bruwer, B. W.; Hamman, W. D.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Predicting distress is essential for investors or lending institutions who wish to protect their financial investments. Which predictive techniques work best?