Browsing by Author "Smith, Luke"
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- ItemSo, why can’t Iran have the bomb?(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-12) Smith, Luke; Fourie, Pieter Paul; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In May of 2018, The USA withdrew from the ground-breaking Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) which was designed to stagnate Iran’s rate of nuclear development and push back its nuclear breakout. In January of 2020, tensions between the USA and Iran reached a tipping point following the US assassination of Iranian Lieutenant-General Qasem Soleimani. Iran’s nuclear development continues to be the source of major international concern as the USA and notable institutions such as the United Nation Security Council make efforts to isolate the Islamic Republic in order to forcibly restrict its nuclear development. Iran’s noteworthy isolation under economic sanctions has had detrimental effects on its economy, political and social well-being and has further strained its relationship with the international community. The proliferation of nuclear weapons throughout the international system has been a visible trend since the 1940s. However, not all states have been allowed to freely develop their own nuclear capacity. The Arms Control Association (2019) states that there are an estimated 14,000 nuclear warheads globally and that more than 90% of them are divided between only two major global powers, the USA and Russia. However, if we consider the concerns and tensions that have arisen from the nuclear development of states such as Iran, it is clear that institutions such as the UNSC and states such as the USA have made considerable efforts to maintain the current nuclear imbalance within the international system. Ultimately, the research problem for this study is best understood as understanding the systematic failure of nuclear non-proliferation initiatives in restricting nuclear development and preventing regional and global instability that stem from access to nuclear weapons. This study ultimately addresses the research problem by answering one primary research question: So, why can’t Iran have the bomb? In order to answer the primary research question, this study challenges the efficiency and sustainability of contemporary efforts to forcibly restrict nuclear development. It further considers an interpretation of structural realism that supports the stabilising effects of nuclear power balancing and applies it to the case of Iran. It has been argued that Iran’s nuclear development and breakout may be a catalyst for greater regional instability. However, focusing on the seminal work of Kenneth Waltz, this study views Iran through a lens of structurally defensive realism and presents an argument in which Iran’s nuclear breakout balances regional power and threats, in turn stabilising the region. In providing a theoretical solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis, this study acknowledges the role of realist theory in accounting for the past, as well as its limitations in predicting the future.