Browsing by Author "Simpson, Zane P."
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- ItemCalculation of freight externality costs for South Africa(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Swarts, Stefaan; King, David; Simpson, Zane P.; Havenga, Jan H.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.The purpose of this study is to quantify the marginal external costs associated with freight transport in South Africa. Six cost elements are included as externality cost items, namely, costs related to accidents, emissions, roadway land availability, policing, noise and congestion. Inputs in the calculations were a gravity-oriented freight flow model, a road transport cost model, actual transport costs for other modes, a warehousing cost survey, an inventory delay calculation and various national sources of information such as accident statistics and government budgets. Estimation techniques resulted in advances for externality cost measurement in South Africa. The quantification of the cost elements will be used to update the South African Freight Demand Model. The results show that the cost of transportation would have been 20% more if external factors were taken into account. The marginal rates of externalities can be used to develop scenarios based on alternative choices for South Africa’s freight transport infrastructure configuration.
- ItemContainer terminal spatial planning : a 2041 paradigm for the Western Cape Province in South Africa(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Havenga, Jan H.; King, David; Simpson, Zane P.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, AnnekeThis paper investigates the suitable location for an intermodal inland container terminal (IICT) in the city of Cape Town. A container market segmentation approach is used to project growth for container volumes over a 30-year period for all origin and destination pairings on a geographical district level in an identified catchment area. The segmentation guides the decision on what type of facility is necessary to fulfil capacity requirements in the catchment area and will be used to determine the maximum space requirements for a future IICT. Alternative sites are ranked from most suitable to least suitable using multi-criteria analysis, and preferred locations are identified. Currently, South Africa’s freight movement is dominated by the road sector. Heavy road congestion is thus prevalent at the Cape Town Container Terminal (CTCT). The paper proposes three possible alternative sites for an IICT that will focus on a hub-and-spoke system of transporting freight.
- ItemExtending freight flow modelling to Sub-Saharan Africa to inform infrastructure investments : trade data issues(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; King, David; Lanz, E. J.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, AnnekeThis paper highlights the first attempt by researchers at Stellenbosch University to model freight flows between and for 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model will be informed by and linked to the South African surface Freight Demand Model (FDM) given these dimensions. By analysing and collating available datasets and developing a freight flow model, a better understanding of freight movements between countries can be obtained and then used for long-term planning efforts. A simple methodology is envisaged that will entail a high-level corridor classification that links a major district in the country with a similar district in another country. Existing trade data will be used to corroborate new base-year economic demand and supply volumetric data that will be generated from social accounting matrices for each country. The trade data will also provide initial flow dynamics between countries that will be refined according to the new volumes. The model can then generate commodity-level corridor flows between SSA countries, and between SSA countries and the rest of the world, as well as intra-country rural and metropolitan flows, using a gravity-based modelling approach. This article outlines efforts to harmonise trade data between the 17 countries identified, as well as between these countries and the rest of the world as a first step towards developing a freight demand model for sub-Saharan Africa.
- ItemA heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa(AOSIS, 2018) Havenga, Jan H.; Le Roux, Phillippus P. T.; Simpson, Zane P.Purpose: To develop and apply a methodology to calculate the heavy goods vehicle fleet required to meet South Africa’s projected road freight transport demand within the context of total surface freight transport demand. Methodology: Total freight flows are projected through the gravity modelling of a geographically disaggregated input–output model. Three modal shift scenarios, defined over a 15-year forecast period, combined with road efficiency improvements, inform the heavy goods vehicle fleet for different vehicle types to serve the estimated future road freight transport demand. Findings: The largest portion of South Africa’s high and growing transport demand will remain on long-distance road corridors. The impact can be moderated through the concurrent introduction of domestic intermodal solutions, performance-based standards in road freight transport and improved vehicle utilisation. This presupposes the prioritisation of collaborative initiatives between government, freight owners and logistics service providers. Research limitations: (1) The impact of short-distance urban movements on fleet numbers is not included yet. (2) Seasonality, which negatively influences bi-directional flows, is not taken into account owing to the annual nature of the macroeconomic data. (3) The methodology can be applied to other countries; the input data are however country-specific and findings can therefore not be generalised. (4) The future possibility of a reduction in absolute transport demand through, for example, reshoring have not been modelled yet. Practical implications: Provides impetus for the implementation of domestic intermodal solutions and road freight performance-based standards to mitigate the impact of growing freight transport demand. Societal implications: More efficient freight transport solutions will reduce national logistics costs and freight-related externalities. Originality: Develops a methodology for forecasting the heavy goods vehicle fleet within the context of total freight transport to inform government policy and industry actions.
- ItemA logistics barometer for South Africa : towards sustainable freight mobility(AOSIS Publishing, 2016) Havenga, Jan H.; De Bod, Anneke; Simpson, Zane P.; Viljoen, Nadia; King, DavidENGLISH SUMMARY : Background: South Africa has a disproportionately high freight transport demand owing to industrial development far from ports, low domestic beneficiation and improper modal use. Historical freight transport policy supported primary economic development, failing to preempt the changing economic structure and the resulting freight transport needs, resulting in excessive transport costs and externalities. Objectives: To share the macroeconomic freight transport challenges revealed by South Africa’s Logistics Barometer, and to identify key interventions to address these. Method: Freight flows are modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 83 commodity groupings and 372 geographical areas, culminating in a 30-year forecast at 5-year intervals for three scenarios, followed by distance-decay gravity modelling to determine freight flows. Logistics costs are calculated by relating these flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistic functions. Results: Long-distance transport remains the largest general freight typology and is, due to inefficient macro logistics design, extremely costly, both in terms of intrinsic and extrinsic costs. Conclusion: South Africa’s freight task will grow 2.5-fold by 2043. Logistics and externality costs are already untenable at current levels. The development of domestic intermodal solutions will support the drive towards sustainable freight mobility.
- ItemMacro-logistics trends : indications for a more sustainable economy(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2013-07) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; De Bod, AnnekeThe North American and South African logistics cost calculation-time series are the two longest-running statistical series available worldwide. These calculations indicate that transportation’s contribution to logistics costs is rising, as the key cost driver (oil price) is increasing exponentially. This is exacerbated by volatile oil prices and the inclusion of externality charges to reduce the logistics environmental footprint. Therefore, it is necessary to consider a new paradigm where material logistics requirements are reduced through localisation and consumption reduction. This, in turn, implies the consideration of new indicators for the future measurement of logistics costs. Because this article asks questions about the suitability of GDP as the primary (and often only) measurement of economic output, new measurements are required. If this position changes, the comparison of logistics costs with GDP alone will become questionable.
- ItemProvincial logistics costs in South Africas Western Cape province : microcosm of national freight logistics challenges(AOSIS Publishing, 2015-09) Havenga, Jan H.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, Anneke; Simpson, Zane P.Background: Logistics costs are most commonly measured on a national level. An understanding of the provincial logistics landscape can add significant value both to provincial and national policy interventions; such measurements are however scarce. South Africa’s national freight logistics survey points to significant challenges in the structure of the freight transport market, most importantly the dominance of road freight transport on dense, longdistance corridors. The Cape Town-Gauteng corridor is the main economic artery linking the Western Cape province to the rest of the country. Objectives: The provincial government commissioned this research to develop an understanding of the province’s contribution to the national logistics challenges in order to alleviate both provincial and national logistics challenges. Results: The research results provide a distinct description of the key action required – to provide an intermodal solution for the dense flows of fast-moving consumer goods on the Cape Town-Gauteng corridor in order to reduce the significant transport and externality costs related to these flows and reduce exposure to exogenous cost drivers. Conclusion: Collaborative research between government and private industry into appropriate intermodal technologies must be prioritised within the ambit of South Africa’s socioeconomic environment. This shift can be further supported through the internalisation of road transport externalities to enable a total cost decision between modes, as well as through appropriate regulation of the freight transport industry.
- ItemRevitalisation of branch lines in South Africa : a long-term view for sustainability(AOSIS Publishing, 2010-11-30) Simpson, Zane P.; Havenga, Jan H.South Africa’s national railway management is considering the further closing of a number of branch lines due to profitability pressures from stakeholders. This paper cautions against a myopic approach to such closures. Traditionally these decisions are driven by short-term profit motives realised through resulting core line densification. The research presented in this paper demonstrates the importance of 1) taking cognisance of potential branch lines flows; 2) considering freight transport externalities and road usage costs; and 3) understanding long-term demand, in informing closure decisions. The research results reveal considerable volume opportunities for branch lines which, if captured, will significantly reduce both the direct transport costs for this traffic as well as externality charges for the economy. This will therefore not only render rural economies more competitive but also enable the provision of more sustainable freight transport to these communities. The research approach will be of value to researchers in both developed and developing economies to inform the continuous debate regarding rail rationalisation and rail revival.
- ItemSouth Africa's domestic intermodal imperative(Elsevier, 2012-12) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; De Bod, AnnekeAn integrated alternative to road only or rail only transport does not exist in South Africa for domestic freight. This is in spite of the fact that national freight logistics costs are high, road infrastructure is challenged and concern for the environmental impact of road transport is increasing. These factors have renewed interest in intermodal transport solutions, which are the focus of this article. The question is whether a viable domestic intermodal solution can be found through segmenting freight flows and developing a business case based on these segments. The research confirms that this is possible and the segmentation and subsequent business case is presented. The results demonstrate that building three intermodal terminals to connect the three major industrial hubs – Gauteng, Durban and Cape Town – through an intermodal solution could reduce transport costs (including externalities) for the identified 22.9 million tons of intermodal freight flows on the Cape and the Natal corridors by 64% (including externalities).
- ItemSouth Africa's freight rail reform : a demand-driven perspective(AOSIS Publishing, 2014-11) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; De Bod, AnnekeDuring the 20th century, freight transport in South Africa was employed to attain politicoeconomic ideals, resulting in the overprotection of rail and overregulation of road transport. Increasing industry pressure, combined with the international deregulation trend, led to deregulation in 1988. Myopia resulted in a rail investment hiatus and exponential growth in high-value, long-distance road transport, causing excessive logistics and externality costs for the country. The aim of this study was to propose a freight rail reform agenda based on, (1) lessons from past freight transport policy efforts and (2) the results of freight transport market segmentation driven by models developed over the past two decades. For the study, freight flows were modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 372 origin–destination pairs and 71 commodity groups, followed by distance decay gravitymodelling. Logistics costs were calculated by relating commodity-level freight flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistical functions. The standard management approach of founding strategy development on market-driven segmentation provides a neutral input to steer rail reform discussions in South Africa. Market segmentation points to a dualistic rail reform agenda, enabling both a profit-driven core and a development-driven branch line network. Freight flow insights are steering the policy reform debate towards long-term freight strategy development and optimal freight logistics network design.
- ItemSouth Africa’s rising logistics costs : an uncertain future(AOSIS Publishing, 2014-12) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; De Bod, Anneke; Viljoen, Nadia M.A country’s competitiveness can be severely hampered by an uncompetitive freight logistics system. During the first decade of the 21st century, two in-depth models were developed for South Africa which provide a framework for measuring and improving the country’s freight logistics system – the cost of logistics survey and the freight demand model. These models also allow for the development of scenarios for key identified risks. The objectives of this study were to provide an overview of South Africa’s surface freight transport industry, identify key risks to national competitiveness and suggest ways in which these risks could be mitigated. Freight flows were modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 372 origin–destination pairs and 71 commodity groups, followed by distancedecay gravity-modelling. Logistics costs were calculated by relating commodity-level freight flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistical functions. South Africa’s economy is highly transport intensive. Excessive dependence on road freight transport exacerbates this situation. Furthermore, the road freight transport’s key cost driver is fuel, driven in turn by the oil price. Scenario analysis indicated the risk posed by this rising and volatile input and should provide impetus for policy instruments to reduce transport intensity. As such, this study concluded that a reduction in freight transport intensity is required to reduce exposure to volatile international oil prices.
- ItemSustainable freight transport in South Africa : domestic intermodal solutions(AOSIS OpenJournals, 2011-11) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; Fourie, Pieter F.; De Bod, AnnekeDue to the rapid deregulation of freight transport in South Africa two decades ago, and low historical investment in rail (with resultant poor service delivery), an integrated alternative to road and rail competition was never developed. High national freight logistics costs, significant road infrastructure challenges and environmental impact concerns of a road-dominated freight transport market have, however, fuelled renewed interest in intermodal transport solutions. In this article, a high-level business case for domestic intermodal solutions in South Africa is presented. The results demonstrate that building three intermodal terminals to connect the three major industrial hubs (i.e. Gauteng, Durban and Cape Town) through an intermodal solution could reduce transport costs (including externalities) for the identified 11.5 million tons of intermodalfriendly freight flows on the Cape and Natal corridors by 42% (including externalities).