Browsing by Author "Silber, Jared Ross"
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- ItemConstructing a scenario planning method as a tool for political risk mitigation: The case of Exxon Mobil’s Operations in the South China Sea(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-12) Silber, Jared Ross; Lambrechts, Derica; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Political Science.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Uncertainty and unpredictability within the global political environment has presented considerable political risks for businesses and organisations. An alternative means to explore how these actors can mitigate these political risks is to utilise scenario planning to maximise the actor’s understanding of the uncertainties within the environment, thus enabling the identification of political risks as well as providing insights for potential mitigation strategies. The primary research question for the study is therefore concerned with building a scenario planning method to facilitate political risk mitigation. The question is answered by constructing a method which uses scenario planning to develop an understanding of the key driving forces influencing the environment and construct a scenario matrix from these driving forces for a corporation or organisation. From this understanding of the scenarios and how they may impact the corporation, the first sub-research question, which seeks to address how the scenarios can be utilised to identify political risks and risk mitigation strategies relevant for the corporation, can be answered. The final two research questions test the method’s capacity to facilitate risk mitigation for the oil and gas corporation Exxon Mobil’s operations in the South China Sea from 1 February 2017 to 1 February 2018 by constructing scenarios for the SCS over the timeframe and using the scenarios to identify and mitigate political risks for Exxon Mobil. Utilising the method, the study constructs a scenario matrix for the South China Sea which is used to identify four risk factors relevant for Exxon Mobil. From these risk factors, the information compiled on Exxon Mobil and the scenarios themselves, the study is able to successfully identify four risk mitigation strategies that could be implemented by Exxon Mobil in the SCS. Within the confines of this case study, it was concluded that scenario planning could be used as a tool for political risk mitigation, and that this relationship should be explored further.