Browsing by Author "Sewpersad, Chandani"

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    The development, validation and implementation of a drought stress index for the evaluation of the drought tolerance potential of South African sugarcane
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2013-03) Sewpersad, Chandani; Botes, Willem; Van Heerden, Riekert; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of AgriSciences. Dept. of Genetics.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In the rainfed areas of the South African sugar industry the unpredictability of rainfall is of major concern for producers. Currently, research into the drought tolerance of South African sugarcane varieties is very limited. Knowledge of varietal drought tolerance potential would allow for more informed decision making when it comes to planting a crop that stays in the ground for between five and fifteen years. The aim of this study was to ascertain the drought tolerance potential of commercial sugarcane varieties using historical field trial data by employing statistical modelling. The first step was to establish a reliable methodology of quantifying the level of drought stress, defined through a drought stress index (DSI), employing the sugarcane growth modelling software Canesim. The second step was to use the selected DSI to evaluate and rate the drought tolerance potential of commercial varieties. Of the six DSI’s calculated, the index comprising a ratio of Canesim simulated rainfed yield (representative of a water stressed environment) to Canesim simulated irrigated yield (representative of a water unstressed environment) was the best at quantifyingthe level of trial drought stress. Using three varieties with previously identified drought potential, two intermediate susceptible (IS) and one intermediate (I) variety, this was the only DSI that was able to quantify all the differences between the varieties. Using the selected DSI, two different methodologies were used to evaluate varietal drought tolerance potential: General linear regression and Residual maximum likelihood meta-analysis. The regression method proved to be a better method of varietal rating when using historical field data. The two rainfed regions, coastal and midlands were analyzed separately due to the difference in climatic conditions. Using the regression analysis, with N12 as the observed intermediate reference variety, coastal varieties were rated as being susceptible (N16, N19, N39 and NCO376) or intermediate (N27, N29, N33, N36, N41, N45, N47). Rating of the midlands varieties, with both statistical methods, were unsuccessful.