Browsing by Author "Scheiter, Simon"

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    Large uncertainties in future biome changes in Africa call for flexible climate adaptation strategies
    (John Wiley & Sons Ltd, 2020) Martens, Carola; Hickler, Thomas; Davis-Reddy, Claire; Engelbrecht, Francois; Higgins, Steven I.; Von Maltitz, Graham P.; Midgley, Guy F.; Pfeiffer, Mirjam; Scheiter, Simon
    Anthropogenic climate change is expected to impact ecosystem structure, biodiversity and ecosystem services in Africa profoundly. We used the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), which was originally developed and tested for Africa, to quantify sources of uncertainties in simulated African potential natural vegetation towards the end of the 21st century. We forced the aDGVM with regionally downscaled high-resolution climate scenarios based on an ensemble of six general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Our study assessed the direct effects of climate change and elevated CO2 on vegetation change and its plant-physiological drivers. Total increase in carbon in aboveground biomass in Africa until the end of the century was between 18% to 43% (RCP4.5) and 37% to 61% (RCP8.5) and was associated with woody encroachment into grasslands and increased woody cover in savannas. When direct effects of CO2 on plants were omitted, woody encroachment was muted and carbon in aboveground vegetation changed between –8 to 11% (RCP 4.5) and –22 to –6% (RCP8.5). Simulated biome changes lacked consistent large-scale geographical patterns of change across scenarios. In Ethiopia and the Sahara/Sahel transition zone, the biome changes forecast by the aDGVM were consistent across GCMs and RCPs. Direct effects from elevated CO2 were associated with substantial increases in water use efficiency, primarily driven by photosynthesis enhancement, which may relieve soil moisture limitations to plant productivity. At the ecosystem level, interactions between fire and woody plant demography further promoted woody encroachment. We conclude that substantial future biome changes due to climate and CO2 changes are likely across Africa. Because of the large uncertainties in future projections, adaptation strategies must be highly flexible. Focused research on CO2 effects, and improved model representations of these effects will be necessary to reduce these uncertainties.
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    Linking scales and disciplines : an interdisciplinary cross-scale approach to supporting climate-relevant ecosystem management
    (Springer Nature, 2019-09-05) Berger, Christian; Bieri, Mari; Bradshaw, Karen; Brummer, Christian; Clemen, Thomas; Hickler, Thomas; Kutsch, Werner Leo; Lenfers, Ulfia A.; Martens, Carola; Midgley, Guy F.; Mukwashi, Kanisios; Odipo, Victor; Scheiter, Simon; Schmullius, Christiane; Baade, Jussi; Du Toit, Justin C. O.; Scholes, Robert J.; Smit, Izak P. J.; Stevens, Nicola; Twine, Wayne
    Southern Africa is particularly sensitive to climate change, due to both ecological and socioeconomic factors, with rural land users among the most vulnerable groups. The provision of information to support climate-relevant decision-making requires an understanding of the projected impacts of change and complex feedbacks within the local ecosystems, as well as local demands on ecosystem services. In this paper, we address the limitation of current approaches for developing management relevant socio-ecological information on the projected impacts of climate change and human activities.We emphasise the need for linking disciplines and approaches by expounding the methodology followed in our two consecutive projects. These projects combine disciplines and levels of measurements from the leaf level (ecophysiology) to the local landscape level (flux measurements) and from the local household level (socio-economic surveys) to the regional level (remote sensing), feeding into a variety of models at multiple scales. Interdisciplinary, multi-scaled, and integrated socio-ecological approaches, as proposed here, are needed to compliment reductionist and linear, scalespecific approaches. Decision support systems are used to integrate and communicate the data and models to the local decision-makers.