Browsing by Author "Pienaar, Aliza Pauline"

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    Water resource infrastructure implications of a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province of South Africa: A system dynamics approach
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2016-03) Pienaar, Aliza Pauline; Brent, Alan C.; Musango, J. K.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Industrial Engineering.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: For the Western Cape Province of South Africa to transition to a green economy, sustainable use of water resources is identified as a critical necessity. The green economy transition is seen as the most efficient way to transform the Western Cape Province to the lowest carbon emitting province in South Africa as well as the leading green economy hub on the continent. This research aimed to conceptualize the factors that influence the transition to a green economy in the Western Cape Province regarding the water resources and provide a dynamic model with a modelling technique that will best suit this industry. Ultimately the objective of the research was to utilize results generated by the model to assist policy makers with important decisions regarding the transition to a green economy. Many different role-players in the water industry interact on a non-linear basis which makes it difficult to know what consequences different actions will have. Therefore, the water resource industry was found to be a system with complex interconnections and dependencies. A number of modelling techniques namely; econometrics, optimisation and system dynamics were studied to establish which technique would be best suited for the case of water resources in the Western Cape Province. System dynamics was identified as an appropriate approach to this complex system. Even though this real-life situation is impossible to model to perfection it was concluded that system dynamic modelling will best represent the dynamic complexity that are inherent in green economy transitioning. System Dynamics characteristics, such as its stock and flows and casual loop utilization as well as its ability to model complex real life situations on a relatively low level of complexity proved it to be the appropriate tool. The results generated by the model, for the water supply and demand, showed that the Western Cape Province could possibly experience extreme water shortages in the near future if the current way of living continued. However, it was established that, with sufficient investment and effective management, the demand of the Western Cape Province could be met. After thorough research and careful consideration various interventions were simulated into the model against a climate change scenario. Since the proposed interventions proved to be sufficient to supply water until 2040, the scenario implementing the interventions was identified as a possible strategy for the Western Cape Province. This research ensured a better understanding of the complexities and implications involved in the transition to a green economy for the water resources of the Western Cape Province. Therefore, the research lays the platform for future studies in this field and can hopefully inform the Western Cape Province in its discussions in becoming the lowest carbon emitting province in South Africa and the leading green economy hub on the African continent.