Browsing by Author "Olojede, Christianah Oyindamola"

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    Analysis of partner turnover rate and the lifetime number of sexual partners in Cape Town using generalized linear models
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2017-12) Olojede, Christianah Oyindamola; Delva, Wim; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Science. Department of Mathematical Sciences.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT :A large number of analyses have been carried out to investigate how sexually active people contracted human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) by using common indicators like the number of new sexual partners in a given year and the lifetime number of partners. In this study, the objective is to show that these are not always good indicators because what people report for these two indicators is not accurate nor consistent using generalized linear models such as Poisson and the negative binomial regression models. Generalized linear models are the types of models that allows for the distribution of the response variable to be non-normal. A cross-sectional, sexual behavioural survey was conducted in communities with a high prevalence of HIV in Cape Town, South Africa, in 2011 – 2012. We examined the effects of age and gender on the rate at which sexual partnerships are formed, using count data regression models. The age range of respondents was 16-40 years. The highest number of new sexual relationships formed in a year preceding the survey was 11 and the highest lifetime number of sexual partners was 15. A generalized linear regression model was used to examine the consistency between the reported number of new sexual partners formed in a year preceding the survey and the reported lifetime number of partners. We also assessed the predictive power of these two indicators for the respondent’s HIV status. We found that these indicators are not consistent, and we conclude that they are not good indicators for predicting HIV status.