Browsing by Author "O’Farrell, Patrick J."

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    A continental-scale validation of ecosystem service models
    (Springer, 2019-04-22) Willcock, Simon; Hooftman, Danny A. P.; Balbi, Stefano; Blanchard, Ryan; Dawson, Terence P.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Hickler, Thomas; Hudson, Malcolm D.; Lindeskog, Mats; Martinez-Lopez, Javier; Mulligan, Mark; Reyers, Belinda; Shackleton, Charlie; Sitas, Nadia; Villa, Ferdinando; Watts, Sophie M.; Eigenbrod, Felix; Bullock, James M.
    Faced with environmental degradation, governments worldwide are developing policies to safeguard ecosystem services (ES). Many ES models exist to support these policies, but they are generally poorly validated, especially at large scales, which undermines their credibility. To address this gap, we describe a study of multiple models of five ES, which we validate at an unprecedented scale against 1675 data points across sub-Saharan Africa. We find that potential ES (biophysical supply of carbon and water) are reasonably well predicted by the existing models. These potential ES models can also be used as inputs to new models for realised ES (use of charcoal, firewood, grazing resources and water), by adding information on human population density. We find that increasing model complexity can improve estimates of both potential and realised ES, suggesting that developing more detailed models of ES will be beneficial. Furthermore, in 85% of cases, human population density alone was as good or a better predictor of realised ES than ES models, suggesting that it is demand, rather than supply that is predominantly determining current patterns of ES use. Our study demonstrates the feasibility of ES model validation, even in data-deficient locations such as sub-Saharan Africa. Our work also shows the clear need for more work on the demand side of ES models, and the importance of model validation in providing a stronger base to support policies which seek to achieve sustainable development in support of human well-being.
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    Does vegetation structure influence criminal activity? insights from Cape Town, South Africa
    (International Biogeography Society, 2019) Potgieter, Luke J.; Gaertner, Mirijam; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Richardson, David M.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Dense vegetation, especially thickets of trees or shrubs, has been associated with actual and perceived crime risk in several parts of the world. In some contexts, invasive alien trees and shrubs can create a habitat structure that is very different from that provided by native vegetation. The role of alien and native plant species at different stages of invasion/densification in mediating criminal activity within a managed landscape remains poorly documented and elaborated. Using the South African city of Cape Town (a rapidly growing metropolitan centre within a global biodiversity hotspot) as a case study, we discuss the role of alien, invasive and native vegetation in mediating criminal activity in urban areas, particularly in a developing-country context. We argue that the incidence of crime may not always be determined by the biogeographical status of dominant plants (i.e., whether vegetation is dominated by native, alien, or invasive alien species), but rather on the structure/habitat they provide. A stronger link between crime and vegetation is likely in areas where tree invasions have drastically altered vegetation structure. This paper draws attention to a novel interaction between humans and vegetation and highlights the need for context-specific approaches when managing plant invasions, particularly in urban areas.
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    A fine-scale assessment of the ecosystem service-disservice dichotomy in the context of urban ecosystems affected by alien plant invasions
    (SpringerOpen (part of Springer Nature), 2019) Potgieter, Luke J.; Gaertner, Mirijam; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Richardson, David M.
    Background: Natural resources within and around urban landscapes are under increasing pressure from ongoing urbanisation, and management efforts aimed at ensuring the sustainable provision of ecosystem services (ES) are an important response. Given the limited resources available for assessing urban ES in many cities, practical approaches for integrating ES in decision-making process are needed. Methods: We apply remote sensing techniques (integrating LiDAR data with high-resolution multispectral imagery) and combined these with supplementary spatial data to develop a replicable approach for assessing the role of urban vegetation (including invasive alien plants) in providing ES and ecosystem disservices (EDS). We identify areas denoting potential management trade-offs based on the spatial distribution of ES and EDS using a local-scale case study in the city of Cape Town, South Africa. Situated within a global biodiversity hotspot, Cape Town must contend with widespread invasions of alien plants (especially trees and shrubs) along with complex socio-political challenges. This represents a useful system to examine the challenges in managing ES and EDS in the context of urban plant invasions. Results: Areas of high ES provision (for example carbon sequestration, shade and visual amenity) are characterized by the presence of large trees. However, many of these areas also result in numerous EDS due to invasions of alien trees and shrubs – particularly along rivers, in wetlands and along the urban edge where tall alien trees have established and spread into the natural vegetation (for example increased water consumption, increased fire risk and reduced soil quality). This suggests significant trade-offs regarding the management of species and the ES and EDS they provide. Conclusions: The approach applied here can be used to provide recommendations and to guide city planners and managers to fine-tune management interventions at local scales to maximise the provision of ES.
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    Natural hazards in a changing world : a case for ecosystem-based management
    (PLoS, 2014) Nel, Jeanne L.; Le Maitre, David C.; Nel, Deon C.; Reyers, Belinda; Archibald, Sally; Van Wilgen, Brian W.; Forsyth, Greg G.; Theron, Andre K.; O’Farrell, Patrick J.; Kahinda, Jean-Marc Mwenge; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Kapangaziwiri, Evison; Van Niekerk, Lara; Barwell, Laurie
    Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.