Browsing by Author "Mouton, Daniello"

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    Incorporating short-term operational constraints into long-term generation planning: a Namibian case study
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2023-03) Mouton, Daniello; Bekker, Bernard; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Engineering. Dept. of Electrical and Electronic Engineering.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Namibia possesses an abundance of natural energy resources that have the potential to be used for electricity production. At present, Namibia does not have enough generation capacity to meet its electricity demand. The Namibian Ministry of Mines and Energy thus published the National Integrated Resource Plan in 2016 with a view to meet 100% of its peak load demand and at least 75% of its energy demand through internal or local sources. This study is motivated by three key issues identified in the Namibian generation expansion plan contained in the National Integrated Resource Plan, namely: (1) challenges presented by an increased amount of variable renewable energy present in Namibia’s power system; (2) the sole use of traditional reliability metrics such as Loss of Load Probability and Expected Unsupplied Energy; and (3) the absence of any flexibility assessment of the proposed power system. This study hypothesises that the sole use of conventional reliability metrics in long-term generation expansion planning does not guarantee adequate flexibility in power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy. The flexibility constraints of the power system are also considered with a view to test the hypothesis, which is necessary in the context of the three aforesaid key issues. To this end, this study makes use of emerging generation planning techniques, including Flexibility Assessment Methods, that are capable of ensuring better evaluation of operational reliability. By simulating the Namibian power system within the context of the recently published National Integrated Resource Plan, the hypothesis is proven, and this study concludes that the sole use of conventional reliability metrics in Namibia’s long-term generation expansion plan does not guarantee adequate flexibility in its power systems that has a high share of variable renewable energy.