Browsing by Author "Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen"
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- ItemBurden of congenital rubella syndrome and potential impact of rubella vaccine introduction in South Africa(Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2021-12) Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen; Wiysonge, Charles S.; Suchard, Melinda S.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences. Dept. of Global Health. Epidemiology and Biostatistics.ENGLISH SUMMARY : Background: Introduction of rubella vaccines into public vaccination schedules of all countries is necessary if global rubella elimination is to be achieved. Rubella is targeted for elimination in five World Health Organization (WHO) regions and several international organizations, under the stewardship of the WHO, are working towards this goal. Although there is no rubella elimination or control target for the WHO Africa region, there has been accelerated introduction of rubella vaccination on the continent. South African government is planning to introduce rubella vaccination in its Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) schedule and several epidemiological studies have been conducted to aid preparation of this public health intervention. In the absence of vaccination, rubella is mainly a mild endemic childhood viral illness that is asymptomatic in up to 50% of cases. The most severe consequences of rubella occur when infection occurs during pregnancy. These include miscarriages, stillbirths, intra-uterine growth restriction and congenital rubella syndrome. Rubella vaccines are therefore intended to prevent rubella and associated complications. In South Africa, rubella vaccines are not part of the EPI schedule and there is limited information on the epidemiology of rubella and its complications. In addition, the South African government has to cover the cost of introducing rubella vaccination. Therefore, the aim of this research project was to characterize the epidemiology of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome in South Africa, to assess the potential impact of introducing rubella vaccination in the EPI schedule. Methods: Four different studies were carried out as part of this PhD project: a cross-sectional descriptive study, a sero-survey, a mathematical modelling study and a systematic review. Results: The findings of a newly established CRS surveillance system to provide data on disease trends in the absence of rubella vaccination are presented in the first research component. We provided baseline data on laboratory-confirmed CRS that will enable planning and monitoring of RCV implementation in the South African EPI program. Ninety-eight percent of mothers of infants with CRS were young women 14 to 30 years old, indicating a potential immunity gap in this age group for consideration during introduction of RCV. In the second research component, we present results of testing on residual samples collected from public health facilities to identify immunity gaps in various age groups and genders. The bulk of individuals susceptible to rubella are children under sixteen years old and about 20% of individuals 16 to 49 years old are susceptible to rubella. In multivariable logistic regression, age and province of residence were found to be associated with rubella susceptibility.Webuilt on a previously published mathematical model adapted to the South African context in the third research component and provide insights into optimal scenarios for RCV introduction into the South African public immunization schedule. We simulated a number of scenarios that combined infant vaccination with vaccination of older individuals. Routine vaccination at 12 months of age coupled with vaccination of nine-year-old children was associated with the lowest RCV cost per CRS case averted for a similar percentage CRS reduction. Interestingly, at 80% RCV coverage, all vaccine introduction scenarios could achieve rubella and CRS elimination in South Africa.In the final research component, we systematically reviewed mathematical modelling studies to identify the most effective approach for countries introducing RCV into their public immunization schedules. There were variations in the manner in which individual studies reported outcomes. However, we found that better outcomes are obtained when rubella vaccination is introduced into public vaccination schedules at coverage figures of 80%, as recommended by WHO, or higher. Conclusion: The results from these different studies support the implementation of a strategy involving infant vaccination in combination with vaccination of older individuals. Further research projects are required to provide more detail on the burden of CRS and the economic impact of RCV introduction into the EPI schedule.
- ItemEpidemiology of laboratory-confirmed mumps infections in South Africa, 2012–2017 : a cross-sectional study(BMC (part of Springer Nature), 2020-05-12) Sikhosana, Mpho Lerato; Kuonza, Lazarus; Motaze, Nkengafac VillyenBackground: Data on the burden of mumps in South Africa are limited and the epidemiology of mumps in this setting is not well understood. We present an analysis of mumps data in South Africa from 2012 to 2017. Methods: This cross-sectional study included secondary data on laboratory-confirmed mumps infections from 2012 to 2017, archived at the South African National Health Laboratory Services’ data repository as well as from four private laboratories. Mumps-specific immunoglobulin M (IgM) and/or viral nucleic acid positive results represented acute infections. We used age-specific mid-year population estimates for each study year as denominators when calculating annual cumulative incidence. Seasonality was based on the season that showed a peak in infections. Results: Out of 48,580 records obtained from the public and private sectors, 46,713 (96.2%) were from the private sector. Over the study period, there were 7494 acute infections, 7085 (94.5%) of which were recorded in the private sector. Of these 7494 infections, 3924 (52.4%) occurred in males. The proportion of samples tested that were IgM positive was 18.6% (1058/5682) in 2012, 15% (1016/6790) in 2013, 15.8% (1280/8093) in 2014, 15.5% (1384/8944) in 2015, 13.1% (1260/9629) in 2016 and 15.8% (1496/9442) in 2017. The cumulative incidence rate per 100,000 was highest in children between one and 9 years throughout the study period. The cumulative incidence of infections was highest in the Western Cape, Gauteng and the Northern Cape. Infections peaked in June and November. Conclusion: Laboratory-confirmed mumps infections predominantly occurred in spring, affecting children below 10 years of age and individuals who were male. There were fewer tests performed in the public sector compared to the private sector. Since only laboratory data was analysed our results represent and underestimate of disease burden. Further studies that include clinical data are required to provide better estimates of disease burden in South Africa.
- ItemEstablishment of outbreak thresholds for Hepatitis A in South Africa using laboratory surveillance, 2017–2020(MDPI, 2021) Prabdial-Sing, Nishi; Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen; Manamela, Jack; McCarthy, Kerrigan; Suchard, MelindaAs South Africa transitions from endemic to intermediate endemicity, hepatitis A surveillance needs strengthening to monitor trends in disease incidence and to identify outbreaks. We used passive laboratory-based surveillance data from the National Health Laboratory Services to calculate national hepatitis A incidence and to establish thresholds for outbreaks. Incidence was calculated by age and geographic location. The static threshold used two or three standard deviations (SDs) above the mean hepatitis A incidence in 2017–2019, and a cumulative summation (CuSum2) threshold used three SDs above the mean of the preceding seven months. These thresholds were applied to hepatitis A data for 2020. From 2017 to 2020, the mean incidence of hepatitis A IgM was 4.06/100,000 and ranged from 4.23 to 4.85/100,000 per year. Hepatitis A incidence was highest in the Western Cape province (WCP) (7.00–10.92/100,000 per year). The highest incidence was in the 1–9-year-olds. The incidence of hepatitis A in 2020 exceeded the static threshold in two districts of the WCP: Cape Winelands in January and Overberg district in August. The provincial incidence did not exceed the static and CuSum2 thresholds. District-level analysis using either threshold was sensitive enough to monitor trends and to alert district health authorities, allowing early outbreak responses.
- ItemHepatitis A virus seroprevalence in South Africa - Estimates using routine laboratory data, 2005–2015(Public Library of Science, 2019-06-26) Mazanderani, Ahmad Haeri; Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen; McCarthy, Kerrigan; Suchard, Melinda; Du Plessis, Nicolette MarieIntroduction: South Africa is considered highly endemic for hepatitis A virus (HAV) although few seroprevalence studies have been conducted over the past two decades. The World Health Organization recommends integrating HAV vaccination into national childhood immunization schedules where there is transition from high to intermediate endemicity. As a means of gauging age-specific rates of infection, we report HAV seroprevalence rates among specimens tested for HAV serology within South Africa’s public health sector from 2005–2015. Materials and methods: Hepatitis A serology results (Anti-HAV IgM, IgG and total antibody) from 2005–2015 were extracted from South Africa’s National Health Laboratory Service’s Corporate Data Warehouse (NHLS CDW), the central data repository of all laboratory test-sets within the public health sector. Results were extracted according to test-set, result, date of testing, health facility, name, surname, age, and sex. Anti-HAV IgG results were merged with total antibody results to reflect anti-HAV seroprevalence. Testing volume, positivity rates and age-specific anti-HAV seroprevalence rates by year and geographic distribution are described. Results and discussion: A total of 501 083 HAV IgM results were retrieved, of which 16 423 (3.3%) were positive, 484 259 (96.6%) negative and 401 (0.1%) equivocal; and 34 710 HAV total antibody/IgG tests of which 30 675 (88.4%) were positive, 4 020 (11.6%) negative and 15 equivocal. Whereas IgM positivity was highest among the 1–4 year age group (33.5%) and lowest among patients >45 years (<0.5%), total antibody positivity ranged from its lowest level of 52.7% in the 1–4 year age group increasing to levels of >90% only after 25 years of age. Conclusion: Anti-HAV total antibody testing within the South African public health sector demonstrates seroprevalence rates reach levels >90% only in adulthood, suggesting South Africa could be in transition from high to intermediate endemicity. Prospective studies with geographically representative sampling are required to confirm these findings and evaluate provincial and urban/rural heterogeneity.
- ItemHepatitis B sero-prevalence in children under 15 years of age in South Africa using residual samples from community-based febrile rash surveillance(Public Library of Science, 2019-05-31) Prabdial-Sing, Nishi; Makhathini, Lillian; Smit, Sheilagh Brigitte; Manamela, Morubula Jack; Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen; Cohen, Cheryl; Suchard, Melinda ShelleyIntroduction and methods: Hepatitis B is a vaccine preventable disease and is notifiable in South Africa. Hepatitis B vaccination was incorporated into the Expanded Programme on Immunisation in South Africa in 1995. We used a convenience sample from community-based febrile rash surveillance in 2013 to estimate hepatitis B sero-prevalence. Of samples serologically negative for acute measles infection, 450 samples spanning nine provinces of South Africa were tested for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), hepatitis B surface antibody (anti-HBs) and hepatitis B core antibody (anti-HBc). Results: Two children (2/450; 0.4%) tested positive for HBsAg. Three hundred and three children (67.3%) had evidence of vaccine induced immunity. Vaccine induced immunity was present in 80.2% of 1–5 year olds, but only 60.3% of 10–14 year olds. Natural immunity, indicating exposure to circulating hepatitis B, was present in 13/450 (2.9%) children. Conclusion: Chronic hepatitis B in South African has decreased in prevalence from highly endemic levels prior to vaccine introduction to approximately 0.4% in this sample, demonstrating impact of a successful vaccination programme 18 years after introduction. Decreased vaccine-induced immunity with increasing age may reflect waning antibody titres over time.
- ItemRubella vaccine introduction in the South African public vaccination schedule : mathematical modelling for decision making(MDPI, 2020-07) Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen; Edoka, Ijeoma; Wiysonge, Charles S.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Winter, Amy K.Background: age structured mathematical models have been used to evaluate the impact of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) introduction into existing measles vaccination programs in several countries. South Africa has a well-established measles vaccination program and is considering RCV introduction. This study aimed to provide a comparison of different scenarios and their relative costs within the context of congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) reduction or elimination. Methods: we used a previously published age-structured deterministic discrete time rubella transmission model. We obtained estimates of vaccine costs from the South African medicines price registry and the World Health Organization. We simulated RCV introduction and extracted estimates of rubella incidence, CRS incidence and effective reproductive number over 30 years. Results: compared to scenarios without mass campaigns, scenarios including mass campaigns resulted in more rapid elimination of rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Routine vaccination at 12 months of age coupled with vaccination of nine-year-old children was associated with the lowest RCV cost per CRS case averted for a similar percentage CRS reduction. Conclusion: At 80% RCV coverage, all vaccine introduction scenarios would achieve rubella and CRS elimination in South Africa. Any RCV introduction strategy should consider a combination of routine vaccination in the primary immunization series and additional vaccination of older children.
- ItemTreatment interventions for diarrhoea in HIV-infected and HIV-exposed children : a systematic review(African Field Epidemiology Network, 2018) Motaze, Nkengafac Villyen; Nwachukwu, Chukwuemeka; Humphreys, ElizaIntroduction : seventy percent of an estimated 10 million children less than five years of age in developing countries die each year of acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, measles, malaria, malnutrition or a combination of these conditions. Children living with Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are at risk of diarrhoea because of drug interactions with antiretroviral therapy and bottle feeding. This may be aggravated by malnutrition and other infectious diseases which are frequent in children living with HIV. Objective: to evaluate treatment interventions for diarrhoea in HIV infected and exposed children. Methods: a comprehensive search was conducted on 02 June 2016 to identify relevant studies for inclusion. We included randomised controlled trials of HIV infected or exposed children under 15 years of age with diarrhoea. Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion, assessed risk of bias (RoB) and extracted data using a pre-designed data extraction form. Results: we included two studies (Amadi 2002 and Mda 2010) that each enrolled 50 participants. The RoB was assessed as low-risk for both included studies. There was no difference in clinical cure and all-cause mortality between nitazoxanide and placebo for cryptosporidial diarrhoea in Amadi 2002. In Mda 2010, there was a reduction in duration of hospitalisation in the micronutrient supplement group (P < 0.005) although there was no difference in all-cause mortality. Conclusion: there is low certainty evidence on the effectiveness of nitazoxanide for treating cryptosporidial diarrhoea and micronutrient supplementation in children with diarrhoea. Adequately powered trials are needed to assess micronutrients and nitazoxanide, as well as other interventions, for diarrhoea in HIV-infected and-exposed children.