Browsing by Author "Makatjane, Katleho Daniel"

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    The analysis of the 2008 US financial crisis : an intervention approach
    (International Foundation for Research and Development, 2018) Makatjane, Katleho Daniel; Molefe, Edward Kagiso; Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum
    The current study investigates the impact of the 2008 US financial crises on the real exchange rate in South Africa. The data used in this empirical analysis is for the period from January 2000 to June 2017. The Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) intervention charter was used to carry out the analysis. Results revealed that the financial crises period in South Africa occurred in March 2008 and significantly affected the exchange rate. Hence, the impact pattern was abrupt. Using the SARIMA model as a benchmark, four error metrics; to be precise mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean error (ME) and Mean percentage error (MPE) was used to assess the performance of the intervention model and SARIMA model. The results of the SARIMA intervention model produced better forecasts as compared to that one of SARIMA model.
  • Thumbnail Image
    Item
    Trends in foreign agricultural trade and its impact on households in South Africa
    (2020-08-19) Van Wyk, Roscoe Bertrum; Van Wyk, Bianca Flavia; Makatjane, Katleho Daniel
    This study examines the trends in foreign trade in agriculture focusing on imports and exports for different sub-sectors and the identity of agricultural trade flows with specific regions and countries. Secondly, to understand how agricultural imports and exports improve the living standards of households in South Africa. The study uses a quantitative research approach by analysing trade data from the South African Revenue Services (SARS) and household data from the World Bank and OECD. The threshold vector autoregressive (TVAR) model is employed to establish a nonlinear causal relationship. The Diks-Panchenko nonparametric causality test revealed no causal relationship between the foreign agricultural trade and household consumption and household income in South Africa. However, with the increase of exported agricultural goods from South Africa, there are many significant benefits to South African households.