Browsing by Author "Lotter, Rousseau"

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    The impact of equity analyst recommendations on market attention, price-consensus and the behaviour of other analysts
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2015-12) Lotter, Rousseau; Smith, E. van der Merwe; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences. Dept. of Business Management.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Analysts are valuation specialists who advise both institutional clients and non-professional investors on the choice and timing of security purchases and sales. The analysts’ advice may have hugely beneficial or unfavourable outcomes for those who rely on them. This study investigated the possible influence of 901 local and international analysts’ recommendations that were issued from 1993 to 2011 on shares listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The short-term impact of recommendations on prices and possible behavioural tendencies among analysts, including a reported inclination to issue overly-positive recommendations, were respectively investigated in the first two empirical chapters. Thirdly, the success rate of analysts to issue recommendations with an advised directional impact and possible herding behaviour among analysts were researched. The empirical chapters conclude with an investigation into changes in investor attention (as proxied by traded volumes) and price volatility around analysts’ recommendations. The efficient market hypothesis and the ‘differences of opinion’ theories were used as fundamental points of departure and interpretation. More than 37 000 recommendations, ranging from strong buy to strong sell, were used in an event-study methodology to analyse the market’s reaction to these recommendations. Advanced modelling techniques were implemented in Excel and VBA to analyse daily consensus opinions, positive- versus negative sentiment, analyst activity and reactions, the frequency of abnormal price reactions, abnormal price movements, abnormal traded volumes, and changes in price volatility surrounding recommendation revisions. The study found that analyst recommendations were followed by an abnormal reaction in prices and that the magnitude of a recommendation’s change (e.g. a three-step change from strong sell to buy versus a one-step change hold to buy) had a greater impact than a recommendation’s absolute level. A portfolio strategy revealed the possible benefit of recommendations for investors. Analysts issued their opinions using different patterns within the five possible recommendation categories, and issued the same proportion of negative recommendations during periods of low business confidence and economic contraction than during growth- and economic upswing phases. Analysts who issued more recommendations in total were not more influential than less active analysts, and not all analysts were able to issue recommendations with a large advised directional abnormal impact. As expected, recommendations that had a large abnormal price impact generated some herding activity among the other analysts who covered the same share. Investor attention increased around the issuance of recommendation revisions, and price volatility increased after large recommendation upgrades. In support of market efficiency, investors seemed able to trade at new price levels and execute their trades with sufficient liquidity following recommendations. Results that infer differences of opinion were present both among analysts and investors: competing analysts did not issue the same recommendations for the same shares and favoured different recommendations categories; and investors only acted on some of the recommendations. Furthermore, analysts did not have the same propensity to cause abnormal price reactions. Traded volumes increased around recommendation revisions, showing that investors paid attention to recommendations.