Browsing by Author "Krug, Rainer M."

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    Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes : experience across IPBES assessments
    (Resilience Alliance, 2019) Sitas, Nadia; Harmackova, Zuzana V.; Anticamara, Jonathan A.; Arneth, Almut; Badola, Ruchi; Biggs, Reinette, 1979-; Blanchard, Ryan; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Coetzer, Kaera; DasGupta, Rajarshi; den Belder, Eefje; Ghosh, Sonali; Guisan, Antoine; Gundimeda, Haripriya; Hamann, Maike; Harrison, Paula A.; Hashimoto, Shizuka; Hauck, Jennifer; Klatt, Brian J.; Kok, Kasper; Krug, Rainer M.; Niamir, Aidin; O'Farrell, Patrick J.; Okayasu, Sana; Palomo, Ignacio; Pereira, Laura M.; Riordan, Philip; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Valle, Mireia
    Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.
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    A framework to identify enabling and urgent actions for the 2020 Aichi Targets
    (Elsevier, 2014) Marques, Alexandra; Pereira, Henrique M.; Krug, Cornelia; Leadley, Paul W.; Visconti, Piero; Januchowski-Hartley, Stephanie R.; Krug, Rainer M.; Alkemade, Rob; Bellard, Celine; Cheung, William W. L.; Christensen, Villy; Cooper, H. David; Hirsch, Tim; Hoft, Robert; Van Kolck, Jennifer; Newbold, Tim; Noonan-Mooney, Kieran; Regan, Eugenie C.; Rondinini, Carlo; Sumaila, U. Rashid; Teh, Louise S. L.; Walpole, Matt
    In 2010, the parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 with the mission of halting biodiversity loss and enhance the benefits it provides to people. The 20 Aichi Biodiversity Targets (Aichi Targets), which are included in the Strategic Plan, are organized under five Strategic Goals, and provide coherent guidance on how to achieve it. Halfway through the Strategic Plan, it is time to prioritize actions in order to achieve the best possible outcomes for the Aichi Targets in 2020. Actions to achieve one target may influence other targets (downstream interactions);in turn a target may be influenced by actions taken to attain other targets (upstream interactions). We explore the interactions among targets and the time-lags between implemented measures and desired outcomes to develop a framework that can reduce the overall burden associated with the implementation of the Strategic Plan. We identified the targets addressing the underlying drivers of biodiversity loss and the targets aimed at enhancing the implementation of the Strategic Plan as having the highest level of downstream interactions. Targets aimed at improving the status of biodiversity and safeguarding ecosystems followed by targets aimed at reducing the direct pressures on biodiversity and enhancing the benefits to all from biodiversity and ecosystem services, were identified as having the highest levels of upstream interactions. Perhaps one of the most challenging aspects of the Strategic Plan is the need to balance actions for its long-term sustainability with the need for urgent actions to halt biodiversity loss.