Browsing by Author "Krige, Niel"

Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    The financial survival probability of living annuitants
    (AOSIS, 2013) Palmer, Duncan; Krige, Niel
    This study addresses the question of how long a given amount of capital will be able to fund a living annuitant if the following five parameters are known: expected retirement duration (i.e. years between date of retirement and date of death), return on investment, inflation, annual withdrawal amount and initial capital amount available. A model (the Pension Model) that graphically depicts the relationship between these parameters was developed. This model facilitates retirement planning by showing how retirement duration and withdrawal rates change the financial “Survival Probability” (SP), which is the probability of having enough capital to maintain a desired withdrawal rate for the expected retirement duration. The underlying model is based on long-term historical investment yields of equities, bonds and cash in South Africa using Monte Carlo simulation with Cholesky factorisation.
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    National sporting success and investor optimism
    (Stellenbosch : University of Stellenbosch Business School, 2010) Smith, Brendan; Krige, Niel
    Contrary to findings of overseas studies, the mood of South African investors seems to be influenced less by the outcomes of national sporting events.
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    Real age-adjusted life expectancy
    (University of Johannesburg, 2013) Palmer, Duncan; Krige, Niel
    This study summarises the development of a model to determine an individual’s adjusted life expectancy based on his Real Age. The model incorporates aspects such as gender, residing province, income, HIV status, ethnic background, weight, exercise, family illness history, stress, substance abuse and diet. Predicting life expectancy is vital in retirement planning for two reasons: 1) given the diverse nature of South Africa, the national average life expectancy cannot be applied to everyone; and 2) retirement duration forms a vital part in the retirement planning process. Retirees can make more informed financial investment decisions based on their Real Age, thus increasing the probability of having sufficient funds during retirement. Three representative examples of South African Real Age-adjusted life expectancies were simulated, predicting life expectancies of 67, 72 and 87 years, notably different from the 50 year average South African life expectancy.