Browsing by Author "King, David"

Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
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    Calculation of freight externality costs for South Africa
    (AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Swarts, Stefaan; King, David; Simpson, Zane P.; Havenga, Jan H.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.
    The purpose of this study is to quantify the marginal external costs associated with freight transport in South Africa. Six cost elements are included as externality cost items, namely, costs related to accidents, emissions, roadway land availability, policing, noise and congestion. Inputs in the calculations were a gravity-oriented freight flow model, a road transport cost model, actual transport costs for other modes, a warehousing cost survey, an inventory delay calculation and various national sources of information such as accident statistics and government budgets. Estimation techniques resulted in advances for externality cost measurement in South Africa. The quantification of the cost elements will be used to update the South African Freight Demand Model. The results show that the cost of transportation would have been 20% more if external factors were taken into account. The marginal rates of externalities can be used to develop scenarios based on alternative choices for South Africa’s freight transport infrastructure configuration.
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    Container terminal spatial planning : a 2041 paradigm for the Western Cape Province in South Africa
    (AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Havenga, Jan H.; King, David; Simpson, Zane P.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, Anneke
    This paper investigates the suitable location for an intermodal inland container terminal (IICT) in the city of Cape Town. A container market segmentation approach is used to project growth for container volumes over a 30-year period for all origin and destination pairings on a geographical district level in an identified catchment area. The segmentation guides the decision on what type of facility is necessary to fulfil capacity requirements in the catchment area and will be used to determine the maximum space requirements for a future IICT. Alternative sites are ranked from most suitable to least suitable using multi-criteria analysis, and preferred locations are identified. Currently, South Africa’s freight movement is dominated by the road sector. Heavy road congestion is thus prevalent at the Cape Town Container Terminal (CTCT). The paper proposes three possible alternative sites for an IICT that will focus on a hub-and-spoke system of transporting freight.
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    Extending freight flow modelling to Sub-Saharan Africa to inform infrastructure investments : trade data issues
    (AOSIS OpenJournals, 2012-11) Havenga, Jan H.; Simpson, Zane P.; King, David; Lanz, E. J.; Goedhals-Gerber, Leila L.; De Bod, Anneke
    This paper highlights the first attempt by researchers at Stellenbosch University to model freight flows between and for 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The model will be informed by and linked to the South African surface Freight Demand Model (FDM) given these dimensions. By analysing and collating available datasets and developing a freight flow model, a better understanding of freight movements between countries can be obtained and then used for long-term planning efforts. A simple methodology is envisaged that will entail a high-level corridor classification that links a major district in the country with a similar district in another country. Existing trade data will be used to corroborate new base-year economic demand and supply volumetric data that will be generated from social accounting matrices for each country. The trade data will also provide initial flow dynamics between countries that will be refined according to the new volumes. The model can then generate commodity-level corridor flows between SSA countries, and between SSA countries and the rest of the world, as well as intra-country rural and metropolitan flows, using a gravity-based modelling approach. This article outlines efforts to harmonise trade data between the 17 countries identified, as well as between these countries and the rest of the world as a first step towards developing a freight demand model for sub-Saharan Africa.
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    A logistics barometer for South Africa : towards sustainable freight mobility
    (AOSIS Publishing, 2016) Havenga, Jan H.; De Bod, Anneke; Simpson, Zane P.; Viljoen, Nadia; King, David
    ENGLISH SUMMARY : Background: South Africa has a disproportionately high freight transport demand owing to industrial development far from ports, low domestic beneficiation and improper modal use. Historical freight transport policy supported primary economic development, failing to preempt the changing economic structure and the resulting freight transport needs, resulting in excessive transport costs and externalities. Objectives: To share the macroeconomic freight transport challenges revealed by South Africa’s Logistics Barometer, and to identify key interventions to address these. Method: Freight flows are modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 83 commodity groupings and 372 geographical areas, culminating in a 30-year forecast at 5-year intervals for three scenarios, followed by distance-decay gravity modelling to determine freight flows. Logistics costs are calculated by relating these flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistic functions. Results: Long-distance transport remains the largest general freight typology and is, due to inefficient macro logistics design, extremely costly, both in terms of intrinsic and extrinsic costs. Conclusion: South Africa’s freight task will grow 2.5-fold by 2043. Logistics and externality costs are already untenable at current levels. The development of domestic intermodal solutions will support the drive towards sustainable freight mobility.