Browsing by Author "Jacobs, Edward Keenan"

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    “The ANC will rule until Jesus comes”: The determinants of loyalty, switching and exiting for the African National Congress in the 2019 elections
    (Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2023-03) Jacobs, Edward Keenan; Schulz-Herzenberg, Collette; Stellenbosch University. Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences. Dept. of Journalism.
    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Electoral volatility is considered a vital component in the optimal functioning of a multi-party democracy. The fact that parties can win or lose votes is what gives democracy meaning, as it is this threat of a loss of power that is essential in ensuring accountability and warding off complacency on the part of the incumbent. However, electoral change is only possible if there is a genuine likelihood that a portion of the electorate will switch their vote between parties. While South African electoral politics does exhibit some signs of vote switching, the growth in abstentions far outstrips the rise in switching. Indeed, voters are increasingly retreating to the exiting category, instead of moving their support to an alternative party. This process of ‘dealignment without realignment’ is ominous for South Africa’s process of democratic consolidation, as it not only depresses turnout, but also stifles electoral competition and volatility. Accordingly, this thesis investigates the motivations for both vote switching and exiting among the supporters of the African National Congress (ANC). This is done in order to understand the underlying mechanisms as to why some ANC voters are able to switch their vote, while other previously active ANC voters exit the party system and abstain when they become disillusioned with their traditional political home. In order to address this research problem, this study employed a cross-sectional research design with a quantitative methodology and makes use of public opinion data sourced from the Comparative National Election Project (CNEP) 2019 post-election survey. The analysis began with exploring the bivariate relationships between a variety of theoretically relevant factors and a 2014 ANC voter’s decision to switch their vote or exit in the 2019 election. The bivariate findings show that the decision to either switch parties or exit largely pivots around trust in opposition parties. 2014 ANC voters with high levels of trust in the opposition are likely to switch parties in 2019, while distrust in opposition parties induces exiting. This thesis also conducted a multinomial logistic regression, which controlled for other significant predictors of switching or exiting. The model showed that exiters are motivated by variables that typically drive turnout, such as age, partisanship, gender and campaign attention; while switchers are dissatisfied with, and distrustful of the ANC, perceive the Democratic Alliance (DA) as inclusive, and are overwhelmingly urban. However, the results show that the more a voter trusts the opposition, the more likely they are to switch rather than to exit. The main thrust of this analysis is therefore that the transition to opposition parties is, in part, marred by an inability to identify a trustworthy and racially inclusive political alternative to the ANC. As such, to arrest the current ‘dealignment without realignment’ trend and stimulate electoral volatility, levels of trust and inclusivity relating to opposition parties ought to be augmented. Opposition parties thus need to work towards presenting themselves as trustworthy, legitimate and inclusive options to the majority of the electorate.